WPAC: FUNG-WONG - Severe Tropical Storm - Discussion

[Hayabusa]

90W INVEST 251102 1800 8.9N 147.8E WPAC 15 0

99w redux

https://science.nrlmry.navy.mil/geoips/ ... ckfile.txt

[cycloneye]

Reposting from the WPAC thread.

If the models are right, the next invest 90W then later with the name Fung-wong will be a strong Typhoon slamming the Phillippines.

[Hayabusa]

18z GFS still landfall, while Euro AI recurves, there seem to be two frontal systems that are forecast, the first one both models agree it won't be able to pull the future TC for recurvature, the second one is where the models disagree, GFS still show not being pulled hence the landfall but Euro AI gets the TC pulled for recurvature.

[Hayabusa]

While Euro 18z keeps it on a northward track throughout with minimal development

[cycloneye]

From the Guam NWS.

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1002 AM ChST Mon Nov 3 2025


...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK...

This Hydrologic Outlook is for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan.

A tropical disturbance developing in central Micronesia, is expected
to move toward the Marianas by Wednesday, bringing potentially heavy
downpours to the area in the second half of the week. After the
system exits the west, feeder bands along the leeside of the system
may bring an extended period of rainfall for the rest of the week.

Moderate uncertainty remains regarding potential rainfall impacts,
but early estimates indicate this system to bring locally heavy
rainfall of 5 to 8 inches across the Marianas by the weekend. This
feature will be monitored closely over the next several days by
various agencies, so expected rainfall totals may change. Even so,
flash flooding remains a possibility Wednesday through Saturday.

Uncertainty regarding mudslide risk during the weekend remains high.
If feeder bands form, showers are likely to persist into the
weekend, which would become more likely to saturate the soils enough
to increase mudslide risk.

Residents on these islands need to closely monitor this developing
situation as flood watches, advisories and flash flood warnings
could be issued later.

If living near streams and rivers, prepare to move items away from
stream and river banks. Make sure storm drains nearby are not
clogged, especially If living at low-lying areas.

$$

Montvila

[Hayabusa]

18z FNV3

[cycloneye]

AI Deep Mind.

[Hayabusa]

Now low

ABPW10 PGTW 030600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/030600Z-040600ZNOV2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030151ZNOV2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 03NOV25 0000Z, TYPHOON 31W (KALMAEGI) WAS LOCATED NEAR
10.5N 128.9E, APPROXIMATELY 368 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SONSOROL, AND HAD
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS GUSTING TO 85 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 030300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.5N
147.0E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK. MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 030400Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH LOCALIZED BURSTS OF
CONVECTION WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE
EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 5-10 KTS,
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE
ON THE STEADY CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
WELL AS A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. GFS AND NAVGEM ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPMENT THAN ECMWF AND THE ENSEMBLES. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

00z FNV3

[Hayabusa]

JMA 06Z also started satellite analysis (eda) on this

[Hayabusa]

JMA 06Z also started satellite analysis (eda) on this

06z LPA

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 05N 145E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[Hayabusa]

06Z GFS intense typhoon possibly STY landfall over Northern Luzon.

[cycloneye]

Hayabusa, 00z Euro more stronger and recurves like AIFS.

[Hayabusa]

Hayabusa, 00z Euro more stronger and recurves like AIFS.

https://i.imgur.com/pv9SFlu.gif

Unless they are a big change to a landfall, it's rather boring to mention them

[Hayabusa]

06Z Euro AI more closer to Luzon and tracks over Extreme Northern Luzon

[Hayabusa]

06Z FNV3

[cycloneye]

I guess JTWC will upgrade to medium chance very soon.

90W INVEST 251103 1200 9.0N 145.5E WPAC 20 1005

[Hayabusa]

GFS wants this to be a TS as soon as tomorrow if not earlier this upcoming 18Z

[cycloneye]

Up to medium.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8.5N 147.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 145.5E, APPROXIMATELY 268 NM
SOUTH OF GUAM. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH SCATTERED BURSTS OF
CONVECTION WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. 031127Z AND 031042Z
ASCAT PASSES SHOW A BROAD AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF
25 KT WINDS WITHIN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. WINDS TO BOTH THE NORTH AND
WEST ARE MUCH WEAKER THOUGH (10-15 KTS) AND DO NOT CREATE A DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) YET. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE
EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10-15
KTS, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE ON THE STEADY CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS WELL AS A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. GFS, NAVGEM, AND
GEFS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM COMPARED TO
ECMWF AND ECENS, WHICH DEPICT A SLOWER CONSOLIDATION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[Hayabusa]

Now TD

WWJP27 RJTD 031200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 031200.
WARNING VALID 041200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA
AT 08.0N 148.3E CAROLINES MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.