NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Can we expect an increase in storm surge forcasts for Mellisa as she strengthens? I realize topography plays a huge role, but I can't help but remember Katrina's 20ft + surge in Mississippi and wonder if 13ft for Melissa is lacking?

Katrina was much larger in size though, especially after the ERC. Now, if Melissa misses Jamaica, goes into an ERC and expands out, then that could be a major issue for Cuba. That is what happened in 1932.

[Fancy1002]

Please tell me recon is going to do one last pass. It can’t leave without us knowing for sure.

[dukeblue219]

Please tell me recon is going to do one last pass. It can’t leave without us knowing for sure.

Know what for sure? There's always nagging interest in one... more... pass!

[KirbyDude25]

Please tell me recon is going to do one last pass. It can’t leave without us knowing for sure.

The TCPOD lists it as being on station until 5:30Z, or about 75 minutes from now, and it's turning westward on Flightradar24. To me, that suggests it's going in for one more pass

[Travorum]

Again this doesn't mean anything as Melissa's intensity is well below what it's appearance would suggest, but ADT CI# just hit 8.5 for the first time ever in the Atlantic:

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 OCT 2025 Time : 034020 UTC
Lat : 16:37:12 N Lon : 78:30:36 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
8.5 / 871.5mb/185.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
8.5 8.6 8.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : +19.2C Cloud Region Temp : -81.4C

[Tekken_Guy]

All I want to know is if Melissa will join the 800 club or not.

[Jr0d]

161kts is about 185mph.

That in my amatuer is a reasonable estimation of max sustained surface winds, especially given all the other information.

Even if the drop measured a gust, no reason to believe there are not sustained winds that high reaching the surface.

[Fancy1002]

Please tell me recon is going to do one last pass. It can’t leave without us knowing for sure.

Know what for sure? There's always nagging interest in one... more... pass!

To know for sure whether it is reached sub 900 pressure. Even if it falls below to 899 or 898 over the next 30 minutes to an hour, it could start to rise before the next recon mission gets there. I would prefer that we have direct evidence rather than speculations.

[SconnieCane]

https://i.imgur.com/aNGOkJf.png https://i.imgur.com/G7rDKGe.png https://i.imgur.com/21uNj8K.png https://i.imgur.com/n1XxJo7.png https://i.imgur.com/1IYwggc.png

https://roiapi.dapiya.top/roi/page

What more does it need to be, ti be 'annular"?

A convective structure with virtually no outer banding, just a donut core. Melissa certainly has a donut core, but outer banding is much too prominent. More likely to see a structure like that in the open Atlantic than the Caribbean. See Isabel ‘03 as the textbook example.

Beat me to it. A lot of people seem to be under the impression that any intense TC with a symmetrical CDO is "annular," but there's more to it than that.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/BradyBGWX/status/1983023318513938699

[zzzh]

Those CDG's in the middle ring of the CDO reminds me of Patricia

[CrazyC83]

Unless an unscheduled mission is added, we will have about a 5 1/2 hour gap without Recon data in the storm. This plane leaves around 0530Z, and the next plane departs at 0800Z to arrive around 1100Z.

[Fancy1002]

Is that a fourth CDC ring? How does that make sense? Also, I might be using the wrong term.

[Hurrilurker]

Jamaica in November 1909 had 135 inches of rainfall.
https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2022A ... K/abstract

The slow movement of Melissa is going to dump heavy rain over a large area.

I would think they're already getting lashed pretty good, CDO still offshore but a ton of intense convection bubbling over the island right now. Vegetation and soil will already be loose by the time the Cat 4+ winds get there.

[Hurricane Mike]

I am guessing about 180-185 mph is quite possibly the current intensity.

[Exalt]

This thing looks like a history-making WPAC typhoon but instead of the Philippines it’s the Caribbean

[Owasso]

Jamaica in November 1909 had 135 inches of rainfall.
https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2022A ... K/abstract

The slow movement of Melissa is going to dump heavy rain over a large area.

I would think they're already getting lashed pretty good, CDO still offshore but a ton of intense convection bubbling over the island right now. Vegetation and soil will already be loose by the time the Cat 4+ winds get there.

From what I was seeing earlier today, downed trees blocking roads and collapsing house roofs.

[Owasso]

Here we go. Another north to south pass.

[SconnieCane]

The subtle (within the cone/margin of error) but definite west-of-track motion today must have given Josh fits, especially if he set up in Treasure Beach. Depending on how much of an east of due north angle it takes, he may have to be at Savanna la Mar or even further west to get the eyewall and it looks like there aren't any really main roads out of Treasure Beach. They're all narrow and either go through mountain passes or right along the coast, so they may have already become impassable earlier today.

[Owasso]

132kt FL, not fully through the eyewall though