NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

So you think the gusts being updated and changing every 5 minutes is just for show?
The airport closed this morning and there are internet connection outages all over the island but Weather Underground is usually connected to something.

The airport normally needs to have up to the minute wind speed information for take offs and landings. 5 or 10 mph wrong and you can cause an excursion.

They have a history section for the airport station and the most recent observation is from 5 AM, despite regularly updating "current conditions":
https://i.imgur.com/BSPiIyS.png

NWS also has direct obs from the airport & the most recent one is from 5 AM as well.
https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/MKJS.html

I would agree that Wunderground appears to be displaying model outputs. Though I would be surprised if Montego Bay saw conditions exceeding category 2 due to the rapid deterioration we observed.

Its not model output changing every couple minutes.
Would have to be an elaborate hoax on the part of Weather Underground.
Just changed again and I'm thinking the airport just stopped updating their we page and left their wind speed observations connected to Weather Underground.

https://imgur.com/4YHFT8T

Those huge weather aggregators fake their outputs all the time. Fake radars based on satellite imagery, etc. So much garbage from those sites. If you can’t see the original data, don’t trust it.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/WxNB_/status/1983282541944607176

 https://x.com/darin_deveauWX/status/1983183276253872558

[InfernoFlameCat]

Looks like she is off to the races again. Fortunately she doesnt have much time to really intensify.

[Hurricane2022]

Looks like she is off to the races again. Fortunately she doesnt have much time to really intensify.

[sasha_B]

Melissa's eye does seem to be warming up pretty quickly now, despite the serious deterioration that's been evident from satellite and recon observations.

[Kazmit]

Looks like the time over land worked as a sort of pseudo EWRC that has given it a much larger eye.

[dukeblue219]

Quite the eye popping out tonight.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Ok, Melissa is not done yet by any means. I fear she is rapidly intensifying once more.

[Nuno]

Melissa after landfall looking like a "mature" cyclone. The october big eyed storms. Much larger eyewall.

[CrazyC83]

It also seems to be moving more northeast - that would give it a bit more time over water.

[Nimbus]

Melissa after landfall looking like a "mature" cyclone. The october big eyed storms. Much larger eyewall.

Agreed these have large wind and precipitation fields and so damage is more widespread.
Larger eye hopefully won't go below 940 again NHC still kept her at cat 3 for destructive potential.
Cuba needs to get their final preps done.
At least she is moving faster now so the precip totals will only have hours not days.

[aspen]

What’s going on with the AF plane? They’re circling at ~5200 gpm, still several hundred miles out from Melissa.

[eastcoastFL]

Melissa after landfall looking like a "mature" cyclone. The october big eyed storms. Much larger eyewall.

Agreed these have large wind and precipitation fields and so damage is more widespread.
Larger eye hopefully won't go below 940 again NHC still kept her at cat 3 for destructive potential.
Cuba needs to get their final preps done.
At least she is moving faster now so the precip totals will only have hours not days.

Interesting enough the wind field hasn't changed at all over the past few days. Last advisory the NHC still had hurricane force winds 30 miles from center. It's basically a large tornado.

[eastcoastFL]

What’s going on with the AF plane? They’re circling at ~5200 gpm, still several hundred miles out from Melissa.

I've been wondering the same thing. I couldn't tell if maybe it was some other type of mission to sample the air. But it seems like an odd time and place for that.

[tropicwatch]

GITMO reporting sustained 38mph winds gusts to 61mph at 8:51pm eastern

[Kazmit]

It also seems to be moving more northeast - that would give it a bit more time over water.

Well east after being west of the forecast its entire life. Watching this closely here in Bermuda.

[disassociated_vort]

GITMO reporting sustained 38mph winds gusts to 61mph at 8:51pm eastern

I saw the base was partially evacutated of non-essential personnel. How vulnerable is GITMO to a landfalling storm like this?

[Beef Stew]

What’s going on with the AF plane? They’re circling at ~5200 gpm, still several hundred miles out from Melissa.

I've been wondering the same thing. Can't figure it out- they must be having a technical issue or something.

[Ptarmigan]

The damage in Jamaica is going to be horrendous. Melissa has broken many records.

[Teban54]

Obviously Melissa has countless other more notable records that have been mentioned today, but here's another one: Melissa has the 8th longest duration as a Category 5 (among the 45 known Cat 5s), spending 1 day 11 hours at that intensity.

Many Cat 5s don't last long before weakening, often due to EWRCs. The two other Cat 5s this year only stayed there for 12 hours or less. Even many impressive Cat 5s, like Milton, Dorian and Maria, lasted a few hours less than Melissa.

The 7 storms that lasted longer than Melissa as Cat 5s are: Cuba 1932, Allen, Irma, Ivan, David, Mitch, and Isabel.