NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

NHC adjusted the intensity up as it reaches Bermuda. They are calling for 90mph

[Stormgodess]

Movement 3mph!

[Fancy1002]

Considering she likely has more than 24 hours left until landfall, I think it’s an absolute certainty that she will pass Erin in pressure becoming the strongest storm of the season, how strong is the question.

[kevin]

NHC is forecasting a 140 kt landfall on Jamaica which would be the first landfall at cat 5 strength in the Atlantic since Dorian in 2019. It would also beat Gilbert, 110kt/960mb, for the strongest Jamaica landfall since reliable records started (1851 onwards).

[Travorum]

Hurricane watches are now in effect for Turks and Caicos & The Bahamas as far north as Cat island and Great Exuma. The current NHC forecast has Melissa passing there around 18z on the 29th at 90kts.

[Extratropical94]

Impressive wind profile all the way down

[TheDreamTraveler]

This is our third category 5 of the season. Which puts it right behind 2005 with amount of cat 5 storms. Actually insane

[kevin]

I thought the lobe to the NE of Melissa's CDO might induce weakening, but the lobe seems to disappear without issues. She continues to look better and better with a T#8.0 and a stable +20C eye. Until there is an EWRC this will just keep on intensifying.

[aspen]

Insane to wake up to this. 2025 now has the highest percentage of Cat 5 hurricanes out of any Atlantic hurricane season thus far (23%), despite all the factors limiting development this year.

[USTropics]

Insane to wake up to this. 2025 now has the highest percentage of Cat 5 hurricanes out of any Atlantic hurricane season thus far (23%), despite all the factors limiting development this year.

Some stats for this season:

• We've had 13 named storms -> 4 became major hurricanes -> all 4 had RI events -> 3/4 attained category 5 status (Gabrielle peaked at 140 mph, cat4)
• We've had 20.5 hurricane days in the Atlantic this season, roughly half (9.5) were major hurricane days
• If Melissa remains a major hurricane through Wednesday, we'll have had ~13 major hurricane days -> that would be the combined total of ALL other basins this season

[eastcoastFL]

Movement 3mph!

With forward speed slowing she's probably starting to make her turn towards the north.

[eastcoastFL]

Considering she likely has more than 24 hours left until landfall, I think it’s an absolute certainty that she will pass Erin in pressure becoming the strongest storm of the season, how strong is the question.

Pressure is down to 919mb now. I wonder if she can make a run towards 900 or below before landfall. For Jamaica's sake I'd hope not.

[kevin]

Raw T# up to 8.1 now and the CDO is cooling again, the average CDO temperature is now approaching -79C. Melissa has been steadily intensifying at a rate of 3 mb/hr during the latest recon passes. With the continued cooling of the CDO and the small eye I wouldn't be surprised if this increases to 4 or 5 mb/hr. Another 4 - 5 hours without an EWRC and this will go sub-900 mb.

[kevin]

The eye is noticeably contracting on the 30-minute loop. Sorry for spamming the thread, but I just woke up and this is insane. Despite Erin & Humberto, Melissa is solidifying its position as THE hurricane of the season.

[abajan]

NHC is forecasting a 140 kt landfall on Jamaica which would be the first landfall at cat 5 strength in the Atlantic since Dorian in 2019. It would also beat Gilbert, 110kt/960mb, for the strongest Jamaica landfall since reliable records started (1851 onwards).

To be honest, I'm more concerned about the rainfall. There's a region in the Blue Mountains called Silver Hill that, 116 years ago, recorded 100+ inches of rainfall preceding and during the passage of another slow-moving (albeit, far less intense) hurricane.

The following address to the nation of Jamaica by their prime minister (Hon. Andrew Holness) was made shortly before Melissa's current intensity was known.



Link: https://youtu.be/dPUS1XzXD9E

[aspen]

Maybe another 2 hours before the planes get in there. There’s a real chance they find something sub-910. Possibly some historic center fixes coming up this morning.

[michelinj]

With the eye really contracting at the moment, I do wonder if we'll see a short-lived peak in the next few hours before EWRC sets in again. If so then you hope it's not a smooth one that gives it time to re-intensify further.

Edit: A decent amount of wobbling going on with the eye at the moment too, will be interested to see what the planes find.

[Stormybajan]

Melissa has become an historic THIRD Category 5 hurricane of the season, only 2005 has had more in one go! Also for a season thats only had 5 hurricane 4 have been atleast category 4! When you factor in that unusual break from August 28th-September 17th this will be a very strange season to look back on..In anycase this is pretty dire for Jamaica. Even if Melissa weakens 20 mph she will still become the strongest landfall on the island in recent memory, plus the fact its moving slowly just means the effects will occur for DAYS instead of hours

[Stormgodess]

Melissa has become an historic THIRD Category 5 hurricane of the season, only 2005 has had more in one go! Also for a season thats only had 5 hurricane 4 have been atleast category 4! When you factor in that unusual break from August 28th-September 17th this will be a very strange season to look back on..In anycase this is pretty dire for Jamaica. Even if Melissa weakens 20 mph she will still become the strongest landfall on the island in recent memory, plus the fact its moving slowly just means the effects with occur for DAYS instead of hours
[url]https://i.postimg.cc/4nkWpJb1/10272356.gif [/url]

And it's breaking my dang heart seeing people across the net that are on the island thinking that they will be ok if not in the path of the eye?

We've all seen alot of storms, do yall predict any safe areas on the island to actually try to relocate to? And I imagine the entire island will be without power for an extended period. All I know to suggest to people is alot of water storage and trying to locate anyone they know now while they still have internet, who may have a well with a hand pump? And collect all the canned goods they can?

[USTropics]

Melissa has become an historic THIRD Category 5 hurricane of the season, only 2005 has had more in one go! Also for a season thats only had 5 hurricane 4 have been atleast category 4! When you factor in that unusual break from August 28th-September 17th this will be a very strange season to look back on..In anycase this is pretty dire for Jamaica. Even if Melissa weakens 20 mph she will still become the strongest landfall on the island in recent memory, plus the fact its moving slowly just means the effects with occur for DAYS instead of hours
[url]https://i.postimg.cc/4nkWpJb1/10272356.gif [/url]

And it's breaking my dang heart seeing people across the net that are on the island thinking that they will be ok if not in the path of the eye?

We've all seen alot of storms, do yall predict any safe areas on the island to actually try to relocate to? And I imagine the entire island will be without power for an extended period. All I know to suggest to people is alot of water storage and trying to locate anyone they know now while they still have internet, who may have a well with a hand pump? And collect all the canned goods they can?

This will be the strongest tropical cyclone to ever directly make landfall and impact Jamaica, and the first direct major hurricane landfall really since Gilbert in 1988:


For all intent and purposes, the island of Jamaica (and their citizens) have not experienced an event of this magnitude ever. It can be hard as a meteorologist to balance the science (particularly when I specifically study rapid intensification events) and the humanity perspective, knowing this will devastate multiple countries and countless lives.