Will another Atlantic storm form in 2025 after Melissa?

[Teban54]

Options:

No more storms (ends with Melissa)
One more storm (Nestor)
Two more storms (Nestor and Olga)
Three or more storms (ends with Pablo or later)

Mods, can you make this a poll?

[cycloneye]

Made the poll that will be open for voting until next sunday at 10:10 AM EST. (Remember the clocks go back one hour on Sunday with Eastern Standard Time.)

[Teban54]

Possibly relevant fact: Every season in record history with a Cat 5 had at least one storm forming later than it. All years that had October or November Cat 5s even followed with another hurricane.

Specifically, here are all 8 other seasons with October and November Cat 5s, and how the rest of the seasons went:

• 1924:
  
  • A Cat 5 made landfall in Cuba at peak intensity on October 19 (and South Florida later as a Cat 1).
  • The season ended with a Cat 1 and a TD in November; the Cat 1 formed in the Caribbean, and became a hurricane in and NE of the Bahamas. (Additional undetected systems are possible.)
• 1932:
  
  • A Cat 5 maintained such intensity for three days between November 5-8, the latest Cat 5 in a calendar year on record, before striking Cuba later.
  • While it was the last storm to dissipate in 1932, it wasn't the last storm to form: another storm formed and dissipated during the lifespan of the Cuba Cat 5, and peaked at Cat 2 in the eastern subtropics. (Additional undetected systems are possible.)
• 1961:
  
  • Hattie became a Cat 5 and hit Belize on October 31.
  • The season ended with a Cat 1 and two tropical storms in November; the Cat 1, Jenny, formed and peaked in the subtropics.
• 1998:
  
  • Mitch was a Cat 5 during October 26-28, weakened, hit Honduras, dissipated, regenerated as a TS, hit Florida, and again dissipated.
  • Even after all this, 1998 produced yet another hurricane: Cat 1 Nicole in late November, in the eastern subtropics.
• 2005:
  
  • Wilma reached its record intensity on October 19, and became extratropical on October 26 after landfalls in Mexico and Florida.
  • Six TSes, two Hs and one MH formed later than Wilma, including TS Zeta that lasted into 2006. The two hurricanes were Cat 3 Beta in Western Caribbean and Cat 1 Epsilon in the eastern subtropics.
• 2016:
  
  • Matthew peaked as Cat 5 on October 1, and impacted the Caribbean and SE CONUS until it dissipated on October 10.
  • Two major hurricanes had later formations: Cat 4 Nicole in early-mid October in the subtropics (impacting Bermuda), and Cat 3 Otto in late November (the latest Cat 3 on record).
• 2018:
  
  • Michael hit the FL Panhandle as a Cat 5 on October 10.
  • Two storms formed later than Michael did: TS Nadine on October 9 (eastern MDR), and Cat 2 Oscar in late October in the subtropics. (Leslie also dissipated later than Michael.)
• 2024:
  
  • Milton's two periods as Cat 5 spanned from October 7-9, and its Florida impact came days later.
  • The season had 5 TSes, 2 Hs and 1 MH afterwards, including one of the two strongest November Gulf hurricanes, Rafael. Even the Caribbean Sea proper saw 3 systems.

Note that 2020 was previously thought of as ended with a Cat 5 (Iota), but it's no longer valid with Iota's downgrade to Cat 4 peak.

Looking at these precedents alone... ALL 8 seasons had hurricanes form later than the Cat 5, not just tropical storms. In particular, a November hurricane in the subtropics is unusually common, occurring in 7 of these 8 years. (The only exception, 2024, had hurricanes in and around the Caribbean; as did 2005 and 2016.)

Of course, having no precedent doesn't mean it can't happen. Also note that some of these October Cat 5s occurred much earlier than Melissa.

[AnnularCane]

I went with two more. Just because.

[Beef Stew]

I think we'll see one, possibly two, more storms this season. We may even get our first storm that peaks as a category 1 .

[CrazyC83]

2 more - both hurricanes and one major. Major Hurricane Nestor in mid-November (the 4th category 5!) and Hurricane Olga in early December.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

My guess is we're done with the big hitters. Anything after this will be weak from a non-tropical origin.

[Category5Kaiju]

Based on how this season has behaved, if we get another storm, it'll likely either be a very weak nothingburger or a Category 4+ major hurricane.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Call me a hater because this is SEASON CANCELED

[al78]

Call me a hater because this is SEASON CANCELED

Season over rather than season cancelled, surely?

[chaser1]

Call me a hater because this is SEASON CANCELED

Season over rather than season cancelled, surely?

I think the reference suggests, the balance of the season has been cancelled