NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[mrbagyo]

892.5 extrap on P3 Orion

[Travorum]

173kt FL winds, wow.

[TheHurricaneGod]

[kevin]

NOAA center pass: 892.5 mb extrapolated pressure, 173 kt FL wind.

[aspen]

173 kt FL holy cow.

Think this is 892/160 now. Unbelievable.

[kevin]

173 kt FL is a guarantee to keep its 155 kt intensity. But it might even be sufficient to bump it to 160 kt considering how well Melissa is mixing its FL wind down to the surface.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Pretty consistent extrapolated pressure of 892-893 from two recons with dropsonde support from AF plane. Should see it drop a few MB.

[FireRat]

Holy cow!!! I cannot believe what I'm waking up to, SUB 900 landfall!!? No way, this is the Atlantic's Haiyan - are we seriously tying 1935, or even beating the 892 mb landfall!?

Melissa might just be the mother of all landfalling Atlantic hurricanes, prayers for Jamaica!!

[eastcoastFL]

This is unreal, sub 900 landfall is just about as bad as one can imagine. Big props to the men and women flying into this storm endlessly over the past few days! True heros.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/StormHQwx/status/1983171978497536122

[GCANE]

Eyewall drop, NW quad, 147 knot winds at the surface

[ScottNAtlanta]

Live Stream from Mandeville
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ov6mC9CdGVE

[kevin]

892mb/160kt it is. Unreal.

MIATCUAT3
Hurricane Melissa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1000 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

...CATASTROPHIC WINDS MOVING ONSHORE SOUTHERN JAMAICA...
...LAST CHANCE TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...
...1000 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION! TAKE
COVER NOW! Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious
injury, and loss of life. Residents in Jamaica that experience the
eye should not leave their shelter as winds will rapidly increase
within the backside of the eyewall of Melissa.

To protect yourself from wind, the best thing you can do is put as
many walls as possible between you and the outside. An interior room
without windows, ideally one where you can also avoid falling trees,
is the safest place you can be in a building. You can cover yourself
with a mattress and wear a helmet for added protection.

NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft find that Melissa continues to
strengthen with maximum sustained winds of 185 mph (295 km/h).The
minimum central pressure has fallen to 892 mb (26.34 inches) based
on NOAA and Hurricane Hunter Air Force Reserve aircraft data.

The next update will be provided with the full advisory package at
1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 78.1W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...26.34 INCHES

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/1083741758648766484/1432729207376711721/wind_pressure_timeseries_NOAA.png?ex=69021c8d&is=6900cb0d&hm=308901586b893e8405ffda8ce2c5e25d7bc83d83afceeebe294698774e6adcd3&=&format=webp&quality=lossless&width=1475&height=694

890 mbar?

[Kingarabian]

Wow this is crazy

[Beef Stew]

892 mb and 160 kts. Just insane.

[Fancy1002]

One more update or two, and it will tie or beat Allen’s wind speed. I never thought I’d see the day.

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1983167074383081911

[Beef Stew]

Not sure if we're going to get another pass or not before landfall

[Teban54]

With an official intensity of 892 mb / 160 kt, Melissa now holds the records of:

• 3rd lowest pressure, behind Wilma and Gilbert, and tied with Labor Day
• 2nd highest wind speed, behind Allen, and tied with Labor Day, Gilbert, Wilma and Dorian
• Lowest pressure and highest wind speed at landfall if maintained until then, tied with Labor Day for both (and Dorian for wind speed)