NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[Category5Kaiju]

I just broke out in a cold sweat now seeing the update.

Holy f***** s***.

[Beef Stew]

Well, it looks like that's going to be all all she wrote from recon prior to landfall. Not that it matters for Jamaica, but one more pass could've possibly have had us tying Allen's windspeeds and breaking Labor Day's MSLP. I'm just happy both planes were able to make it in, get this record-breaking data, and make it out in once piece.

[Travorum]

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1983174867462537491

[Tekken_Guy]

Is Wilma’s record in jeopardy? Or at least Gilbert’s second place?

[PavelGaborik10]

Is Wilma’s record in jeopardy? Or at least Gilbert’s second place?

Planes are leaving, so probably not.

Wilma would be safe, Gilbert was possibly beatable.

[ATDoel]

Is Wilma’s record in jeopardy? Or at least Gilbert’s second place?

Wilma's record is not unless ground obs find something crazy

[Beef Stew]

Is Wilma’s record in jeopardy? Or at least Gilbert’s second place?

Highly unlikely- we'd have to get a ground measurement of sub-888 mb, which is a solid 5 mb lower than the lowest reading recon had. Even if she does continue to deepen right up to a rapidly approaching landfall, the odds of catching that data on the ground are extremely low.

[Teban54]

Is Wilma’s record in jeopardy? Or at least Gilbert’s second place?

Planes are leaving, so probably not.

Wilma would be safe, Gilbert was likely beatable.

We can still get data from ground observers, such as Josh, in the event that Melissa actually deepens below 892 mb or even Gilbert's 888 mb.

Remember, the Labor Day hurricane's 892 mb record came from a ground report.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Look at these altitude measurements as the AF plane entered the eyewall. 150 meter swings. I've never seen turbulence like that. I bet they bailed because they didn't think the plane would survive another beating like that.

[WaveBreaking]

I thought Humberto would be the last time I’d wake to to something crazy this season, but nope, today I wake up to history being made. Wishing the best for Jamaica.

[GCANE]

Landfall estimated at 11:30 EDT

[Hypercane_Kyle]

These are some of the scariest recon passes I've ever seen. I can't imagine how bad it is on the ground.

[aspen]

Unbelievable drop in the S eyewall — 172 kt at the surface and increasing to 203 kt (!!!) at 916mb and 219 kt (!!!) at 906mb. Could 170 kt be justifiable with this?

[gib]

Utterly stunned. This is historic and incredible and catastrophic and tragic.

[NotoSans]

Planes are still at operational level at 700mb. Flight path could be different because the storm is now close to land, but there could be another pass.

[GCANE]

Over 700' drop in elevation in a few seconds in recon.
Momentarily weightless and breakfast less.

Heading back to the barn due to exceeding g-limit

[Fancy1002]

Over 700' drop in elevation in a few seconds in recon.
Momentarily weightless and breakfast less.

Heading back to the barn due to exceeding g-limit

What’s g limit?

[Chris_in_Tampa]

About that most recent sonde. (OB06 from NOAA mission 23)

Sondes have momentary winds, not 1 minute sustained.

I was looking up information about interpreting the two things mentioned below yesterday:


From:
https://www.noaa.gov/sites/default/file ... nan-sm.pdf



Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 210° (from the SSW)
- Wind Speed: 192 knots (221 mph)

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 157 gpm - 7 gpm (515 geo. feet - 23 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 195° (from the SSW)
- Wind Speed: 188 knots (216 mph)



192 * 0.8 = 153.6 knots = 177 mph based on mean boundary level
188 * 0.83 = 156.04 knots = 179 mph based on lowest 150 meters

So that sonde is in line with the 180mph wind.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Over 700' drop in elevation in a few seconds in recon.
Momentarily weightless and breakfast less.

Heading back to the barn due to exceeding g-limit

What’s g limit?

2.5Gs

[Michele B]

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1983174867462537491

Will Josh be streaming live?

I pray for his safety. It doesn't sound like his "safe" place is very safe.