NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2021 Postby dukeblue219 » Mon Oct 27, 2025 10:37 pm

I can't recall ever seeing such a perfectly consistent eye shape for so long.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2022 Postby disassociated_vort » Mon Oct 27, 2025 10:39 pm

Curious about a litte S2K history. Has there ever been a thread that hits triple digits in pages before landfall? Always impressed by this forum and collective knowledge.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2023 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Oct 27, 2025 10:39 pm

Loving the IR pics guys.

Jamaica: Thoughts and Prayers. Truly devastating
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2024 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Oct 27, 2025 10:41 pm

I do think this will surpass Milton at this rate
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2025 Postby Hurricane Mike » Mon Oct 27, 2025 10:41 pm

Last edited by Hurricane Mike on Mon Oct 27, 2025 10:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2026 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Oct 27, 2025 10:41 pm

disassociated_vort wrote:Curious about a litte S2K history. Has there ever been a thread that hits triple digits in pages before landfall? Always impressed by this forum and collective knowledge.


I'm pretty sure. The only reason this isn't higher is because it's not a CONUS threat.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2027 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Oct 27, 2025 10:41 pm

disassociated_vort wrote:Curious about a litte S2K history. Has there ever been a thread that hits triple digits in pages before landfall? Always impressed by this forum and collective knowledge.

Irma did I believe
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2028 Postby Teban54 » Mon Oct 27, 2025 10:41 pm

Reminder:

Teban54 wrote:Keep in mind that this AF plane's extrap pressure on the last pass was too low: it was extrapolating 903 mb, when two dropsonades from different aircraft confirmed 907 mb.

So hold your breath once you see the pressure, until the dropsonade confirms it.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2029 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Oct 27, 2025 10:44 pm

Teban54 wrote:Reminder:

Teban54 wrote:Keep in mind that this AF plane's extrap pressure on the last pass was too low: it was extrapolating 903 mb, when two dropsonades from different aircraft confirmed 907 mb.

So hold your breath once you see the pressure, until the dropsonade confirms it.


What is that supposed to mean? The NHC went with the 903mb.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2030 Postby Keldeo1997 » Mon Oct 27, 2025 10:44 pm

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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2031 Postby Hurricane2022 » Mon Oct 27, 2025 10:45 pm

AI-VIS Dapiya
Image
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2032 Postby Teban54 » Mon Oct 27, 2025 10:45 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
Teban54 wrote:Reminder:

Teban54 wrote:Keep in mind that this AF plane's extrap pressure on the last pass was too low: it was extrapolating 903 mb, when two dropsonades from different aircraft confirmed 907 mb.

So hold your breath once you see the pressure, until the dropsonade confirms it.


What is that supposed to mean? The NHC went with the 903mb.

Oh sorry, that was a quote I posted before the last pass that was already completed. The 907 mb was from two passes ago.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2033 Postby Owasso » Mon Oct 27, 2025 10:45 pm

033830 1649N 07830W 6967 02817 //// +102 //// 099115 119 101 007 01
033900 1648N 07830W 6968 02754 //// +094 //// 098130 135 117 032 01
033930 1647N 07830W 6956 02682 //// +092 //// 098141 144 137 033 01
034000 1645N 07831W 6958 02571 //// +098 //// 098148 152 156 045 01
034030 1644N 07831W 6941 02463 //// +116 //// 097122 151 164 016 01

034100 1643N 07831W 6978 02331 //// +172 //// 096066 097 158 002 01
034130 1641N 07831W 6955 02312 //// +175 //// 089024 049 055 002 01
034200 1639N 07831W 6978 02272 //// +192 //// 313008 019 018 003 01
034230 1637N 07830W 6958 02305 //// +187 //// 260034 047 026 003 05
034300 1636N 07831W 6996 02290 //// +158 //// 270061 068 /// /// 05
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2034 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 27, 2025 10:46 pm

The heights are down slightly from last pass. Now we wait for the drop...
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2035 Postby CronkPSU » Mon Oct 27, 2025 10:46 pm

disassociated_vort wrote:Curious about a litte S2K history. Has there ever been a thread that hits triple digits in pages before landfall? Always impressed by this forum and collective knowledge.


yeah, I think Ian was over 250 pages before landfall at least and others that threatened CONUS were over 100 pages...

if this was ANY threat to CONUS at all, this thread would be closer to 200 pages at least right now
Last edited by CronkPSU on Mon Oct 27, 2025 10:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2036 Postby zzzh » Mon Oct 27, 2025 10:46 pm

From the heights it looks like the pressure is not dropping.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2037 Postby aaaaaa » Mon Oct 27, 2025 10:49 pm

disassociated_vort wrote:Curious about a litte S2K history. Has there ever been a thread that hits triple digits in pages before landfall? Always impressed by this forum and collective knowledge.

Yes when big hurricane threat to landfall in usa like katrina, harvey, irma, ian
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2038 Postby Hurricane2022 » Mon Oct 27, 2025 10:50 pm

Looks like she has reached her big peak, as both IR and Radar are showing strong hints of an EWRC.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2039 Postby Keldeo1997 » Mon Oct 27, 2025 10:50 pm

Image

Another new record
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2040 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Oct 27, 2025 10:50 pm

Hurricane2022 wrote:Looks like she has reached her big peak, as both IR and Radar are showing strong hints of an EWRC.

The plane doesn’t show any sign of a double wind maxima
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