NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/CIMSS_Satellite/status/1983302755763814409

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/AZStormChase/status/1983377664795660681

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/Ham_BklynWx/status/1983416081105506491

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1983489301666259158

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/burgwx/status/1983327057045299703

[syfr]

No update yet from Josh Morgerman. Hope he's doing fine over there. Not surprising though since the whole area is in complete blackout. He went silent for days too back during Dorian.

Kind of surprising given that all one should need is a car battery and the Starlink

[Stellar]

Both the AF and NOAA hurricane hunters took a beating on their last passes through Melissa yesterday...does anyone have further information on the crews and planes today?

[jconsor]

Severe damage in Montego Bay: https://x.com/rj_smith_3/status/1983506193994666304

[ATDoel]

No update yet from Josh Morgerman. Hope he's doing fine over there. Not surprising though since the whole area is in complete blackout. He went silent for days too back during Dorian.

Kind of surprising given that all one should need is a car battery and the Starlink

yeah it is, I don't think he had starlink back in 2019. As bad as it was in Black River, where Josh was was even worse. He was about 4 miles west and got the absolute worst part of the hurricane, he couldn't have picked a more extreme location if he tried. I'm worried about him and that entire community, I've heard nothing coming out of Crawford yet.

[TheWisestofAll]

About that most recent sonde. (OB06 from NOAA mission 23)

Sondes have momentary winds, not 1 minute sustained.

I was looking up information about interpreting the two things mentioned below yesterday:
https://i.imgur.com/V6kfck3.jpeg

From:
https://www.noaa.gov/sites/default/file ... nan-sm.pdf



Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 210° (from the SSW)
- Wind Speed: 192 knots (221 mph)

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 157 gpm - 7 gpm (515 geo. feet - 23 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 195° (from the SSW)
- Wind Speed: 188 knots (216 mph)



192 * 0.8 = 153.6 knots = 177 mph based on mean boundary level
188 * 0.83 = 156.04 knots = 179 mph based on lowest 150 meters

So that sonde is in line with the 180mph wind.

I know someone who has been researching wind reduction values based on the last 40 years of sonde data, and so far their conclusions is that the reduction value varies depending on the current strengthening/weakening state of the storm. For strengthening storms or ones that efficiently mix winds like Melissa, the reduction could be as high as .95-.99. It's still a work in progress, but that's what they've found so far.

[Teban54]

Loop from Jamaica landfall to its current state in Cuba:

[ATDoel]

Loop from Jamaica landfall to its current state in Cuba:

https://i.imgur.com/rpBKEw4.gif

It's really going to be interesting to see how quickly it can reorganize again after Cuba. Those are real mountain ranges on the eastern side of Cuba that it just went over.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

No update yet from Josh Morgerman. Hope he's doing fine over there. Not surprising though since the whole area is in complete blackout. He went silent for days too back during Dorian.

Kind of surprising given that all one should need is a car battery and the Starlink

He usually stays off the grid for a couple of days after landfall. There is always a big clamor about it, then he reemerges.

[GCANE]

One thing that stands out is Melissa was always under a shear gradient.
The position of the shear vector is likely to have a significant role in inducing RI.

Induced helicity maybe a result of that shear gradient as well and could have had a significant effect on the fact there was no EWRC.
The paper cited in the tweet by Eric goes into depth of why that may be.

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1983323178899517489

[eastcoastFL]

Are there not hourly updates because it's over Cuba and we can't fly or obtain ground obs right now?

[eastcoastFL]

One thing that stands out is Melissa was always under a shear gradient.
The position of the shear vector is likely to have a significant role in inducing RI.

Induced helicity maybe a result of that shear gradient as well and could have had a significant effect on the fact there was no EWRC.
The paper cited in the tweet by Eric goes into depth of why that may be.

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1983323178899517489

That was interesting to me as well. Instead of classic EWRC's we saw a few suspected eyewall melds that we haven't really seen in previous storms.

[eastcoastFL]

She's looking pretty rough right now as she emerges over the Atlantic. Cuba might have taken a good chunk out of her.

[cycloneye]

She's looking pretty rough right now as she emerges over the Atlantic. Cuba might have taken a good chunk out of her.

You are in the drivers seat in the S2K 2025 poll (#47 on the list) as you are very close to the actual numbers. Let's see, if no more storms form in November then we will officially congratulate you for the close call in the poll thread when the season ends

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 1&t=124646

[Tireman4]

She's looking pretty rough right now as she emerges over the Atlantic. Cuba might have taken a good chunk out of her.

You are in the drivers seat in the S2K 2025 poll (#47 on the list) as you are very close to the actual numbers. Let's see, if no more storms form in November then we will officially congratulate you for the close call in the poll thread when the season ends

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 1&t=124646

I came in last Louis, do I get anything? LOL

[cycloneye]

For the members who live in Bermuda: The Meteorological Service of Bermuda has issued a Hurricane
Warning for Bermuda.