NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[aspen]

Even in its lackluster state, this system’s ability to generate deep convection is pretty impressive.

Yep, as soon as the sun goes down, she’s putting out CDG cloud tops. I don’t recall another system responding to DMAX with this consistency and magnitude before.

[PavelGaborik10]

I'm not sure I've ever seen such horrific wind damage from a hurricane in my life time.

It looks like a damn Ef 4 tornado ripped through St. Elizabeth

[Kazmit]

It’s probably around 90 knots now. Cat 3 is on the table. Those peak winds are farrr east of the center.

[LarryWx]

I'm not sure I've ever seen such horrific wind damage from a hurricane in my life time.

It looks like a damn Ef 4 tornado ripped through St. Elizabeth

Was Andrew’s wind damage similar?

[LarryWx]

Regarding Josh, this is a Floyd Green tweet from 9:03PM:

“Ran into @iCyclone today in Black River.
Commended him for his approach.”

https://x.com/floydgreenja/status/1983701263792718082?

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1983710806958322149

[Ptarmigan]

The scenes of devastation coming in from Black River and St Elizabeth are incredible...Definitely category 5...

Looks like they got bombed.

[sasha_B]

It's not entirely a given that the NHC will upgrade to Category 2 at 03z given the limited support from recon & the fact that ADT estimates remain next to useless with how far they've been running ahead of Melissa's observed intensity. On the other hand, they did forecast some reintensification between 29 October 21z and 30 October 18z, and that appears to be taking place - even a "possibly generous" 90 kt estimate on the next advisory wouldn't be far beyond expectations.

[PavelGaborik10]

I'm not sure I've ever seen such horrific wind damage from a hurricane in my life time.

It looks like a damn Ef 4 tornado ripped through St. Elizabeth

Was Andrew’s wind damage similar?

My guess is Jamaica has much better quality structures than pre-Andrew Florida.

Still, I don't think I've seen structures flattened by winds quite to this extent, especially given context.

I have zero doubt that there were stronger gusts on land from Melissa vs Andrew.

[emeraldislenc]

Don't think you can say Jamaica had better building standards than Florida had before Andrew. So much of the area where Melissa made land fall was a very poor area not including the large resorts. Just my opinion.

[edu2703]

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1983730201860206979

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1983730201860206979

Yeah, based on his descriptions of his ears hurting and that woman closing her ears, that was highly likely indicative of the sub-900 mbar pressure.

[PavelGaborik10]

Don't think you can say Jamaica had better building standards than Florida had before Andrew. So much of the area where Melissa made land fall was a very poor area not including the large resorts. Just my opinion.

I think you're really underestimating just how different things were 30+ years ago.

Most of the houses worst impacted were wood-frame or unreinforced concrete block with light roof tie-downs, even none at all.

Roofs were often attached with nails instead of hurricane straps.

[edu2703]

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1983746411142509004

[ljmac75]

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1983746411142509004

Josh always delivers the goods. Or maybe the bads. That's kind of insane for not being the peak of the storm.

[CrazyC83]

Seeing CDG cloud tops at 25N is quite remarkable too. That doesn't happen very often. That also makes me question the thought that the 90% rule doesn't apply - often that is with a sprawling RMW and lesser convection (think Erin when it was off the east coast). I'd probably go with 95 kt for the current intensity.

[CrazyC83]

This is UNOFFICIAL, but here is how - up to now - I would update the BT for Melissa, adding the post-Jamaica track. A full explanation will come after becoming ET. That said, two landfalls in the Bahamas have been added on Long Island and San Salvador Island.

AL132025, MELISSA, xx,
20251020, 1200, , LO, 13.5N, 66.5W, 30, 1008,
20251020, 1800, , LO, 13.7N, 67.7W, 35, 1006,
20251021, 0000, , LO, 13.9N, 68.9W, 35, 1005,
20251021, 0600, , LO, 14.1N, 70.1W, 40, 1004,
20251021, 1200, , LO, 14.1N, 71.3W, 40, 1003,
20251021, 1800, , LO, 14.1N, 72.5W, 40, 1002,
20251022, 0000, , TS, 14.1N, 73.2W, 45, 1002,
20251022, 0600, , TS, 14.2N, 73.4W, 45, 1001,
20251022, 1200, , TS, 14.3N, 73.6W, 45, 1000,
20251022, 1800, , TS, 14.4N, 73.9W, 40, 1002,
20251023, 0000, , TS, 14.6N, 74.3W, 40, 1004,
20251023, 0600, , TS, 14.8N, 74.6W, 35, 1005,
20251023, 1200, , TS, 15.2N, 75.0W, 35, 1005,
20251023, 1800, , TS, 15.5N, 75.3W, 40, 1002,
20251024, 0000, , TS, 15.7N, 75.6W, 40, 1001,
20251024, 0600, , TS, 16.0N, 75.3W, 40, 1001,
20251024, 1200, , TS, 15.8N, 74.9W, 45, 1000,
20251024, 1800, , TS, 15.8N, 74.5W, 50, 996,
20251025, 0000, , TS, 16.1N, 74.7W, 55, 993,
20251025, 0600, , TS, 16.3N, 74.9W, 60, 986,
20251025, 1200, , HU, 16.4N, 75.1W, 65, 983,
20251025, 1800, , HU, 16.5N, 75.3W, 70, 977,
20251026, 0000, , HU, 16.4N, 75.7W, 85, 970,
20251026, 0600, , HU, 16.3N, 76.0W, 100, 957,
20251026, 1200, , HU, 16.4N, 76.4W, 110, 952,
20251026, 1800, , HU, 16.4N, 76.9W, 120, 944,
20251027, 0000, , HU, 16.4N, 77.3W, 130, 932,
20251027, 0600, , HU, 16.3N, 77.7W, 135, 922,
20251027, 1200, , HU, 16.4N, 78.0W, 145, 913,
20251027, 1800, , HU, 16.4N, 78.3W, 155, 906,
20251028, 0000, , HU, 16.5N, 78.6W, 155, 905,
20251028, 0600, , HU, 16.9N, 78.4W, 155, 900,
20251028, 1200, , HU, 17.5N, 78.1W, 165, 894,
20251028, 1400, I, HU, 17.7N, 78.0W, 170, 892,
20251028, 1700, L, HU, 18.1N, 78.0W, 160, 897,
20251028, 1800, , HU, 18.2N, 77.9W, 140, 910,
20251028, 2200, R, HU, 18.7N, 77.4W, 95, 955,
20251029, 0000, , HU, 18.9N, 77.2W, 100, 954,
20251029, 0600, , HU, 19.8N, 76.3W, 105, 951,
20251029, 0715, L, HU, 20.0N, 76.1W, 105, 950,
20251029, 1200, , HU, 20.9N, 75.8W, 75, 972,
20251029, 1800, , HU, 22.1N, 75.3W, 80, 974,
20251029, 2130, L, HU, 22.5N, 75.0W, 85, 971,
20251030, 0000, , HU, 23.5N, 74.8W, 90, 969,
20251030, 0200, L, HU, 24.0N, 74.5W, 90, 967,

[Sciencerocks]

[CrazyC83]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/4175/P7rLlR.gif

Melissa refuses to die or even give in...CDG cloud tops in a more marginal environment is remarkable.

[cheezyWXguy]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/4175/P7rLlR.gif

Melissa refuses to die or even give in...CDG cloud tops in a more marginal environment is remarkable.

Agreed, it continues to persist. I just noticed that revolving towers are starting to appear again in the nw and se quadrants of the core, or what remains of it at least.