NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion: Update= 185mph/892mb at 11AM

#2501 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 28, 2025 10:11 am

PavelGaborik10 wrote:Will likely landfall with winds of 190+ MPH, pressure sub 888-890.

This thing is intensifying right up until landfall, we just aren't going to have the data


We might get peripheral data that can be used to calculate. But I agree it is intensifying right up.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion: Update= 185mph/892mb at 11AM

#2502 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Oct 28, 2025 10:12 am

I'd say at this point any landfall MSLP estimates we get will be from storm chasers.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion: Update= 185mph/892mb at 11AM

#2503 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Oct 28, 2025 10:13 am

ScottNAtlanta wrote:Captured for it's historic significance
https://i.imgur.com/W5402Mm.gif

It kind of looks like patricia
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion: Update= 185mph/892mb at 11AM

#2504 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 28, 2025 10:13 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:I'd say at this point any landfall MSLP estimates we get will be from storm chasers.


Agreed, and it may not be in real time either. It may take some time to get the data since they won't have power or Internet probably.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion: Update= 185mph/892mb at 11AM

#2505 Postby wx98 » Tue Oct 28, 2025 10:13 am

Just heard from a friend that he knows someone who has family at a resort in Montego Bay. They have them on lockdown and are bringing meals to their rooms. Supposedly the resort has starlink and enough generator fuel for 7 days.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion: Update= 185mph/892mb at 11AM

#2506 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Oct 28, 2025 10:14 am

Just woke up and holy cow 892mb :eek:

Truly an all timer
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion: Update= 185mph/892mb at 11AM

#2507 Postby aspen » Tue Oct 28, 2025 10:19 am

PavelGaborik10 wrote:Will likely landfall with winds of 190+ MPH, pressure sub 888-890.

This thing is intensifying right up until landfall, we just aren't going to have the data

Josh seems to be in a good position to figure out the landfall MSLP. We probably have enough data from recon to justify 190+ mph.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion: Update= 185mph/892mb at 11AM

#2508 Postby sbcc » Tue Oct 28, 2025 10:19 am

tulum07 wrote:Where can I find the stream from Treasure Beach? Thank you.


https://www.youtube.com/live/z2HfoQ_HMfY
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion: Update= 185mph/892mb at 11AM

#2509 Postby Kazmit » Tue Oct 28, 2025 10:20 am

It looks like it's trying to take the path of least resistance over Jamaica, and hence the northern motion to maximize time over water.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion: Update= 185mph/892mb at 11AM

#2510 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Tue Oct 28, 2025 10:21 am

Any chasers out there live streaming?
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion: Update= 185mph/892mb at 11AM

#2511 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Oct 28, 2025 10:21 am

Kazmit wrote:It looks like it's trying to take the path of least resistance over Jamaica, and hence the northern motion to maximize time over water.


Yeah, i think the jog to the north is due to interaction with the mountains.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion: Update= 185mph/892mb at 11AM

#2512 Postby Beef Stew » Tue Oct 28, 2025 10:21 am

She's coming ashore now. If this due north wobble continues, Montego Bay could be in the direct path of the eyewall.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion: Update= 185mph/892mb at 11AM

#2513 Postby Beef Stew » Tue Oct 28, 2025 10:22 am

PavelGaborik10 wrote:Any chasers out there live streaming?


Jeff is live here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XpE7rs9Nkg8
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion: Update= 185mph/892mb at 11AM

#2514 Postby MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS » Tue Oct 28, 2025 10:22 am

tulum07 wrote:Where can I find the stream from Treasure Beach? Thank you.

https://www.youtube.com/live/z2HfoQ_HMfY
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion: Update= 185mph/892mb at 11AM

#2515 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 28, 2025 10:23 am

From the AF Hurricane Hunters Facebook page:

A 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron crew (call sign TEAL 75), known as the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters, is returning to it's forward operating location in Curaçao after encountering heavy turbulence today while entering the eye of Hurricane Melissa, a Category 5 storm.
During the event, the aircraft briefly experienced forces stronger than normal due to turbulence. While this does not automatically indicate damage, standard safety procedures require an inspection before returning to operations.
The 53rd WRS is an Air Force Reserve unit assigned to the 403rd Wing, Keesler Air Force Base, Miss.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion: Update= 185mph/892mb at 11AM

#2516 Postby Hurricane2022 » Tue Oct 28, 2025 10:23 am

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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion: Update= 180mph/896mb at 9AM

#2517 Postby FireRat » Tue Oct 28, 2025 10:23 am

storm_in_a_teacup wrote:
FireRat wrote:Holy cow!!! I cannot believe what I'm waking up to, SUB 900 landfall!!? No way, this is the Atlantic's Haiyan - are we seriously tying 1935, or even beating the 892 mb landfall!? :crazyeyes:

Melissa might just be the mother of all landfalling Atlantic hurricanes, prayers for Jamaica!!


I’m kinda disappointed Melissa got stronger than Labor Day as Labor Day is one of my main hurricane characters.

Especially given it’s kind of in poor taste to have a recent hurricane with survivors in living memory as a protagonist.

(Humor=tragedy+time and all that)


It really is crazy, we'll see if 1935 really gets beaten, but so far looks like a tie!... there is that one-off account in Willie Drye's book Storm of the Century, however, that a survivor looked at his barometer maxed out, reading 26.00 hg, and throwing it away in fear.

Perhaps 1935 had it even lower than the official 892 mb. It's practically a legend.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion: Update= 185mph/892mb at 11AM

#2518 Postby timmeister » Tue Oct 28, 2025 10:23 am

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NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion: Update= 185mph/892mb at 11AM

#2519 Postby Sanibel » Tue Oct 28, 2025 10:25 am

The eyewall may have made landfall at the end of a category 5 intensification surge...
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion: Update= 185mph/892mb at 11AM

#2520 Postby Zonacane » Tue Oct 28, 2025 10:25 am

Travorum wrote:Comment from the VDM:

EXPERIENCED SEVERE TURBULENCE INBOUND FROM SE AND EYEWALL HAD SAWTOOTH APPEARANCE ON ALL SIDES BUT NW

Can’t even imagine how strong those mesos are
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