WPAC: FUNG-WONG - Severe Tropical Storm - Discussion

[mrbagyo]

This is probably the most hyped WPAC systems since __________.

[Teban54]

The fact that we have these insane model runs less than 2 weeks after Melissa looked like it's locked in as the storm of the year...

[cycloneye]

This is probably the most hyped WPAC systems since __________.

Since Haiyan.

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 8.9N 141.7E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 216 NM EAST OF YAP
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING NEARLY FULLY OBSCURING THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
DEPRESSION (TD) 32W. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 041202Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWING THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLCC. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE IS DECREASED
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LACK OF RECENT DATA
COVERING THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED PARTIAL ASCAT PASS, PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND AGENCY
DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT, INCLUDING WARM (30-31
C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF
5-10 KTS, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, COUNTERACTED ONLY BY
MODERATELY DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.


3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 32W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CONSOLIDATING
AND INTENSIFYING OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE
NORTHERN PHILIPPINES. THE SYSTEM IS INITIALLY FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT DOMINATED BY A NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW NORTH OF THE LLCC AND A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF A STR CENTERED TO
THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE, OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TD 32W IS FORECAST
TO TRACK VERY SLOWLY, OR EVEN REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY, WHILE FURTHER
CONSOLIDATING INTO A MORE COMPACT TROPICAL STORM. SIMULTANEOUSLY, THE
EXTENSION OF THE STR IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE EASTWARD, ALLOWING THE
WELL-STRUCTURED SYSTEM TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AROUND TAU 24-36.
AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, TD 32W IS EXPECTED TO REACH
TYPHOON-LEVEL WIND MAXIMA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND CONTINUE
STRENGTHENING AS IT REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, PROVIDED
THE VORTEX BECOMES FULLY SHIELDED FROM ENTRAINING DRY AIR.

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK FORECAST IS ESPECIALLY CHALLENGING AT THE
MOMENT WITH THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND REMAINING IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONALLY, NUMERICAL MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE
INITIAL POSITION, WITH DETERMINISTIC GFS PERSISTENTLY INDICATING A
MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD LOCATION, AS WITNESSED BY A STRONG 850 MB
VORTICITY SIGNATURE, EXTENDING ALL THE WAY TO THE 500 MB LEVEL. AS A
RESULT, THE CURRENT CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 24 IS OVER 250 NM,
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE GFS TRACK POSITIONED 150 NM TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THEREFORE, JTWC
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS LAID WITH JUST LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
SHORT TERM. MEDIUM- TO LONG-TERM TRACK GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVED
SLIGHTLY AS MAJORITY OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS EXHIBIT GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, FOLLOWING THE TURN AROUND TAU 48.
ECMWF STILL INITIATES THE SYSTEM MORE ACCURATELY, SUPPORTED BY
SCATTEROMETRY AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. THEREFORE, THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, LEANING TOWARD
SOLUTIONS FROM ECMWF AND ECENS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIR
AGREEMENT, WITH ALL AVAILABLE DATA INDICATING STEADY INTENSIFICATION,
WITH SEVERAL RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) SIGNALS PRESENT (RIDE, RICN,
FRIA). THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AND IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD, AS THE ASSESSMENT SPREAD INCREASES AFTER TAU 48.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: LOW
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

[WaveBreaking]

HAFS-A has lost its damn mind with this storm.



Edit: it also had it at 958 mbar while only having 79kt winds, so this is very likely an overcooked run.

[mrbagyo]

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This is the most hyped storm since Dolphin. Who remembers the sub-900 runs?

[cycloneye]

PAGASA calls SuperTyphoon in 5 days.

[Hayabusa]

This is the most hyped storm since Dolphin. Who remembers the sub-900 runs?

It's Hagupit that I remember that JTWC had a forecast of 170 knots that didn't happen

[Hayabusa]

For me the hype is the biggest since either Hagupit (2014) or Hagibis (2019), where the latter, the UKMET was really aggressive in its intensity forecast reaching sub 900mb. Haiyan had lacking weather models back then to show monster intensity forecasts but it was expected to become a strong typhoon.

[GCANE]

Massive hot tower exploding with a warm-core signature at 7.4N 141.2E

[cycloneye]

The more south the reformation of the low is, the more strong it will be. Right now, is more south of that 15 UTC 8.9N position.

[Hayabusa]

12z HFSA, pressure not matching the winds...

[GCANE]

Getting some upshear-left convection away from the main hot tower.
If this rotates to upshear-right, very likely it will quickly intensify.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/WeathermanAAA_/status/1985775142325080276

[GCANE]

Radius-of-Maximum-Winds broadening rapidly with some Tropical-Storm wind barbs now showing up.

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 0_swhr.gif

[mrbagyo]

This thing's spiral banding is expansive and it might be building a core already this early.



I hope we have functional drifting buoys along the path of this brewing monster just like Ragasa

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/xiaoqianWX/status/1985684800825368625

[cycloneye]

21:00 UTC JTWC Forecast track a little south that the 15z one on approach to north-central Luzón and at 115 kt.

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 8.2N 141.7E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 77 NM EAST OF SOROL
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 07 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD
AND DISORGANIZED CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING THE
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE STRUCTURE REMAINS ELONGATED WITH
CONVECTION PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REVEALS DRY AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION AND A DEEP,
DRY TROUGH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
BASED ON BROAD AND WEAK CIRCULATION, LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFICULTY IN IDENTIFYING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS
KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 37 KTS AT 041617Z
CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 041730Z
CIMSS AIDT: 35 KTS AT 041730Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 22 KTS AT 041617Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 24 KTS AT 041800Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: LOW
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY IN
THE EARLY-TERM FORECAST, LEADING TO A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY THAN
REFLECTED IN PREVIOUS WARNINGS.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 32W WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY AND STRUGGLE TO CONSOLIDATE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
BY TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL COME UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH, INITIALLY DRIVING TY 31W
NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. BETWEEN TAU
48-72, THE STEERING INFLUENCE WILL BECOME COMPLEX INCLUDING A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN, SHIFTING THE
TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ONCE THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, IT IS
ANTICIPATED TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO UNSEASONABLY HIGH SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, A POINT SOURCE ALOFT,
AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS). THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION
RATE WILL TAPER OFF AFTER TAU 72, RESULTING IN A PEAK INTENSITY OF
120KTS BY TAU 96. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS TD 32W
APPROACHES THE EASTERN COAST OF LUZON DUE TO UPWELLING AND AN
UPTICK OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ABOVE 20KTS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A LARGE SPREAD
OF TRACK SOLUTIONS CONTRIBUTING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A
346NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD SPANNING FROM THE APPROACH TO THE LUZON
STRAIT TO CENTRAL LUZON. THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
GUIDANCE HAS A CLASSIC 'SQUASHED SPIDER' APPEARANCE AS THE VORTEX
TRACKERS STRUGGLE, MUCH LIKE MYSELF, TO FIND THE CENTER OF THE
CIRCULATION AMIDST THE MESS OF MID-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL CONFLICTING
FLOW. HOWEVER, THE MODEL FIELDS REVEAL SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT
POSITIONS OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BASED ON THE MEAN SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE CENTERS. FOR EXAMPLE, GFS POSITIONS THE PRESSURE CENTER
230NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CURRENT 18Z BEST TRACK POSITION,
WHERE THE FLOW IS DEFINITIVELY EASTERLY AND NOT WITHIN THE
CIRCULATION. ALTERNATELY, ECMWF IS CLOSER TO THE BEST TRACK
POSITION, BUT BROADER AND WEAKER. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE STRONGLY
INDICATES RAPID INTENSIFICATION BASED ON THE JTWC SHIPS GUIDANCE
AND THE OCEAN-COUPLED MODELS (HAFS-A, HWRF, COAMPS-TC). THE SPREAD
OF INTENSITY GUIDANCE COMES AFTER TAU 60, WHEN COAMPS-TC, HAFS-A,
AND HWRF ALL REACH A PEAK OF 125-135KTS AT TAU 96, WHILE GFS DRAGS
BEHIND PEAKING AT 100KTS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM IN THE NEAR-TERM, AND LOW DUE TO THE SPREAD BETWEEN
DETERMINISTIC AND MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: LOW
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN