NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[tolakram]

Definitely a MH again- don't know why the NHC didn't upgrade it at 8am.

Email them and ask.

[GCANE]

CDO has done a complete 360-dgree wrap around with ragged eye formed.
If this isn't a major, I don't know what is.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

I expect they'll go 100 kts/960mbar at the update shortly

[cycloneye]

I expect they'll go 100 kts/960mbar at the update shortly

Not up there.

1500 UTC THU OCT 30 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 71.7W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 65SE 30SW 20NW.

[InfernoFlameCat]

They kept it at 90 knots…

[sasha_B]

They kept it at 90 knots…

There'll be an explanation in the discussion, but it's possible that they're excluding the ADT estimates due to how consistently high they've been running, and without more recent recon obs. or a subjective fix at T5.5 or higher (it was T4.0 at 12z), they don't consider the data sufficient to justify any upgrades.

[Kazmit]

How do 113 kt flight-level winds translate to 90 kts at the surface? Not to mention the improved satellite appearance since the plane left.

[Teban54]

Ironically, Melissa's appearance started degrading immediately after the advisory.

[aspen]

How do 113 kt flight-level winds translate to 90 kts at the surface? Not to mention the improved satellite appearance since the plane left.

Recurving, somewhat disheveled systems influenced by a trough like this tend to have worse FL-to-surface conversion rates. I remember something similar with either Humberto ‘19 or Isaias ‘20.

[Kazmit]

How do 113 kt flight-level winds translate to 90 kts at the surface? Not to mention the improved satellite appearance since the plane left.

Recurving, somewhat disheveled systems influenced by a trough like this tend to have worse FL-to-surface conversion rates. I remember something similar with either Humberto ‘19 or Isaias ‘20.

Humberto ‘19 actually developed a sting jet that made it more powerful than it otherwise would have been.

[Nimbus]

How do 113 kt flight-level winds translate to 90 kts at the surface? Not to mention the improved satellite appearance since the plane left.

Recurving, somewhat disheveled systems influenced by a trough like this tend to have worse FL-to-surface conversion rates. I remember something similar with either Humberto ‘19 or Isaias ‘20.

Starting to get a little drier air undercutting the circulation but hasn't brought the flight level winds down as much as I thought it would. I was thinking Bermuda might see 75 knot winds at the most by landfall.

[LarryWx]

For anyone interested, here’s an updated stormchaser Jeff P. (with his host) livestream link from Ground Zero. This is from decimated Black River on the coast. Jeff was just saying they need helicopters there ASAP because there are a whole lot of folks who are injured and need to be airlifted to a hospital.
Edit: He just quoted a Reuters reports saying this is a “humanitarian crisis”:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=eXN7D6JdSPI

[Nimbus]

For anyone interested, here’s an updated stormchaser Jeff P. (with his host) livestream link from Ground Zero. This is from decimated Black River on the coast. Jeff was just saying they need helicopters there ASAP because there are a whole lot of folks who are injured and need to be airlifted to a hospital:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=eXN7D6JdSPI

"All but three hospitals across Jamaica remain open and are operating in emergency mode, while all health centres remain closed, the Ministry of Health and Wellness said Wednesday. "While hospitals remain open, they continue to operate in emergency mode to provide critical and life-saving care only."

That is normally only a couple hours up B6 from Black River but its all forested and probably impassable from tree falls now. Doctors riding in on dirt bikes with some medical gear to set up a mobile site was mentioned.

[Sciencerocks]

[MarioProtVI]

Seems like despite the 114 kt FL they’re remaining at 90 kt. Good call because the mixing seems to be pretty bad which means the standard .9 reduction factor doesn’t apply here, and probably more like .85 or something a bit lower.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Seems like despite the 114 kt FL they’re remaining at 90 kt. Good call because the mixing seems to be pretty bad which means the standard .9 reduction factor doesn’t apply here, and probably more like .85 or something a bit lower.

114*0.85 = 97 knots. Cat 3.

Just saying.

They reduced from FL by 0.78. Seems aggressive.

[sasha_B]

Melissa really does appear to be deteriorating now. I'm inclined to agree with others here that there was a Category 3 "post-Cuba peak", but I suspect it was early this morning....further reinintensification seems unlikely in light of the diminishing favourability (along multiple metrics) of environmental conditions.

[Kazmit]

Seems like despite the 114 kt FL they’re remaining at 90 kt. Good call because the mixing seems to be pretty bad which means the standard .9 reduction factor doesn’t apply here, and probably more like .85 or something a bit lower.

114*0.85 = 97 knots. Cat 3.

Just saying.

They reduced from FL by 0.78. Seems aggressive.

Agreed. Both HAFS models, which performed excellently with Melissa's intensity, bring Melissa to 105-110 kts this afternoon.

[aspen]

How do 113 kt flight-level winds translate to 90 kts at the surface? Not to mention the improved satellite appearance since the plane left.

Recurving, somewhat disheveled systems influenced by a trough like this tend to have worse FL-to-surface conversion rates. I remember something similar with either Humberto ‘19 or Isaias ‘20.

Humberto ‘19 actually developed a sting jet that made it more powerful than it otherwise would have been.

Okay then it was Isaias I was thinking of. I believe that had a few 100+ kt FL measurements that didn’t translate to the surface efficiently.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/DRmetwatch/status/1983991745529704467