NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[CrazyC83]

Interesting, there weren't Cat 4 winds found yet by recon. Probably due to the weaker side being examined and Melissa regaining organization.

I don't agree with the intensity either. The highest supported by Recon is 100 kt, although due to poor sampling, I'd probably have gone with 105 kt. Pressure is 953 mb based on the latest dropsonde.

[Sciencerocks]

105 knt at flight level with smrf supporting 90knts = probably 95 knots but I'd go at least 100 knots considering the strongest quad hasn't been sampled and with the enhanced organization it is probably strengthening. Maybe strengthen back to a cat4 before cuba none the less.

[ljmac75]

Melissa is exhibiting a classic "what" pattern of intensification where the winds are higher but the pressure is also higher than it was earlier...?

[Hurricane Mike]

11pm Video Update on Hurricane Melissa
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SIIXBcHk7y4

[sasha_B]

Whatever your thoughts on actual intensity, Melissa's structure and appearance remain stunning. Her eye is clearing out again on IR, with the first positive temperature values in a while. ADT, as you might imagine, is still giving absurd intensity estimates, with raw values back over 7.0 after briefly dipping below 5.5.

[cheezyWXguy]

This thing is remarkably tenacious, trying to build a -80c ring again. Good thing it won’t have time to really get going before impacting Cuba, it’s done enough today.

[Travorum]

Eye temp is back up in the positive (23C on one frame!) although this might go up and down as the CDO continues to redevelop and symmetrize. The AF recon pass also noted an eyewall 16nm in diameter after the last NOAA pass had remarked there was no detectable eyewall on radar. Overall Melissa's structure continues to recover remarkably well, although actual windspeeds are lagging behind (the story of this storm's life).

[Nimbus]

:double:

https://i.imgur.com/5aW8g2G.gif

I think it's well within reason to say that a Category 4 strike on Cuba is very possible.

Melissa is coming back like Charley did in 2004 after crossing Cuba.
Charley got down to 941 mb with cat 4 winds at landfall and a track change to the right.
Guantanamo Cuba forecast is for 40 mph winds currently they may have to raise that.

[CrazyC83]

It seems to be holding its intensity right now. Also still no aircraft data to support category 4 - the data supports 100 kt at face value.

[galaxy401]

No update yet from Josh Morgerman. Hope he's doing fine over there. Not surprising though since the whole area is in complete blackout. He went silent for days too back during Dorian.

[FireRat]

No update yet from Josh Morgerman. Hope he's doing fine over there. Not surprising though since the whole area is in complete blackout. He went silent for days too back during Dorian.

I hope he's OK, the fact that it was this way with Dorian gives hope he's alright. Really hope the place he rode out the storm in withstood the force of this hurricane!

[tomatkins]

Looks like Melissa has made landfall west of Santiago de Cuba (near Chivirico) at 120 mph/952 mb.

From here it will weaken before it passes through the central Bahamas, then transition to extratropical as it passes west of Bermuda and then maybe into eastern Newfoundland.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/ameliaUrquhart_/status/1983432420088258764

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1983312966973042943

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/JimCantore/status/1983444957919580340

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1983370099508572606

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1983342092048076821

[Nimbus]

Looks like Melissa has made landfall west of Santiago de Cuba (near Chivirico) at 120 mph/952 mb.

From here it will weaken before it passes through the central Bahamas, then transition to extratropical as it passes west of Bermuda and then maybe into eastern Newfoundland.

Weather Underground currently showing 60 knot gusts at Antonio Maceo airport Santiago.

https://www.wunderground.com/weather/cu ... wx_pwsdash

They use ASOS transmission with the older AWOS for airports but some more knowledgeable storm2k members
said this is just fake data. Since there isn't any Metar history available I'll leave this as questionable.

At least this wasn't the catastrophic landfall she made in Jamaica.

People had time to evacuate there some sheltered in place at the fire station which is flat roof concrete.
They will have to relocate like they did after Katrina, so sad

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/nwadeema/status/1983342714986082750

[Nimbus]

 https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1983342092048076821

Lots of church busses in the area they could have evacuated people up B6.

They need something for their spirit.

"But whatever were gains to me I now consider loss for the sake of Christ. What is more, I consider everything a loss because of the surpassing worth of knowing Christ Jesus my Lord, for whose sake I have lost all things".