WPAC: FUNG-WONG - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/FerragamoWx/status/1986614501412585874

[cycloneye]

Cat 4 landfall.

[Hayabusa]

18z FNV3 has ensemble peaking 870 mb

[dexterlabio]

Gargantuan eye for a gargantuan circulation

[Hayabusa]

Looks like PAGASA will issue the first bulletin soon

[cycloneye]

FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: 32W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE SYSTEM WESTWARD AND
EVENTUALLY ANCHOR NEAR 20N 140E. 32W WILL TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THROUGH TAU 72. LANDFALL WITHIN
LUZON IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND TAU 60, JUST SOUTH OF CASIGURAN.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN EMERGE WITHIN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND BEGIN TO
ROUND THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A NORTH
NORTHWARD TRACK IS FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH RATHER SLOW TRACKS SPEEDS DUE TO COMPETING STEERING
WITH A SEPARATE RIDGE THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER HAINAN. A FINAL
LANDFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN SOUTHERN TAIWAN JUST AFTER TAU
120. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, 32W IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
THROUGH TAU 36 TO AROUND 115 KTS. THE INTENSIFICATION TREND WILL
THEN HALT AS EASTERLY SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25-30 KTS.
AN INTENSITY OF 115 KTS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE TIME OF
LANDFALL IN LUZON. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE VORTEX. ONCE THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE HINDERED BY INCREASING SOUTHERLY
SHEAR AND DRY AIR. AS A RESULT, 32W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS TOWARD SOUTHERN
TAIWAN.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM
WHICH TRACKS THE VORTEX MUCH FURTHER. DISCOUNTING NAVGEM, THERE IS
A 115 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THROUGH THAT TIME. AFTER TAU 72, MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH VARYING SHARPNESS OF THE NORTHWARD TURN. GFS
HAS THE WIDEST TURN WHILE GALWEM HAS THE SHARPEST. CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY TO 405 NM AT TAU 120. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST FOLLOWS MORE CLOSELY TO THE ECMWF AND AI SOLUTIONS THROUGH
TAU 120 WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE OVERALL AGREES
ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) THROUGH TAU 36, WITH NEARLY ALL
AVAILABLE RI AIDS TRIGGERING THIS MODEL RUN. PEAK INTENSITIES RANGE
FROM 100-120 KTS WITH HAFS-A BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL.
MODELS THEN AGREE ON RAPID WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 72 AND MORE
GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 120. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE HAFS-A DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF RAPID
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE EFFECTS OF THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM

[mrbagyo]

it's freakin huge

[ejeraldmc]

PAGASA just raised warning signal 1 for many areas even if it's not 'officially' inside PAR yet. Just shows how big this storm is.

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/PaulBlight6/status/1986530137240699365

[GCANE]

Heading into a lot of shear and dry air.
It's massive size maybe its only thing going for it.

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/hurricane_chase/status/1986567067017900539

[cycloneye]

JTWC up to typhoon.

32W FUNG-WONG 251107 1200 11.9N 135.6E WPAC 65 983

JMA stays as STS.

T2526(Fung-wong)
Issued at 2025/11/07 12:45 UTC
Analysis at 11/07 12 UTC
Grade STS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N12°00′ (12.0°)
E135°30′ (135.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of 50-kt wind area 110 km (60 NM)
Radius of 30-kt wind area 440 km (240 NM)

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1986802163188740170

[sasha_B]

A recent frame on the Himawari-8 floater showed -100.2 C cloud tops....rather impressive. Been a while since I've seen that.

[cycloneye]

I think Melissa will keep its crown for strongest storm of 2025.

[dexterlabio]

^then good news for millions of people if it won't be a historic intense cyclone like Melissa or Haiyan. But this is the Philippine Sea we're talking about so it won't surprise me if this storm tries to make a run at it.

Regardless if it ever reaches high-end 4/5 or not, this is a very dangerous storm.

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/weatherphilipp1/status/1986783559684862140

[sasha_B]

Looks like a new tower going up on the north side of the center & rotating cyclonically. If it keeps up, Fung-Wong's eye could quickly become better-defined. Indeed, right on cue, ADT has identified the center to yield a raw T# of 6.4; I reckon that if it hadn't been for the frequent center misses this morning, objective estimates would be closer to (if not ahead of) the latest subjective fixes from NOAA & JTWC, which stand at T4.0.