NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[Exalt]

Anyone else think this thing could landfall in Cuba as a strong cat 5?

I doubt it, ~5 hours over Jamaica should disrupt the core enough to prevent a Cat 5. However, a 4 is probably likely.

I just worry the jog over the flatter side of Jamaica combined with how resilient this thing is that if it has enough time to recoup in between it won’t have degraded all that much

[mrbagyo]

looks like Josh might miss the center of the eye to the west, he'll get raked by the brutal east side

[Beef Stew]

A category 5 storm requires everything to be nearly perfect to maintain intensity, and 4+ hours over elevation is going to be... significantly less than perfect. I'd be very surprised if she's able to maintain structural integrity and/or recover quickly enough to put a category 5 Cuba landfall into play, but it's not an impossibility. I'd say the odds are low, but I'm by no means a professional. I do suspect her to be at least a category 4- and possibly quite a strong one- still however.

[Nimbus]

Black river getting the worst of this hope the 4 churches had busses and got out.

[ATDoel]

A category 5 storm requires everything to be nearly perfect to maintain intensity, and 4+ hours over elevation is going to be... significantly less than perfect. I'd be very surprised if she's able to maintain structural integrity and/or recover quickly enough to put a category 5 Cuba landfall into play, but it's not an impossibility. I'd say the odds are low, but I'm by no means a professional. I do suspect her to be at least a category 4- and possibly quite a strong one- still however.

Roughly 12 hours before it hits Cuba, it's so strong it'll take some time for it to wind down.

[aspen]

Finally starting to see some degradation of the eyewall on IR imagery.

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/JeremyDeHartWX/status/1983202872503525870

[Tireman4]

https://theeyewall.substack.com/p/melis ... dium=email

[Teban54]

It's quite possible that the landfall will be announced as in White House, Jamaica:

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1983201811977908328

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/PettusWX/status/1983195056287940892

[GCANE]

NE eyewall is running the coast.
Absolutely tragic.

[Blown Away]

Getting close... Bluefields/Belmont is my landfall call... Melissa consistently has tracked W of each NHC advisory track for days...

[tolakram]

saved loop
You can view full size by right clicking and open in new tab, then right clicking and open in new tab again. IMGUR



source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-96-0-100-1&checked=usint-map&colorbar=undefined

[mrbagyo]

[Beef Stew]

Unless she wobbles back to the east, it's going to be hard for Montego Bay to avoid the eyewall at this rate.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

​Josh Morgerman's position in Crawford noted (though I don't know where exact he is in the town):

[tallywx]

Josh seems to be in the “Mexico Beach” spot. Places like New Hope would be the “Tyndall AFB” spot for looking straight up into the stadium eye.

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/rawsalerts/status/1983200652491686179

[tomatkins]

Anyone else think this thing could landfall in Cuba as a strong cat 5?

Mid-range cat 4 at minimum, but at 185mph, I think hitting Cuba as a cat 5 is not out of the question anymore.

Will be interesting to see what the 12Z hurricane models say. The 06zs all had this as a low cat 4 or even cat 3, with no restrengtheing between Jamaica and Cuba - but they are all also east of the actal path (through more mountainous terrain and over land longer).