2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Hurricane Mike]

The last few runs of the GFS show a hurricane threat to Western Florida mid November.

[crownweather]

The last few runs of the GFS show a hurricane threat to Western Florida mid November.

Yeah, probably not going to happen. It's likely the GFS doing GFS things. Probably a erroneous spin-up that always occurs with the GFS model this time of year. Until other models jump on-board, I'm discounting.

[blp]

GFS not the only one. 00z Icon and 12z CMC and GEFS showing something.

[Teban54]

GFS continues to show a quick spinup in the SW Caribbean next Wednesday, briefly getting below 1000 mb before landfall in Nicaragua. It's now almost in the 5-day frame.

ICON shows a broad low; not much on other models.

[chaser1]

I'll say this much, unless something does try and coalesce as GFS is hinting, I think we can finally put a bow on this season. The 700mb -300 mb Relative Humidity forecast for 11/20 shows exceedingly dry air from behind the front to envelope most of the Central & Western Caribbean. By that time we'll be nearing the end of the season and it would take some time for any Gyre to propagate northward and modify the air down there.

I suppose there's a slim <10 chance of a quick trigger TS forming in the nearer term down there in the 5-7 day range but beyond that, 2025 should be a wrap.