NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[ljmac75]

Can we talk about how recon got into the storm and it looked like it had really weakened for like 1 pass? What a storm.

[Jr0d]

It hit the ridge, wobbled a bit, now stationary to just a bit of eastward motion IMO.

I wonder if the NNE motion is now starting with Melissa. She is a real monster tonight. Only good news is that if she continues to drift, she'll soon start upwelling cooler water. That's how Dorian started to weaken.

Unfortunately the warm water column is much deeper with Melissa making upwelling not significant. She will be making that north turn soon besides.

What is crazy is several models suggest Melissa's peak will be after she turns north....

[BobHarlem]

Evening radar loop

[Iceresistance]

I think Melissa killed this dropsonde

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3c0V.png

[wx98]

The 902 extrap from AF and the NOAA eye drop of 907 at 6 kts supports the notion that this has resumed intensifying.

The 902mb extrap is not supported by anything else at the moment including back to back drops from multiple planes. I'm not sure it's worth much.

It is lower than the previous pass. Watching for the trend, not the number…

[michelinj]

Might have to note down the centre fix each pass, without Melissa moving every new pressure measurement will overlap the last on the graphics hahaha

[Keldeo1997]

WV is going nuts again.

[Iceresistance]

Final ADT for Melissa is now 8.2, with Adjusted and Raw ADTs at 8.4 each. This is insanity

[Hurricane Mike]

Melissa looks like it strengthened a bit the last few hours. Incredible.

[AxaltaRacing24]

This is by far the best Melissa has looked.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/1157676956674949152/1432544365728759961/UQUGPw6.png?ex=69017068&is=69001ee8&hm=aaa584293d922b3f627f95c48c1430151e8aa1e1220f5a00f9a341f7696d2752&=&format=webp&quality=lossless&width=726&height=702

WV is going nuts again.

Literally looks like something out of the WPAC, yikes

[TeamPlayersBlue]

It hit the ridge, wobbled a bit, now stationary to just a bit of eastward motion IMO.

I wonder if the NNE motion is now starting with Melissa. She is a real monster tonight. Only good news is that if she continues to drift, she'll soon start upwelling cooler water. That's how Dorian started to weaken.

There wont be any upwelling that matters, 80* goes down to like 600m or something here.

Would need to stay in the same place for almost 24 hours for this to happen.

[Travorum]

The new record ADT Final T#/CI# is 8.2, at least for this half hour. The satellite presence of Melissa is almost unbelievable, even if it isn't reflected at the surface.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I think Melissa killed this dropsonde
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3c0V.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3c0V.png

Yeah... not much going to survive 175 knots.

[michelinj]

Looks like the NOAA plane is heading home. Leaves the AF plane left in there, worth noting that was the one with the 902.8 reading before and dropsonde showed 906 so worth remembering for future passes

[Beef Stew]

Just a jaw dropping satellite presentation. It’s hard to get a storm in the Atlantic… or any basin for that matter… that looks this textbook-perfect.

[Kazmit]

Wobbling due east now.

[eastcoastFL]

This is by far the best Melissa has looked.

And that's saying a lot because she's looked incredible for days now.

[eastcoastFL]

Wobbling due east now.

She's starting to feel the trough now. Should start seeing movement towards the north pretty soon

[Kazmit]