WPAC: FUNG-WONG - Typhoon - Discussion

[mrbagyo]

This is the best it has looked so far in its lifetime.
:

[cycloneye]

Josh in Manila and from there the chase begins.

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1986835175414927647

[GCANE]

That escalated quickly

[Hayabusa]

Looks like a CDO now, next step clearing the eye.

[cycloneye]

32W FUNG-WONG 251107 1800 12.2N 133.8E WPAC 70 980

[Hayabusa]

T2526(Fung-wong)
Issued at 2025/11/07 18:45 UTC
Analysis at 11/07 18 UTC
Grade TY
Scale Large
Intensity -
Center position N12°10′ (12.2°)
E134°10′ (134.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of 50-kt wind area 150 km (80 NM)
Radius of 30-kt wind area 500 km (270 NM)

[GCANE]

Very rapid consolidation of the low-level vort

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... anim=html5

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/Sausius_wx/status/1986859689741611066

 https://x.com/BackpirchCrew/status/1986866339609186695

[kevin]

Two hours ago the average CDO temperature was -84.8C and approaching -100C in some parts. Even for the WPAC that's pretty much unheard of (especially for a still relatively weak system). Like completely off the scale.

[sasha_B]

Fung-Wong's center region seems to be warming & the absurdly deep convection around it is still going strong, but if the developing eye is as large as it looks, it'll take a lot to properly clear it out. We're about 36 hours from landfall & the JTWC's forecast peak, so this should be a very interesting system to watch tonight and tomorrow.

[doomhaMwx]

Here comes the eye!

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1986935963575283868

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1986929810120048785

[mrbagyo]

90 knots max on the NW quadrant via SAR

[cycloneye]

T2526(Fung-wong)
Issued at 2025/11/08 00:45 UTC
Analysis at 11/08 00 UTC
Grade TY
Scale Large
Intensity -
Center position N12°35′ (12.6°)
E132°10′ (132.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35 km/h (20 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of 50-kt wind area 150 km (80 NM)
Radius of 30-kt wind area 500 km (270 NM)

32W FUNG-WONG 251108 0000 12.5N 132.1E WPAC 80 975

[sasha_B]

Subjective Dvorak estimates are T5.0 and T4.5 from JTWC and OSPO, respectively. The disparity arises from JTWC adding +0.5 for a banding feature not mentioned in the NOAA fix. Notably, unlike recent ADT estimates, neither satellite bulletin for 2330/0000z mentions an eye.

[dexterlabio]

You can just imagine the amount of energy needed to get those giant DHTs spinning around the eye.

Fung-wong forming a giant eye is a mix of good and bad news. The best news is obviously lowered chances of ERI. That size of an eye would require lots of energy to contract and create a tighter pressure gradient. This storm only has around 30 hours to do so.

The bad news is that typhoons or hurricanes of this proportion tend to bring huge storm surge, and it will not only be in the area where the eye makes landfall (see Nesat 2011 in the Manila Bay area).

Also, very widespread wind and water damage can be expected, even hundreds of miles away from the center.

[mrbagyo]

18Z Euro is showing a possible direct pass over the Capital of Aurora Province.

[cycloneye]

Is moving more west than westnorthwest. That is 270-275 west.

[mrbagyo]