NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[Michele B]

It looks like it's trying to take the path of least resistance over Jamaica, and hence the northern motion to maximize time over water.

I cannot remember the exact phrase about the phenomenon, but John Hope used to talk about what the imminent land interaction with the storm does to its trajectory.

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/BNODesk/status/1983185052675813831

[Beef Stew]

In terms of pressure at landfall (in the Atlantic), we're watching a once-in-a-century event right now.

[kevin]

Wow, it's coming ashore exactly where Josh Morgerman is positioned. We might get historic data from his measurements.

[Michele B]

She's coming ashore now. If this due north wobble continues, Montego Bay could be in the direct path of the eyewall.

In my NON-professional opinion, I don't believe the northerly jog will continue. I think once the eye comes ashore, she'll correct and move more east/northeast again.

[cycloneye]

From the Air Force.

[Hurricane2022]

Josh M may be right in the E Eyewall right now. I'd estimate winds of 165 kts and 890 mbar now as the peak. Perhaps a case for 170 kts could also be made, but I don't feel very comfortable with that estimate. Anyway, this will be a storm to be remembered for centuries.

[mrbagyo]

Wind on the Treasure Beach doesnt look as bad as I expect, it narrowly missed the dreaded Eastern inner eyewall due to the northward jog.
Josh's location in Crawford will get the full brunt

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1983193203160576235

[Michele B]

Wow, it's coming ashore exactly where Josh Morgerman is positioned. We might get historic data from his measurements.

But he doesn't have a live feed up?

[Ed_2001]

Wind on the Treasure Beach doesnt look as bad as I expect, it narrowly missed the dreaded Eastern inner eyewall due to the northward jog.
Josh's location in Crawford will get the full brunt

Yeah from the livecam they're clearly in the moat right now, can't fathom even that astounding footage from 20 minutes ago was only its nascent outer eyewall. I wouldn't say they are fully out of the woods yet though.

[edu2703]

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1983195190656676007

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1983195190656676007

I remember when Ginger Zee (ABC meteorologist) covered Michael’s landfall in Mexico Beach back in 2018 and specifically described how her ears were painful and popping.

That was 919 mbar.

Imagine 892 mbar. Jesus.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Josh M may be right in the E Eyewall right now. I'd estimate winds of 165 kts and 890 mbar now as the peak. Perhaps a case for 170 kts could also be made, but I don't feel very comfortable with that estimate. Anyway, this will be a storm to be remembered for centuries.

You mean western eyewall?

[CrazyC83]

Josh M may be right in the E Eyewall right now. I'd estimate winds of 165 kts and 890 mbar now as the peak. Perhaps a case for 170 kts could also be made, but I don't feel very comfortable with that estimate. Anyway, this will be a storm to be remembered for centuries.

You mean western eyewall?

The north jog just now means he may get the absolute center.

[GCANE]

Looks like it is wobbling to the west as eyewall runs onshore.

[Nuno]

I feel so anxious just following this. May god be with them.

[michelinj]

The treasure beach feed is definitely not a loop, it just moved and panned around

[ATDoel]

Josh M may be right in the E Eyewall right now. I'd estimate winds of 165 kts and 890 mbar now as the peak. Perhaps a case for 170 kts could also be made, but I don't feel very comfortable with that estimate. Anyway, this will be a storm to be remembered for centuries.

You mean western eyewall?

The north jog just now means he may get the absolute center.

Where is he? Hope he gets nailed, not wishing injury to him of course.

[Blown Away]

She is coming onto shore!