NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Flightaware now mentions that NOAA42 is expected to depart in 20 minutes. Perhaps something is wrong with the other planes and NOAA42 is going again instead. I don't know, all we can do is wait and see.

Thanks. I was looking at all the ten Air Force planes and forgot to look at NOAA's aircraft at the flight tracking site. I link to those various site here for the thirteen planes: https://tropicalatlantic.com/reconnaiss ... r_tracking

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Treasure Beach looks like the single worst place to be today on Earth... worst of the surge will be up by there.

[ronjon]

Looks like landfall near Black River to Alligator Beach between 10 am to noon. Kingston may not see hurricane winds as Melissa's wind field is rather compact (like Andrew). Montego Bay may see the western eyewall.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Air Force mission just started obs. They haven't taken off yet from Curacao.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

 https://x.com/That_WeatherGuy/status/1983004346750251120

[kevin]

Flightaware shows that AF303 (TEAL75) has now departed from Curaçao. Should arrive in about 110 minutes according to its average flight schedule.

[Nimbus]

Treasure Beach looks like the single worst place to be today on Earth... worst of the surge will be up by there.

Black river Methodist church is at the 11 foot level, hope people don't seek shelter there.

[Beef Stew]

The only saving grace is that with a compact wind field and a more westerly track, Kingston should be spared significant wind damage. But eastern Jamaica will still have to contend with significant inland flooding I’m afraid…

[grapealcoholic]

every single eyewall merge or replacement melissa has endured in her lifetime is/has-been silky smooth -- almost imperceptible

amazing storm

[GCANE]

Last drop from recon, about 6 hrs ago, shows a completely saturated eye.
Too late for any type of EWRC to have an effect on landfall.

Feeder band extends all the way thru southern Nicaragua into the east Pacific.

Won't be surprised if recon finds sub 900mb.
This is a 20 mile wide EF3 tornado.

God save Jamaica

[Beef Stew]

Melissa is probably the best satellite-era example of what the 1932 Cuba Hurricane would’ve looked and acted like to date. I’ve always been somewhat skeptical of that storm’s ability to remain a category 5 continuously for as many days as it did, but if it was going through a series of eyewall melds similar to what we’ve seen in Melissa, then it’s entirely plausible.

[Hurricane2022]

No comment

[Nimbus]

The only saving grace is that with a compact wind field and a more westerly track, Kingston should be spared significant wind damage. But eastern Jamaica will still have to contend with significant inland flooding I’m afraid…

Rain forecasts for Kingston probably won't end up historic, so people that live there will know where the flood and mud slide issues have occurred in the past and evacuate on the forecast. Dr Bird has some low elevation infrastructure that could be out for weeks though.

[michelinj]

Latest WV eye temp is -3.39C. Warmest yet

[Hypercane_Kyle]

It's hard to tell for sure but just looking at satellite I think Melissa is moving faster than expected. We may be looking at a landfall before 9-10am.

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/US_Stormwatch/status/1982919662418694336

[aspen]

It's hard to tell for sure but just looking at satellite I think Melissa is moving faster than expected. We may be looking at a landfall before 9-10am.

Recon picked really bad time to be late then. It may not get there in time before landfall.

[michelinj]

Both HAFS models have played with the idea of a slight east shift just before landfall and I wonder if we're starting to see that at the moment. Not massive but potentially landfall more Treasure Beach/Alligator Pond than Treasure Beach/Black River. We'll see though may be a wobble relating to EWRC

[Sciencerocks]

[Blown Away]

Melissa aiming for the Black River to Crane Corner area...