NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[eastcoastFL]

Now she's just showing off. 197 kt at 920 mb, that's probably only about 50 - 70 meters above the surface

https://i.imgur.com/GHwO5yK.png

Makes me wonder about folks that might seek high ground to avoid flooding. What's the wind going to be like at these higher elevations?

[Beef Stew]

She’s probably a 150 kt storm, if not even stronger. We’ll see if there’s a bump at the intermediate advisory. Totally depends on what weight they give to the data from the dropsondes.

[Ubuntwo]

Looks like a "CCC" pattern in Melissa. The GFS's solution is becoming reality, fortunately for Jamaica

Unfortunately, this aged like room temp milk.

[dukeblue219]

Now she's just showing off. 197 kt at 920 mb, that's probably only about 50 - 70 meters above the surface

https://i.imgur.com/GHwO5yK.png

Makes me wonder about folks that might seek high ground to avoid flooding. What's the wind going to be like at these higher elevations?

l

High winds, yes, but better than high winds and flooding.

Winds do drop off pretty quickly over land, so I wouldn't recommend staying at lower elevation near the coast just because the over-water winds aloft are insane. It's all considered as part of the official evac orders.

[Hurricane2022]

[rwfromkansas]

I don't follow the tropics much, but this one is a monster. What are the chances of it clipping the far SW side of the island? It seems to still be mostly going west. No real north turn yet, and each advisory just "moves" the turn just a little bit west. Much further west and it will be wrong again...

Its heading just a tad north of due west. Forward speed has decreased which typically signals that it's beginning to make its turn so I'd bet on it sticking pretty close to the current NHC track. Plus once the trough gets a hold of it, the storm will get pulled to the NE pretty quick.

Yeah the satellite on the last page shows a pretty convincing bump north that seems to be a resuming of that direction. Darn. Was hoping for a miracle.

[BobHarlem]

Radar Loop, it's a bit behind satellite, but north bump evident at the end here also. (Jamaica met office playing with zoom levels)

[kevin]

Walked away from my laptop for a few minutes only to see the AF plane going in for their 5th pass! Absolute champs.

[Beef Stew]

We should be getting our final center pass for the next ~6 hours shortly

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/CIRA_CSU/status/1982852441252213234

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1982837687045247295

[mrbagyo]

906.8 extrap
152 FL

It might have peaked

[Hurricane2022]

Another pause is ongoing.

[Fancy1002]

Why did they exit through the south or south west, it seems the strongest section of the storm is on the east

[GCANE]

No sign of any type of the core drying on latest drop.
Even if it starts drying out now, the effect of an EWRC would be minimal for Jamacia.
This is the worst-case scenario.
Turn to the north underway.
Pray for Jamacia

[ScottNAtlanta]

About the NOAA plane that had to turn back this morning due to turbulence

“NOAA aircraft left the storm early after experiencing severe turbulence in the southwestern eyewall,” the National Hurricane Center wrote in Melissa’s latest forecast discussion.

Hurricane hunters are no stranger to powerful winds and intense turbulence, so what happened Monday morning is remarkable. These teams routinely fly specialized aircraft into the most powerful storms on the planet to collect weather data, which is used to improve track and intensity forecasts.

But this flight was “definitely the most turbulent I’ve ever experienced,” Andy Hazelton, a hurricane expert who confirmed he was on the plane, said on X.

Aircraft positioning data shows that the plane — a WP-3D Orion — was able to take at least two passes through Melissa’s center, collecting critical weather data before experiencing the dangerous turbulence that sent researchers heading for safety.

[crownweather]

Radar Loop, it's a bit behind satellite, but north bump evident at the end here also. (Jamaica met office playing with zoom levels)

https://i.postimg.cc/sx6R7P6z/Jamaica-Radar-Melissa-recent-1.gif

Do you have a link for updated radar imagery from Jamaica Met Office?

[Fancy1002]

Did they miss the center of the eye again, because of the mesovorticies?

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

The last Category 5 landfall in the Atlantic was Dorian (2019). There have only been 18 Category 5 landfalls in this basin in the last 100 years.

[aspen]

Probably temporarily stabilizing around 905-907 mbar and 150 kt. Although an argument can be made for 155 kt or even 160 kt due to the incredibly intense dropsonde readings suggesting those FL winds are translating well to the surface.

[CrazyC83]

I'd go with 150 kt and 906 mb based on all the data.