NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[Stormybajan]

To watch Melissa hit those upper echelon heights yesterday into overnight will definitely be something all weather enthusiasts wont forget. Sadly, Melissa will probably be a hurricane everyone on the island of Jamaica wont forget either, 175 mph and 901 mb is disgustingly strong!! Especially for a storm of relatively small size to have such a deep pressure..7th strongest of alltime!!! Truthfully the CDO with the full pink ring yesterday , could have an argument for top 1-3 tropical appearances in this basin over the last 40 years!! Last year's strongest was 895 mb then followed up with 901mb...nasty work!

[cycloneye]

Another eyewall merger.

 https://x.com/KeviShader/status/1983105209099575364

[aspen]

It’s now almost 2 hours since the first recon flight was supposed to take off, and still nothing on either Tropical Tidbits or Cyclonicwx. Hopefully they didn’t cancel both flights for some reason. This needs coverage in its last several hours before landfall.

The 5am discussion says both flights are expected to head out this morning, so idk what’s going on.

[kevin]

Flightaware now mentions that NOAA42 is expected to depart in 20 minutes. Perhaps something is wrong with the other planes and NOAA42 is going again instead. I don't know, all we can do is wait and see.

[tolakram]

It’s now almost 2 hours since the first recon flight was supposed to take off, and still nothing on either Tropical Tidbits or Cyclonicwx. Hopefully they didn’t cancel both flights for some reason. This needs coverage in its last several hours before landfall.

The 5am discussion says both flights are expected to head out this morning, so idk what’s going on.

I imagine the goal is to be in the storm as close to landfall as possible.

[Hammy]

Another eyewall merger.

 https://x.com/KeviShader/status/1983105209099575364

and consistent with satellite, the eye is clearing out and stabilized once again

[Beef Stew]

What an absolutely historic storm. I’m simultaneously mesmerized in awe and also sick to my stomach knowing the lives this will invariably take in Jamaica and Cuba…

[aspen]

It’s now almost 2 hours since the first recon flight was supposed to take off, and still nothing on either Tropical Tidbits or Cyclonicwx. Hopefully they didn’t cancel both flights for some reason. This needs coverage in its last several hours before landfall.

The 5am discussion says both flights are expected to head out this morning, so idk what’s going on.

I imagine the goal is to be in the storm as close to landfall as possible.

They’d be cutting it incredibly close if the info about NOAA42 leaving shortly is correct. Maybe something’s wrong with the other NOAA plane like Kevin suggested. Both planes probably took quite a beating yesterday.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Flightaware now mentions that NOAA42 is expected to depart in 20 minutes. Perhaps something is wrong with the other planes and NOAA42 is going again instead. I don't know, all we can do is wait and see.

Thanks. I was looking at all the ten Air Force planes and forgot to look at NOAA's aircraft at the flight tracking site. I link to those various site here for the thirteen planes: https://tropicalatlantic.com/reconnaiss ... r_tracking

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Treasure Beach looks like the single worst place to be today on Earth... worst of the surge will be up by there.

[ronjon]

Looks like landfall near Black River to Alligator Beach between 10 am to noon. Kingston may not see hurricane winds as Melissa's wind field is rather compact (like Andrew). Montego Bay may see the western eyewall.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Air Force mission just started obs. They haven't taken off yet from Curacao.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

 https://x.com/That_WeatherGuy/status/1983004346750251120

[kevin]

Flightaware shows that AF303 (TEAL75) has now departed from Curaçao. Should arrive in about 110 minutes according to its average flight schedule.

[Nimbus]

Treasure Beach looks like the single worst place to be today on Earth... worst of the surge will be up by there.

Black river Methodist church is at the 11 foot level, hope people don't seek shelter there.

[Beef Stew]

The only saving grace is that with a compact wind field and a more westerly track, Kingston should be spared significant wind damage. But eastern Jamaica will still have to contend with significant inland flooding I’m afraid…

[grapealcoholic]

every single eyewall merge or replacement melissa has endured in her lifetime is/has-been silky smooth -- almost imperceptible

amazing storm

[GCANE]

Last drop from recon, about 6 hrs ago, shows a completely saturated eye.
Too late for any type of EWRC to have an effect on landfall.

Feeder band extends all the way thru southern Nicaragua into the east Pacific.

Won't be surprised if recon finds sub 900mb.
This is a 20 mile wide EF3 tornado.

God save Jamaica

[Beef Stew]

Melissa is probably the best satellite-era example of what the 1932 Cuba Hurricane would’ve looked and acted like to date. I’ve always been somewhat skeptical of that storm’s ability to remain a category 5 continuously for as many days as it did, but if it was going through a series of eyewall melds similar to what we’ve seen in Melissa, then it’s entirely plausible.

[Hurricane2022]

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