NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[Teban54]

Weird that despite the “I” curse, there’s no I storms here and 3 M storms.

Strongest of the "I" storms was Ivan at 910 mb, followed by Irma at 914 mb.

Crazy that Irma wasn't lower in her lifespan. Was she just too large?

Higher background pressure in the open Atlantic, especially at an earlier time of the year, would be my guess.

[Teban54]

One thing that is scary: these -90C cloud top outer bands are hitting Jamaica and likely producing massive flooding and mudslides in the mountains...and will continue to do so...

And when they stop doing so, it wouldn't be long before they're replaced with -90C CDO instead, or if you're lucky, a 150 kt eye.

[Hurricane2022]

Did I hear someone saying "next pass"??

[USTropics]

Hurricane models have Melissa strengthening up until landfall -- if that holds true we maaaaaybe could get in the ballpark of Wilma. Maybe.

That's truly the scary part, the satellite presentation and environment are quite literally pristine. The only thing holding Melissa back from reaching MPI is herself basically (e.g., inner core changes, like EWRC). Theoretically, Melissa could push ~875mb if the stars aligned:

[cheezyWXguy]

Hurricane models have Melissa strengthening up until landfall -- if that holds true we maaaaaybe could get in the ballpark of Wilma. Maybe.

Shaving off another 20mb could be a stretch, though I suppose it’s not impossible. Rivaling Allen’s wind speed record is also a tall order but seems more achievable to me if it can mix those winds aloft down a bit more efficiently.

[CrazyC83]

Did I hear someone saying "next pass"??
https://i.imgur.com/XEM9g60.png

It has to move around Jamaica. It won't fly over it due to the mountains unless at cruising altitude.

[wx98]

Weird that despite the “I” curse, there’s no I storms here and 3 M storms.

Strongest of the "I" storms was Ivan at 910 mb, followed by Irma at 914 mb.

Crazy that Irma wasn't lower in her lifespan. Was she just too large?

Probably higher background pressure in the Atlantic making it harder to get lower (but low relative to the surrounding environment).

[mrbagyo]

As good as it gets but ill still give the crown to Haiyan in terms of savage appearance (its pretty close)

[dukeblue219]

Did I hear someone saying "next pass"??
https://i.imgur.com/XEM9g60.png

The plane didn't turn around, if that's what you're suggesting. There's something weird in the very last data point so the plane looked stationary to the plotting app, which must have defaulted to pointing Eastward.

[drewschmaltz]

I just learned a bit about mountain "prominence" while hiking mt rainer. Though it's not the tallest in the lower 48, it has by far the most prominence. Is such a record kept for hurricanes? Their mb differential?

[ElectricStorm]

Did I hear someone saying "next pass"??
https://i.imgur.com/XEM9g60.png

I think that's just a TT error, it says bearing 90 degrees at 0kts. This happened with last night's mission a couple times as well.

[Hurrilurker]

The CDO is getting even smoother on recent meso floater frames. This is really pushing what is physically possible for an Atlantic storm.

I’m praying enough people in Jamaica have realized how bad this is and have taken all the necessary precautions, because I don’t like how public officials were downplaying Melissa’s threats a few days ago. Bad communication in a situation like this could lead to a devastating loss of life.

Even if they pack the shelters with tons of people, I'm starting to worry that structurally they may not be up to the task of this kind of storm intensity, like we're almost in 5+ territory. I guess the good news is it looks like Kingston will be spared a direct hit from the worst of the storm, if I were on the island I would head as far east as possible (though not on the coast).

[Category5Kaiju]

It's honestly crazy to think that Josh Morgerman, let alone quite a few other newer and younger storm chasers, are basically about to experience a top-tier hurricane with not only high-end Category 5 winds but also an extremely low pressure, likely in the 900s or even possibly sub-900 (well, I'm aware that Josh has been through Haiyan, so perhaps this is something more related towards the newer chasers in the field). This isn't an experience that many around the world can say that they've had, so to say that I'm starting to feel a bit nervous on behalf of some of the people who decided to chase this storm, let alone the residents of Jamaica who are in the path, is a bit of an understatement. Hope they're ready for what's to come.

[eastcoastFL]

[USTropics]

The CDO is getting even smoother on recent meso floater frames. This is really pushing what is physically possible for an Atlantic storm.

I’m praying enough people in Jamaica have realized how bad this is and have taken all the necessary precautions, because I don’t like how public officials were downplaying Melissa’s threats a few days ago. Bad communication in a situation like this could lead to a devastating loss of life.

Even if they pack the shelters with tons of people, I'm starting to worry that structurally they may not be up to the task of this kind of storm intensity, like we're almost in 5+ territory. I guess the good news is it looks like Kingston will be spared a direct hit from the worst of the storm, if I were on the island I would head as far east as possible (though not on the coast).

When accounting for wind damage, I would strongly suggest heading as far east as possible. 99% of the structures built in Jamaica can only withstand cat3 force winds, not many structures will be left standing where the eyewall crosses imo.

The other issue with Jamaica (and the one I am most concerned with) is that most of these cities/towns are built in the valleys due to the mountainous terrain. The potential for 3-4+ feet of rain and period of significant wind bursts creates an enormous threat for mud and land slides.

[Owasso]

\

N-S pass?

[Keldeo1997]

Almost broke the record again.

[Teban54]

In addition to the continued CDO cooling, it has also expanded while somehow becoming even more symmetrical:

[Hurricane2022]

https://roiapi.dapiya.top/roi/page

[Woofde]

In addition to the continued CDO cooling, it has also expanded while somehow becoming even more symmetrical:

I was just about to post about this. It's nearly perfectly circular! Truly insane storm.