NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[Hurricane2022]

Meanwhile in the WPAC basin and the Philippines...looks like they're also about to get their own Melissa if the Google AI ensembles and ECMWF are correct.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/FlynonymousWX/status/1982915178221191411

[TheHurricaneGod]

Easily the best eye penetration videos I've ever seen!

[tolakram]

saved loop

[msbee]

[quote="skillz305"]Just came by to say I’m praying for Jamaica.

[/quot
Everyone here on st maarten Atlantic is praying for Jamaica too. It is the main topic of on the island. We all know Jamaican people who live here who have families there. We all know what it was like to live through Irma. And we know what is about to happen in Jamaica. It’s very scary.

[Hurricane Mike]

5pm update for anyone interested
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ehGhpWEivtU

[MGC]

Impressive symmetry of Melissa's clouds. Just about a perfect as a TC can get. Might get a bit stronger but I think the hurricane is topped out. Going to be terrible for Jamaica. Feel real bad for the people there as I know what they are going to go through......MGC

[Blown Away]

Meanwhile, Melissa continues moving W of the track...

[ATDoel]

Am I crazy or has Melissa been moving west for two hours now? I thought it was a wobble but wobbles don’t last this long.

[CycloysisNegative]

The center appears to be west of the most western point in Jamaica now. I think landfall will be a lot closer to Savanna la Mar than Treasure Beach now.

[StormPyrate]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/FzNz202m/Melissa2.jpg [/url]

Meanwhile, Melissa continues moving W of the track...

what resource is this, I have been looking for overlay on the official track for hours

[StormPyrate]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/FzNz202m/Melissa2.jpg [/url]

Meanwhile, Melissa continues moving W of the track...

what resource is this, I have been looking for overlay on the official track for hours

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This is definitely one of the more p*ssed off looking hurricanes I've seen in the Atlantic.

[Teban54]

You know that the CDO is violent when the pink/CDG colors just start blinking rather than rotating... But it looks like Melissa is still making an attempt at wrapping it around.

[Ivanhater]

It has been moving west of forecast all day. This may miss to the left. Less people in the core is a good thing

[Kingarabian]

Just incase no one has posted one of these yet:

Current Intensity Analysis





UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 OCT 2025 Time : 204020 UTC
Lat : 16:33:35 N Lon : 78:28:48 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.8 / 896.4mb/164.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.8 7.8 7.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : +19.7C Cloud Region Temp : -77.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 107nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : GOES19
Satellite Viewing Angle : 19.8 degrees

[kevin]

Raw T# is on the rise again, fluctuating between 7.8 and 7.9. Purely from a Dvorak satellite perspective Melissa might be (one of) the best looking hurricanes in the Atlantic in the satellite era together with Gilbert and Wilma.

[psyclone]

I can imagine people evacuating west on Jamaica a couple days ago when the forecast was 30"+ central and east and as little as 2" on the west end. Oops

[ATDoel]

Is Melissa… pumping the ridge?!?

[aspen]

You know that the CDO is violent when the pink/CDG colors just start blinking rather than rotating... But it looks like Melissa is still making an attempt at wrapping it around.

https://i.imgur.com/B8jx8ve.gif

I pointed this out earlier but look at how the CDO transitions to a near-perfect circle about halfway through, after being slightly oblate at the start of the loop. It’s somehow getting even better than it already was.