NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[Kingarabian]

Don't look now, but Melissa just hit CI/FT 8.0 on ADT (again). Raw value of 8.3 at 0010z, which is as high as it's ever been.

Raw T# is back to where it was almost 24 hours ago which is especially impressive given that in the meantime the CI# at every timestep since then has stayed above any prior CI# that any hurricane has set since ADT was implemented.

Better than that. As of 0030z, Melissa now holds or ties the record for raw, adjusted, *and* final-T (as well as CI) on ADT:

2025OCT28 003020 8.0 888.8 170.0 8.0 8.4 8.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 17.48 -80.20 EYE

Yep. Only reason its currently not equating to hypercane status is due to the time of the year.

[Kingarabian]

Interesting, both recon planes are matching their flight profiles. Both did a NE/SW pass before, now they’re going in for a SE/NW pass together.

Maybe to gauge instrument accuracy? Or maybe safety reasons?

Very interesting.

[Travorum]

Don't look now, but Melissa just hit CI/FT 8.0 on ADT (again). Raw value of 8.3 at 0010z, which is as high as it's ever been.

Raw T# is back to where it was almost 24 hours ago which is especially impressive given that in the meantime the CI# at every timestep since then has stayed above any prior CI# that any hurricane has set since ADT was implemented.

Better than that. As of 0030z, Melissa now holds or ties the record for raw, adjusted, *and* final-T (as well as CI) on ADT:

2025OCT28 003020 8.0 888.8 170.0 8.0 8.4 8.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 17.48 -80.20 EYE

With how rapidly the CDG is building in the W half I think Melissa is about to max out the scale on Raw T#.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Link: https://youtu.be/9ndtttB5bP4

This is a day old but it's very harrowing

EDIT: Forgot how to embed YouTube videos again sorry

[zzzh]

Eye temp steadily increasing as it bottomed out around 2340z.

[ElectricStorm]

I really don't understand why there was an 8 hour gap in recon just for both planes to make the same passes at the same time. Especially when they were staggering them yesterday...

Should be near constant recon when a storm is closing in on landfall IMO

[Sunnydays]

Interesting, both recon planes are matching their flight profiles. Both did a NE/SW pass before, now they’re going in for a SE/NW pass together.

Maybe to gauge instrument accuracy? Or maybe safety reasons?

Very interesting.

I think safety reasons as well. Such a strong storm with fairly small eye...spinning so fast, maybe following each other is safer than coming in at different angles. Just a guess. But sounds logical.

[Teban54]

Raw T# is back to where it was almost 24 hours ago which is especially impressive given that in the meantime the CI# at every timestep since then has stayed above any prior CI# that any hurricane has set since ADT was implemented.

Better than that. As of 0030z, Melissa now holds or ties the record for raw, adjusted, *and* final-T (as well as CI) on ADT:

2025OCT28 003020 8.0 888.8 170.0 8.0 8.4 8.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 17.48 -80.20 EYE

Yep. Only reason its currently not equating to hypercane status is due to the time of the year.

I hope that Melissa will motivate a TCR mention and future research on calibrating Dvorak techniques to account for the tropopause, and the various factors that can influence it -- time of the year for sure, but also time of the day (Melissa's CDO cooling happened drastically at sunset despite likely little changes in strength), possibly latitude, etc.

Back in 2020, I've always had the question of why Eta had an exaggeratingly cool CDO but Iota didn't, despite both peaking at similar intensity. As seen from Melissa now, the answer may have been that Iota peaked in the middle of the day, and Eta at night.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Melissa looks and feels like a late-season, high-end WestPac super typhoon

[sasha_B]

Raw T# is back to where it was almost 24 hours ago which is especially impressive given that in the meantime the CI# at every timestep since then has stayed above any prior CI# that any hurricane has set since ADT was implemented.

Better than that. As of 0030z, Melissa now holds or ties the record for raw, adjusted, *and* final-T (as well as CI) on ADT:

2025OCT28 003020 8.0 888.8 170.0 8.0 8.4 8.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 17.48 -80.20 EYE

With how rapidly the CDG is building in the W half I think Melissa is about to max out the scale on Raw T#.

T8.5 Melissa would truly be something. And given the mismatch between ground conditions and satellite appearance, and the fact that (as the NHC has repeatedly stressed) a Cat 4/5 is a Cat 4/5, there's no reason not to root for it..... but alas, we're back down to a mere CI 8.1 / T# 8.2.

[zzzh]

Extrap 902.8mb!!!

[CrazyC83]

903 mb on the Air Force plane. This seems to be going upwards again...

[CrazyC83]

Extrap 902.8mb!!!

Also with the trends, you could make an easy case for 155 kt and possibly 160 kt.

[Keldeo1997]

uhhhh

902 with 20 kt barb so we are very close....

[Beef Stew]

Wow. I didn’t see that coming.

[Teban54]

NOAA pass: 162 kt FL to the SSE, 152 kt FL to the NNW, 909.2 mb extrap

AF pass: 156 kt FL to the SE, 902.8 mb extrap

Why the huge difference with their extrap pressures, though? Did NOAA miss the center?

[zzzh]

Dropsonde has 907/6kt so not 903mb yet.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Melissa looks and feels like a late-season, high-end WestPac super typhoon

[aspen]

902.8 extrap, holy cow. She’s going nuts again.

Edit: NOAA is still reporting 909-910mb. FL winds went up though.

[HurricaneRyan]

Is this supposed to still make landfall in Jamaica? the further west it gets the more I think it will miss it and then make landfall in Cuba instead.