NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1201 Postby weeniepatrol » Mon Oct 27, 2025 12:08 am

Best trolljob I’ve ever seen
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1202 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Oct 27, 2025 12:09 am

Travorum wrote:
Keldeo1997 wrote:Recon turned back around and is going back in.


Please set the "It's so over" meter to "We're so back"



Thank god.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1203 Postby chaser1 » Mon Oct 27, 2025 12:10 am

WaveBreaking wrote:Recon just made a U-turn

https://i.imgur.com/vpsrHPS.png


ARE YOU FLIPPING KIDDING ME :eek:
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1204 Postby Hurricane2022 » Mon Oct 27, 2025 12:12 am

chaser1 wrote:
WaveBreaking wrote:Recon just made a U-turn

https://i.imgur.com/vpsrHPS.png


ARE YOU FLIPPING KIDDING ME :eek:

Stay calm and hold tight to your wine, bro.
I also hope everything is fine with the crew. May God bless and protect them.
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Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1205 Postby chaser1 » Mon Oct 27, 2025 12:15 am

Hurricane2022 wrote:
chaser1 wrote:
WaveBreaking wrote:Recon just made a U-turn

https://i.imgur.com/vpsrHPS.png


ARE YOU FLIPPING KIDDING ME :eek:

Stay calm and hold tight to your wine, bro.


Dude?! Like SO much seemingly happens when you step away for 5 minutes :roflmao:
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1206 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Oct 27, 2025 12:16 am

Image
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1207 Postby Teban54 » Mon Oct 27, 2025 12:16 am

Travorum wrote:Does Melissa have the highest CI# in Atlantic ADT history? Melissa's CI# just hit 7.8 with the most recent analysis, and the closest I could find in the Atlantic archives going back to ADT's implementation was Milton at a CI# of 7.7.

I assume you're looking at the CIMSS archives; the NOAA archives somehow have different data, with Milton's CI# only peaking at 7.4.

Checking the CIMSS archives, indeed it is:

  • 8.1: Melissa
  • 7.7: Milton
  • 7.3: Irma, Eta
  • 7.2: Rita, Michael
  • 7.1: Dean, Maria, Lorenzo (2019)
  • 7.0: Bill (2009), Matthew, Iota, Kirk (2024), Humberto (2025)
It's possible that the algorithm may have been improved since 2003, so the early comparisons may not be totally applicable. Case in point, Rita was the only storm in 2003-2005 that made this list.

Updated with the latest CI 8.1 for Melissa.
Last edited by Teban54 on Mon Oct 27, 2025 10:10 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1208 Postby Hurricane2022 » Mon Oct 27, 2025 12:19 am


NEVER EVER do this again, recon!
Image
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1209 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Oct 27, 2025 12:21 am

I remember the stress going on during Hurricane Eta. Also right around Halloween too.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1210 Postby Hurricane2022 » Mon Oct 27, 2025 12:22 am

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Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1211 Postby Hurrilurker » Mon Oct 27, 2025 12:22 am

They turned around and then turned around again? What the heck, never seen that before.

If they make it in I'm gonna say 922mb, this thing can't keep defying physics with a satellite presentation like that forever.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1212 Postby chaser1 » Mon Oct 27, 2025 12:25 am

galaxy401 wrote:I remember the stress going on during Hurricane Eta. Also right around Halloween too.


I dont remember whether that was a NOAA or Air Force recon? With Melissa, we've already had one NOAA flights aborted, correct? I dont recall if a single storm had resulted in aborted flights by both agencies though
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1213 Postby Teban54 » Mon Oct 27, 2025 12:27 am

Image
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1214 Postby Travorum » Mon Oct 27, 2025 12:34 am

Still tons of lightning in the core:

Image
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1215 Postby chaser1 » Mon Oct 27, 2025 12:35 am



Hmm, a reflection of the mountainous down-slope dryer air being drawn into the northern quad?
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1216 Postby Hurricane2022 » Mon Oct 27, 2025 12:35 am

I'm still awake because of this reconnaissance mission. Tomorrow is going to be a terribly bad day at work. But at least I'll get to see them find Melissa very stable and cheerful at her 125 kt/930 mb.
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Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1217 Postby chaser1 » Mon Oct 27, 2025 12:36 am

Has got to be sub 920. Have we determined if Air Force is still enroute?
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1218 Postby sasha_B » Mon Oct 27, 2025 12:37 am

ADT CI 8.0 over the Atlantic. Remember when people were wondering if TS Melissa would dissipate before making Cat 1?
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1219 Postby Travorum » Mon Oct 27, 2025 12:39 am

Hurricane2022 wrote:I'm still awake because of this reconnaissance mission. Tomorrow is going to be a terribly bad day at work. But at least I'll get to see them find Melissa very stable and cheerful at her 125 kt/930 mb.


This is the best looking mid-range Category 4 that ADT is convinced is a record setting 170kts that I've ever seen.

BTW ADT just hit a CI# of 8.0, might not see that again in the atlantic in my lifetime.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 OCT 2025 Time : 051021 UTC
Lat : 16:16:48 N Lon : 77:35:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
8.0 / 888.9mb/170.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
8.0 8.2 8.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : +18.8C Cloud Region Temp : -79.0C
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1220 Postby bob rulz » Mon Oct 27, 2025 12:40 am

Surely this has strengthened since the last pass, I'd be shocked if it was still a "mid-range cat 4".
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