NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[crimi481]

S.W. wobbles. Melissa créating own environment

[zzzh]

Eye temp continues to drop. It's been dropping since 18z.

[zzzh]

D. 912 mb
E. 165 deg 27 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C10

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/CIRA_CSU/status/1982950752562844105

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Still a very compact wind field and a very powerful tiny storm overall.

She’s a Caribbean Milton.

The width of her eye is similar to what I remember reading about the size of the Labor Day hurricane’s eye. Wonder how they compare size-wise

[cheezyWXguy]

At first I thought the slight weakening might be due to another meld ongoing, but I’m not seeing any evidence of that. So now I’m wondering if it might be due to the increasing influence from the trough to the west trying to put a hard stop on its westward progress. I do recall the hafs earlier showing some slight weakening around this time, followed by a rebound after northward movement commenced and the storm motion aligns with the new mean flow. I’d be very happy if no rebound did occur, but I am curious if this is what we are seeing.

[WaveBreaking]

Now almost completely stationary on meso.

[michelinj]

At first I thought the slight weakening might be due to another meld ongoing, but I’m not seeing any evidence of that. So now I’m wondering if it might be due to the increasing influence from the trough to the west trying to put a hard stop on its westward progress. I do recall the hafs earlier showing some slight weakening around this time, followed by a rebound after northward movement commenced and the storm motion aligns with the new mean flow. I’d be very happy if no rebound did occur, but I am curious if this is what we are seeing.

That’s an interesting theory, could very well be right. The HAFS and other hi-res models are capable of picking out such fine details, remarkably. Let’s see!

[aspen]

At first I thought the slight weakening might be due to another meld ongoing, but I’m not seeing any evidence of that. So now I’m wondering if it might be due to the increasing influence from the trough to the west trying to put a hard stop on its westward progress. I do recall the hafs earlier showing some slight weakening around this time, followed by a rebound after northward movement commenced and the storm motion aligns with the new mean flow. I’d be very happy if no rebound did occur, but I am curious if this is what we are seeing.

I was thinking the same thing about the trough, although the slight weakening on the HAFS runs also seemed to be due to an eyewall meld.

[Hurricane2022]

[Zonacane]

I think everybody is overreacting to a steady state storm

[Teban54]

I think everybody is overreacting to a steady state storm

I would agree with you if not for the pretty significant drop in FL winds from the last pass, though. (I know that I could eat crow at any minute with the next pass on the way.)

[zzzh]

150kt FL in NE

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Going into the night time, storm may strengthen more. Many of you seem disappointed in the storm "stalling." The pressure is at 910 mb. Some crazy cold tops. The amount of lightning around the center for this long is more than I think I've seen. This is still an incredible storm and deserves its flowers.

I'm thinking it ramps up again in a few hours. Possibly start expanding the wind field just before landfall.

[Teban54]

150kt FL in NE

This batch is cut off exactly at the 150 kt FL from what I can see, so it's possible for higher winds to be reported later.

Edit: Also, still no double wind maxima until this 150 kt.

[Teban54]

AF pass: 156 kt FL in the SW quad, and 909.6 mb extrap. Seems to be intensifying again compared to the first pass (if only slightly), pending dropsonade.

Edit: NOAA pass was at almost the same time (and the same angle). 152 kt FL in the NE quad, 910.2 mb extrap. Hasn't reached peak winds to the SW yet.

[zzzh]

FL 156 in the SW. Really weird

[Travorum]

910.2mb extrap on NOAA, 909.6mb extrap on AF. 156kt FL winds on the AF plane and for what its worth 164kt SFMR, both in the SW quad.

[WaveBreaking]

158kt FL
909.6mbar extrap MSLP @ 16kt

[Nimbus]

150kt FL in NE

This batch is cut off exactly at the 150 kt FL from what I can see, so it's possible for higher winds to be reported later.

Edit: Also, still no double wind maxima until this 150 kt.

Is tropical tidbits getting overloaded, I got a few gateway errors and no update?
Oh there it is 909.6