Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
415 AM AST Wed Nov 5 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 415 AM AST Wed Nov 5 2025

* There is a high chance of urban and small stream flooding today
across the interior into western Puerto Rico and again on Sunday
across eastern and southern areas, as moisture levels are
forecast to increase.

* Mostly fair weather is expected across the U.S. Virgin Islands
today, with a few brief passing showers.

* The risk of rip currents along the north-facing beaches of
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands is expected to increase
late Thursday night into Friday as a northerly swell spreads
across the local waters.

* Heat indices are forecast to range from 100 to 105 degrees F,
posing potential health risks for individuals who are highly
sensitive to heat.

&&

.Short Term (Today through Friday)...
Issued at 415 AM AST Wed Nov 5 2025

Skies were mostly clear to partly cloudy across the local islands
during the overnight hours. Passing showers were observed over the
northern slopes of Puerto Rico, as well as Vieques, Culebra, and the
northern U.S. Virgin Islands. However, rainfall amounts were minimal.
Temperatures ranged from the mid-70s to around 80 degrees F at lower
elevations, and from the mid- to upper-60s in higher terrain.

A mid-level ridge pattern will continue to dominate the region,
though a gradual weakening is expected as an upper-level trough
prevails south of the area. At the surface, a front north of the
area will dissipate while a high-pressure system moves into the
central Atlantic. This high will maintain an east-southeast wind
flow, advecting patches of moisture across the islands from time to
time. Nonetheless, precipitable water values should remain below 2.0
inches and largely confined below 850 mb.

Under this evolving pattern, a typical seasonal weather pattern will
prevail. Expect locally induced afternoon showers across western
Puerto Rico each day, while mainly fair weather conditions persist
elsewhere. Based on the latest guidance, today is likely to be the
wettest day of the period as a moisture patch moves across the area.
Therefore, the flooding risk is elevated today. Shower activity is
then expected to decrease significantly on Thursday and Friday under
a drier air mass.

In addition to the elevated flooding risk today across western
Puerto Rico, there will be a limited heat risk across the islands,
with heat indices ranging from 100 to 105 degrees F. The prevailing
east-southeast wind flow will support slightly above-normal
temperatures at the 925 mb level, particularly on Thursday and
Friday. These conditions mainly affect individuals who are highly
sensitive to heat, especially those spending extended periods
outdoors without proper cooling or hydration.

&&

.Long Term (Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 415 AM AST Wed Nov 5 2025

During the long term period, a surface high-pressure system over
the northern Atlantic is expected to gradually shift eastward. By
the end of the period, this high will generally be positioned over
the central to eastern Atlantic. This pattern will support winds
with an easterly component, becoming breezy from the weekend into
early next week as the pressure gradient tightens. A weak mid-
level ridge will persist north to northeast of the region.

The latest precipitable water (PWAT) guidance indicates values
fluctuating from below-normal to near-normal levels on Saturday,
ranging from around 1.5 to 1.7 inches. This setup will support a
typical weather pattern of quick-moving passing showers across the
windward areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands during
the night and morning hours, followed by afternoon showers and
isolated thunderstorms mainly across western and northwestern
Puerto Rico. These will be driven by diurnal heating, sea-breeze
convergence, and local terrain effects, resulting in a limited
flooding potential. Rain chances are expected to increase on
Sunday, along with a limited to elevated flooding risk, as a
tropical wave moves across the Caribbean waters. This feature will
raise the moisture content to around 2.00 to 2.25 inches of PWAT
(above normal based on climatological data) and enhance moisture
in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. The U.S. Virgin
Islands, as well as the eastern and southern areas of Puerto Rico,
are expected to experience the greatest likelihood of showers,
with winds shifting from northeast to southeast as the wave
passes.

Early next week, in the wake of the tropical wave, alternating
patches of moisture and drier air will continue to move across the
region under a southeasterly flow. A strengthening mid level
ridge will promote stability and drier air aloft. As a result, the
return of a typical weather pattern is expected: passing showers
across the windward areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands during the night and morning hours, followed by afternoon
showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly across western Puerto
Rico. No significant impacts are anticipated.

Regarding temperatures, a none to limited heat risk is expected to
persist throughout the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 415 AM AST Wed Nov 5 2025

VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites with -SHRA at JSJ/JBQ
early this morning. SHRA/TSRA may develop across W PR after 05/17Z,
possibly affecting JBQ and JPS through about 05/22z. ESE winds at 10-
15 kts and typical sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 AM AST Wed Nov 5 2025

A weak surface high pressure system over the central to eastern
Atlantic will maintain light to moderate easterly winds over the next
few days. Meanwhile, a surface low moving across the northwestern
Atlantic will generate a northerly swell, increasing seas to around 6
feet or higher across the Atlantic waters and local Caribbean passages
by late Thursday into Friday. Additionally, moderate to fresh easterly
winds are anticipated by next weekend, along with a better chance of
showers as a tropical wave moves across the Caribbean waters. Small
craft operators will likely need to exercise caution.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 415 AM AST Wed Nov 5 2025

Today, there is a moderate risk of rip currents for the northern
and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico and Culebra. Beachgoers should
exercise caution, as life-threatening rip currents are possible
along the surf zones. A low risk prevails elsewhere.

By Thursday night into Friday, a weak northerly swell will begin
to affect the local Atlantic waters and northern coastlines. This
will lead to breaking waves around 5 to 6 feet, and the moderate
rip current risk will expand to include western Puerto Rico,
Vieques, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. By Friday, a high risk of
rip currents is anticipated for north and east-facing beaches of
Puerto Rico, Culebra, and northern U.S. Virgin Islands.

Additional hazards include the development of isolated thunderstorms
near the coasts during the afternoon hours. If you hear thunder,
seek shelter inside a building immediately. Residents and visitors
should continue monitoring the beach forecast for updates or changes.
For detailed information about your area of interest, please visit
weather.gov/beach/sju.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
318 AM AST Thu Nov 6 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 308 AM AST Thu Nov 6 2025


* As a northerly swell spreads across the local waters tonight
into Friday, the risk of rip currents along the north-facing
beaches of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands is expected to
increase. Life-threatening rip currents are likely within the
surf zone.

* The flooding risk will increase on Sunday, particularly across
the eastern portions of Puerto Rico, as a tropical wave moves
across the forecast area.


* Limited heat risk could cause heat-related discomfort,
especially in coastal and urban areas during peak hours of the
day though early in the weekend.

* Breezy conditions increasing late this week will create choppy
seas. Small craft should exercise caution. Additionally, a high
risk of rip currents is expected along north-facing beaches by
Friday as a weak northerly swell reaches the Atlantic waters.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 308 AM AST Thu Nov 6 2025

Fair weather conditions prevailed overnight, with mostly clear skies
and a few passing showers observed over the local waters. Overnight
temperatures ranged from the mid-70s to around 80°F at lower
elevations, and from the mid- to upper-60s across higher terrain.

The short-term forecast remains on track, with a ridge pattern
prevailing at mid levels and a surface high promoting east-southeast
winds. As a result, a generally fair weather pattern will persist
across Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands through at least
Saturday. However, afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms are
still expected across western Puerto Rico each day, driven by sea
breeze convergence and pockets of low-level moisture advected by the
prevailing winds. While moisture will fluctuate at times, the latest
model guidance continues to indicate precipitable water values below
1.75 inches through the forecast period. Additionally, the 500 mb
temperatures are forecast to slightly warm from around -6 to -7C to
near -5C.

Under this pattern, the flooding threat remains limited across west
Puerto Rico, with ponding of water possible on roadways and in
poorly drained areas. The aforementioned east-southeast flow will
support slightly above-normal temperatures at the 925 mb level today
and Friday. These warmer conditions may affect heat-sensitive
individuals, particularly those engaging in prolonged outdoor
activities without adequate hydration or cooling.

&&

.Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)...
Issued at 308 AM AST Thu Nov 6 2025

The inherited forecast remains unchanged. On Sunday, the main feature
will be the presence of a tropical wave moving across the
Caribbean waters, bringing a surge of deep tropical moisture over
the region. Precipitable water values are forecast to increase to
around 2.00 to 2.25 inches, which is above the climatological
average for this time of year. In addition, the latest model
guidance indicates that temperatures in the 500 mb layer will
decrease to around -7 degrees Celsius, suggesting mid-level
instability that will enhance vertical development of convection.
As a result, scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. Virgin Islands and the
eastern and southern portions of Puerto Rico, spreading inland
throughout the day. With the combination of abundant moisture and
instability, a limited to elevated flooding risk is possible,
particularly across areas that experience persistent or heavy
rainfall.

In the wake of the tropical wave, residual moisture will persist
across the region, resulting in scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms throughout the day. Although overall instability
will begin to decrease, the remaining moisture and local effects
may still support localized flooding, particularly in the interior
and western parts of Puerto Rico. Therefore, a limited flooding
risk will persist into the beginning of the work week.

From Tuesday onward, a more typical weather pattern is expected
to return as drier air and a strengthening mid-level ridge promote
stability across the region. Under a southeasterly flow, expect
passing showers across windward areas during the night and morning
hours, followed by isolated to scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms, mainly across western and northwestern Puerto Rico
due to local and diurnal effects.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 308 AM AST Thu Nov 6 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites. SHRA/TSRA
may develop across W PR after 06/17Z, possibly affecting JBQ and JPS
through about 06/22z. This may result in brief MVFR conditions. ESE
winds at 10-15 kts and typical sea breeze variations to continue.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 308 AM AST Thu Nov 6 2025

A weak surface high pressure system over the central to eastern
Atlantic will maintain light to moderate easterly winds over the next
few days. Meanwhile, a surface low moving across the northwestern
Atlantic will generate a northerly swell, increasing seas to around 6
feet or higher across the Atlantic waters and local Caribbean passages
by late Thursday into Friday. Additionally, moderate to fresh easterly
winds are anticipated by this weekend, along with a better chance of
showers as a tropical wave moves across the Caribbean waters. Small
craft operators will likely need to exercise caution.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 308 AM AST Thu Nov 6 2025

A northerly swell will begin to build across the Atlantic waters
and northern coastlines, causing seas to increase and the rip
current risk to expand westward, including western Puerto Rico,
Vieques, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, late today into Friday
night. By Friday, a high risk of rip currents is expected for
north- and east- facing beaches of Puerto Rico, possibly adding Culebra,
and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands later today, where life-
threatening rip currents will be possible.

A few afternoon showers or isolated thunderstorms could develop near
the coast, particularly across western Puerto Rico. If you hear
thunder, move indoors immediately.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
350 AM AST Fri Nov 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 243 AM AST Fri Nov 7 2025

* Life-threatening rip currents are likely along the Atlantic
shorelines as a northerly swell continues to affect the local
waters.

* The flooding risk will increase on Sunday, particularly across
the eastern portions of Puerto Rico, as a tropical wave moves
across the forecast area.

* After Monday, decreasing flooding risk to limited and none is
forecast with the gradual improvement in weather conditions
across the islands.

* Across the US Virgin Islands, passing showers to continue with a
high risk of rip currents for Saint Thomas and Saint John today.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 243 AM AST Fri Nov 7 2025

Partly cloudy skies prevailed overnight, with passing showers
observed across the local waters, eastern Puerto Rico, and the
outlying islands. Temperatures were in the mid-70s to around 80
degrees at lower elevations and from the mid- to upper-60s at
higher elevations.

A mid-level ridge will continue to dominate the local region, with
some strengthening expected toward the end of the forecast period.
At the surface, a high-pressure system over the central Atlantic
will maintain east-southeast winds across the islands, while a
tropical wave/easterly disturbance is forecast to move through the
area on Sunday. As this feature approaches the eastern Caribbean,
moisture advection is expected to increase. The GFS model remains
more aggressive in its depiction of this moisture surge compared
to the ECMWF guidance. Nevertheless, precipitable water values are
expected to rise steadily, reaching or exceeding 2.0 inches by
Sunday.

As a result, the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms will then
increase late Saturday into Sunday as the tropical wave moves across
the local islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity will focus over
eastern Puerto Rico from Saturday night into Sunday morning,
spreading westward through the day on Sunday. Although these showers
are expected to move quickly as the 925 mb winds strengthen, the
flooding risk will increase on Sunday, with the potential for urban
and small stream flooding under the heaviest activity.

Meanwhile today and Saturday, continue to expect afternoon showers
and isolated thunderstorms across western Puerto Rico, driven by sea
breeze convergence. Elsewhere, passing showers at times,
particularly eastern Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra and the US Virgin
Islands Friday night into early Saturday morning.

&&

.Long Term(Monday through Friday)...
Issued at 243 AM AST Fri Nov 7 2025

Residual moisture from the passage of the tropical wave on Sunday
will linger across the region on Monday, maintaining a moist
environment conducive to scattered showers throughout the day and
isolated thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon.
Although mid-level instability will gradually weaken, localized
flooding remains possible, particularly over western and
northwestern portions of Puerto Rico, where diurnal and local
effects may enhance convection.

By Tuesday, model guidance continues to suggest a gradual
improvement in weather conditions as a mid- to upper-level ridge
strengthens over the area. This ridge will promote increased
atmospheric stability and a gradual drying trend. Relative
humidity values between 700 and 500 mb are expected to range
between the 50th and 25th percentiles, corresponding to near-
normal to below-normal moisture levels for this time of year.
Through at least Friday, the ridge will remain the dominant
feature, maintaining mostly stable and fair weather conditions.
Under the easterly wind flow, expect brief passing showers over
windward and coastal areas during the nighttime and early morning
hours, followed by isolated to scattered afternoon showers and a
few thunderstorms across western Puerto Rico each day, driven
mainly by local and diurnal effects. Overall, a return to a more
typical trade wind pattern is anticipated for mid-to-late week,
with below-average Relative Humidity and Precipitable Water
values, and limited flooding potential.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 243 AM AST Fri Nov 7 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites through the
forecast cycle. However, SHRA/TSRA may develop across W PR after
07/17Z, possibly affecting JBQ through about 07/22z. This may result
in brief MVFR conditions. ESE winds at 10-15 kts and typical sea
breeze variations to continue.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 AM AST Fri Nov 7 2025

A surface high pressure, building from the western to central
Atlantic, will result in a moderate to locally fresh east to east-
southeasterly wind flow. A north to northeasterly swell will spread
across the local Atlantic Waters and Caribbean Passages, peaking by
this morning, followed by a smaller secondary northeasterly swell
during the weekend. A tropical wave will move across the Lesser
Antilles by Saturday, reaching the USVI and PR on Sunday. This
tropical wave is expected to bring unsettled weather conditions,
and an increase in local winds and seas.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 243 AM AST Fri Nov 7 2025

A northerly swell will begin to build across the Atlantic waters
and northern coastlines, causing seas to increase and the rip
current risk to expand westward posing a risk for high rip
currents along the north and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico,
Culebra, and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands through Saturday,
where life- threatening rip currents will be possible. Weather-
wise, a few afternoon showers or isolated thunderstorms could
develop near the coast, particularly across western Puerto Rico.
If you hear thunder, move indoors immediately.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
355 AM AST Sat Nov 8 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 AM AST Sat Nov 8 2025

* A tropical wave will bring more widespread showers and
thunderstorms on Sunday, especially across eastern Puerto Rico,
with an increased risk of urban and small-stream flooding.
Breezy conditions are also expected.

* Life-threatening rip currents are likely across most shorelines
through at least early next week.

* A seasonable weather pattern will prevail the upcoming
workweek, with no significant weather threats anticipated at
this time.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, tropical wave moving across the
eastern Caribbean tonight into Sunday will bring an increase in
passing showers.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM AST Sat Nov 8 2025

Overnight, most of the frequent rainfall activity was observed
across the eastern and southern sections of Puerto Rico, where
rainfall accumulations ranged from 0.10 to 0.50 inches. Therefore,
over those areas, skies remained mostly cloudy, while partly cloudy
to clear skies prevailed elsewhere, particularly across western
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Temperatures ranged from
the upper 70s to low 80s along the coastal areas and from the upper
60s to low 70s across the mountainous regions.

Today, typical local effects will dominate the weather pattern. Sea
breeze convergence is expected to lead to the development of
afternoon showers and a few isolated thunderstorms over western
Puerto Rico. Elsewhere, especially across eastern Puerto Rico,
Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, occasional passing
showers are possible during the night and early morning hours.
Temperatures are expected to reach the mid- to upper 80s across
coastal areas and the mid- to upper 70s across the higher terrain.
Winds will gradually increase from today onward as a tropical wave
approaches the region from the southeast.

As the weekend progresses, a tropical wave moving across the eastern
Caribbean will bring a gradual increase in moisture. On Sunday,
precipitable water values are expected to increase to above-normal
levels for this time of year, reaching the 75th percentile. The
latest model guidance suggests relative humidity at 500 mb will
remain near to slightly above normal through this period, further
supporting vertical development of convective activity. This will
enhance the potential for more widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the area. The most active period is anticipated
Sunday afternoon. Regardless, eastern Puerto Rico is forecast to
experience the greatest rainfall activity. These showers will move
quickly with the strengthening easterly winds, but some may produce
heavy rainfall capable of causing urban and small stream flooding,
particularly in low-lying or poor drainage areas.

By Monday, lingering moisture behind the departing tropical wave
will maintain unstable weather conditions across the region.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected through
the day, particularly across western and interior Puerto Rico during
the afternoon. While the overall intensity of rainfall is expected
to be lower compared to Sunday, periods of moderate to locally heavy
rain could still lead to ponding of water on roadways and minor
flooding in isolated spots. Temperatures will remain near normal for
this time of year, with highs in the mid-80s along the coast and
cooler readings across higher terrain.

&&

.Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM AST Sat Nov 8 2025

A mid- to upper-level ridge will dominate the local weather
pattern throughout the forecast period, maintaining relatively
stable conditions across the region. At the surface, a broad high-
pressure system positioned northeast of the islands will yield an
easterly wind flow. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary is forecast to
stall north of the area toward the end of the cycle.

Under the subsidence associated with the ridge aloft, available
moisture is forecast to erode from Tuesday onward. Precipitable
water values are expected to decrease to below 1.75 inches, while
500 mb temperatures are anticipated to range between -4°C and
-5°C. This combination will promote a more stable and drier air
mass, limiting vertical development of showers and overall
convective activity.

As a result, a seasonal weather pattern is anticipated across Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands with passing showers affecting
portions of eastern Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, and the U.S.
Virgin Islands during the nighttime and early morning hours,
followed by limited afternoon convection over western and interior
Puerto Rico, driven by local effects and diurnal heating.
Additionally, seasonable temperatures are expected to prevail,
with daytime highs reaching the mid-to-upper 80s in coastal areas
and lower elevations.

No significant weather threats are anticipated at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 300 AM AST Sat Nov 8 2025

All TAF sites should experience VFR conditions. However, SHRA/TSRA
may develop across W PR after 08/17Z, possibly affecting JBQ through
about 08/22z. This may result in brief periods of MVFR conditions.
ESE winds at 10-15 kts and higher gust near the heaviest rainfall
activity and typical sea breeze variations to continue. Increase in
VCSH over TISX, TIST, and TJSJ after 09/00Z as a tropical wave
continues to approach the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM AST Sat Nov 8 2025

A surface high pressure across the north-central Atlantic will
yield moderate easterly winds across the local waters during the
next several days. An increase in winds and shower activity is
expected on Sunday as a tropical wave/easterly disturbance moves
across the eastern Caribbean. Although the northerly swell will
continue to subside, a smaller secondary northeasterly swell will
continue to affect the local waters during the weekend.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 300 AM AST Sat Nov 8 2025

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue to prevail across
most of the shorelines of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands
through at least Monday. Therefore, life-threatening rip currents
are likely in the surf zone, particularly near piers, jetties, and
channels. Conditions are expected to improve by mid-week, next
week.

&&

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
335 AM AST Sun Nov 9 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 AM AST Sun Nov 9 2025

* An easterly wave will elevate the flooding risk over portions
of eastern Puerto Rico with numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms today.

* Increased frequency of passing showers across the US Virgin
Islands today as the easterly wave moves across the forecast
area.

* Small crafts should exercise caution due to choppy seas while
swimmers need to avoid high-risk beaches due to a moderate risk
of rip currents.

* Improving weather conditions across Puerto Rico and the US
Virgin Islands from Monday onwards, with no significant weather
threats anticipated through at least the end of the workweek.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM AST Sun Nov 9 2025

During the overnight hours, mostly calm weather prevailed across the
islands and the most active weather over the Caribbean waters. The
first few showers associated with the approaching easterly wave that
reached the islands, produced minimal rainfall accumulations over
the US Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico. Most weather stations
reported between 0.10 and 0.30 inches of rain. Overnight
temperatures stayed in the upper 70s to low 80s across coastal
areas, while higher elevations remained in the upper 60s to low 70s,
similar to previous nights. Winds were generally SE and variable at
times, with the official weather stations at Henry E. Rohlsen
Airport (St. Croix) and Cyril E. King Airport (St. Thomas) recording
gusts near 23 knots as the wave continued to approach from the east.

For today, winds are expected to increase as the easterly wave moves
across the local area. The latest model guidance indicates
precipitable water (PWAT) values near or above the 75th percentile,
along with enhanced 700 to 500 mb (mid-level) relative humidity.
These conditions favor scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms, some capable of producing frequent lightning and
locally heavy rainfall. The eastern half of Puerto Rico is expected
to experience the most active weather as the wave passes through.
Ponding of water on roadways, as well as an elevated risk for urban
and small stream flooding, are possible in areas receiving the
heaviest rainfall.

By Monday, the wave will move west of the region, leading to gradual
improvement in weather conditions. A mid- to upper-level ridge will
then build, promoting a trade wind inversion near 900 mb and PWAT
values decreasing to around 1.0 inch. While passing showers may
still affect the eastern sections due to lingering moisture, overall
stability will increase. Daytime heating and local effects could
still trigger isolated afternoon showers across western Puerto Rico,
but the flooding risk will remain low and localized.

By Tuesday, fair conditions are expected under the influence of the
ridge pattern. Trade winds will remain moderate to occasionally
breezy, with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Any showers that
develop will be brief and mainly concentrated over the interior and
western portions of Puerto Rico during the afternoon.

Temperatures will continue seasonably warm, with highs in the mid to
upper 80s across coastal and urban areas and lows in the mid-70s. In
the mountains, expect lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Areas that
remain under cloud cover or frequent showers will likely experience
slightly lower daytime highs.

&&

.Long Term(Wednesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM AST Sun Nov 9 2025

A mid- to upper-level ridge will prevail across the local islands
through the forecast cycle, with some weakening anticipated
toward the end of the period as a polar trough and its associated
frontal boundary move across the western and central Atlantic. At
the surface, a broad high-pressure system positioned northeast of
the islands will maintain easterly winds through at least the end
of the workweek. However, as the aforementioned surface front
approaches the area, winds are expected to veer to east-southeast
and become light and variable. Under the subsidence associated
with the ridge aloft, precipitable water values are expected to
remain below normal for much of the workweek. However, an increase
in PW values is expected over the upcoming weekend as the ridge
aloft weakens and the surface front moves closer to the local
islands.

As a result, a seasonable weather pattern is anticipated across Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, with a few passing showers
affecting portions of eastern Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, and
the U.S. Virgin Islands during the nighttime and early morning
hours, followed by limited afternoon convection across western and
interior Puerto Rico. Additionally, seasonable temperatures will
prevail, with daytime highs reaching the mid-to-upper 80s across
coastal and lower-elevation areas.

Overall, no significant weather threats are currently anticipated.
However, the flooding potential may increase toward the end of
the period due to moisture advection associated with the
approaching frontal boundary.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 300 AM AST Sun Nov 9 2025

VFR conditions across all TAF sites through most of the period.
However, as the tropical wave approaches the local area, an increase
in SH and VCTS is expected, particularly affecting TJSJ, TIST, and
TISX with periods of MVFR condt possible after 09/10Z. Brief
reductions in visibility and low ceilings are likely with the
heavier activity. VCTS possible over TJPS and TJBQ after 09/17Z with
the local effects. Surface winds will be from the east to southeast
(E-SE) at 12–16 knots, with occasional gusts up to 23 knots
developing between 09/13Z and 09/14Z. Winds will remain gusty at
times near the rainfall activity.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM AST Sun Nov 9 2025

A surface high pressure across the north central Atlantic will
promote easterly winds, becoming moderate to locally fresh through
Monday. Additionally, an increase in shower and thunderstorm
activity is expected today as an easterly wave moves across the
eastern Caribbean.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 300 AM AST Sun Nov 9 2025

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue to prevail across
most of the shorelines of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands
through at least Tuesday. Therefore, life-threatening rip
currents are possible in the surf zone, particularly near piers,
jetties, and channels. Conditions are expected to deteriorate by
the end of the workweek.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
230 AM AST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 228 AM AST Mon Nov 10 2025

* Fair weather will persist through much of the period, with brief
interruptions of showers reaching the islands at times.

* The risk of rip currents will increase to high on Thursday for the
northern coast of Puerto Rico, including Culebra.

* Seasonably warm temperatures, plenty of sunshine, and only a few
showers are in the forecast for the Virgin Islands for most of
the week.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 228 AM AST Mon Nov 10 2025

Fair and stable weather conditions prevailed across Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands overnight. However, some patches of
cloudiness filtered across eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands, producing a few light showers that led to minimal rainfall
accumulations. Temperatures remained in the 70s across urban and
coastal areas and in the 60s to low 70s in the higher elevations as
skies cleared during the night, unlike previous days.

The latest satellite imagery indicates a drier air mass advancing
from the Lesser Antilles, which will gradually filter across the
U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today into midweek. The latest
model guidance also shows this trend, suggesting a decline in
precipitable water values and 700 to 500 mb relative humidity levels
to near one inch, particularly by late Monday into Tuesday. Meaning
that only brief showers are expected over eastern Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands during the overnight and morning hours,
while in the afternoons, some localized showers may develop across
western Puerto Rico due to sea breeze convergence and local effects,
but no flooding concerns are anticipated through the short term
period.

Tuesday remains on track to be the driest day of the forecast
period, as a strong mid-level ridge continues to dominate the
region, maintaining fair weather conditions. Occasionally breezy
easterly trade winds will filter across, bringing isolated quick-
moving showers across windward areas during the night and early
morning, followed by mostly sunny skies during the day. Any
afternoon convection will be brief and localized mainly over the
interior and western Puerto Rico.

By Wednesday, similar conditions are expected, with limited moisture
and continued influence of the ridge pattern, resulting in stable
weather and near-normal temperatures across the region.

&&

.Long Term(Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 228 AM AST Mon Nov 10 2025

A mid to upper level ridge will stay in place for the end of the
workweek and the weekend, maintaining a fair weather pattern across
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. North of the ridge, a polar
trough will move from the eastern coast of the United States into
the Atlantic Ocean. This will maintain the trade winds week, mostly
coming from the southeast at speeds of 11 kts on Thursday, and less
than 3 to 8 knots from Friday into early next week. For most of the
period, columnar moisture will be below normal, so rainfall activity
will be limited to a few showers along eastern Puerto Rico and the
United States, and limited convection in the west in the afternoon
hours. The risk of urban and small stream flooding will be low to
none for the period.

The day with the highest chances of rain will be on Saturday, as a
frontal boundary approaches the region. Even then, rainfall is not
expected to be widespread or too strong, but with enough moisture,
showers should fire up along the interior of Puerto Rico, while
others also reach the Virgin Islands occasionally.

Temperatures will be seasonably warm too, or slightly above normal,
with highs still in the mid and upper 80s in urban and low elevated
areas. Los will be mostly in the 70s for coastal areas, and in the
60s for the highest mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 228 AM AST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all TAF sites through
the period. VCSH possible at TJBQ and TJPS after 10/17Z, and at
TJSJ, TIST, and TISX after 11/00Z. Surface winds will remain from
the east at 10 to 15 knots, with occasional higher gusts, mainly
during the late morning and afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 228 AM AST Mon Nov 10 2025

A surface high pressure over the north central Atlantic will promote
moderate to locally fresh easterly winds for the next few days,
maintaining choppy seas. A north-northwesterly swell will bring
hazardous marine conditions across the local waters and passages by
midweek.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 228 AM AST Mon Nov 10 2025

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue to prevail across most
of the shorelines of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, with
possible life-threatening rip currents in the surf zone. By late
Wednesday and Thursday, a north-northwesterly swell will bring
hazardous beach conditions, particularly along north-facing beaches
of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, increasing the risk of
rip currents to moderate to high. Beachgoers are urged to heed the
advice of the flag warning system and to always swim near a
lifeguard.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
423 AM AST Tue Nov 11 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 419 AM AST Tue Nov 11 2025

* Mostly stable weather conditions for today and tomorrow, with
only a few areas that would experience afternoon convection
and a limited flood threat.

* From Saturday into Sunday, weather conditions will deteriorate
as a frontal boundary approaches north of the islands.

* On Thursday into Friday, a long-period northerly swell will
result in a high risk of rip currents along the north-facing
beaches in PR and the USVI.

* The U.S. Virgin Islands will enjoy stable and fair weather
conditions from today into Friday, with some passing showers in
the early morning hours.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 419 AM AST Tue Nov 11 2025

A few showers were observed during the nighttime over the local
waters, and occasionally reaching portions of eastern Puerto Rico
and the Virgin Islands. However, rainfall accumulations were mostly
light, and most of the area saw clear skies and temperatures in the
70s.

Generally stable conditions are expected to prevail through much of
the workweek. At the upper levels, a ridge is centered just west of
Puerto Rico. At the mid levels, the ridge is centered just to the
northeast of the Caribbean. At the surface, high pressure is driving
the trade winds from the southeast, at speeds just below 15 knots.
In these winds, irregular patches of moisture, induced by an upper
level trough located east of the Lesser Antilles, will reach the
islands at times. This rain interruptions are expected to be brief,
and flooding is not anticipated. Also, diurnal heating is expected
to fire up showers in the northwest each afternoon, but rainfall
accumulation are expected to be minimal as well.

Temperatures are expected to be a little warmer than normal, with
highs mostly in the upper 80s, and lows in the 70s for coastal
areas, and in the 60s in the mountains.

&&

.Long Term...Friday through Tuesday...

A variable weather pattern is expected through the long term
period as a frontal boundary moves southward during the first part
of the forecast. From Friday into early Saturday, the local
islands will be dominated by an easterly wind flow. Under this
pattern, patches of shallow moisture with precipitable water
values between 1.2 and 1.6 inches will persist, remaining near
climatological normals. Although some moisture will be present, a
mid- to upper-level ridge will limit shower development across
most areas, leaving a moderate to high chance of afternoon showers
over the western interior on Friday.

Late Saturday into the upcoming workweek, the surface pattern
will shift as the frontal boundary approaches and weakens the
pressure gradient. Winds will veer from the north-northwest late
Saturday into Sunday, increasing the potential for passing showers
due to a cold advection pattern. This setup will promote showers
across the coastal waters and portions of the northern coast
during the morning and evening hours. However, significant
rainfall accumulations are not anticipated during this period.

A surface high pressure building over the western portion of the
Central Atlantic will weaken the frontal boundary early next week,
returning the local flow to an east-southeast direction from
Monday into Tuesday. This will promote a more typical weather
regime with heat indices possibly reaching 108 degrees in some
areas, followed by afternoon convection across the interior and
western Puerto Rico. &&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 419 AM AST Tue Nov 11 2025

Mostly VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period. SHRA will move at times across the local terminals and
surrounding waters, but impacts to operations are expected to be
minimal to none. However, from 18-22Z, SHRA are expected in the
vicinity of TJBQ, with periods of reduced VIS possible. Winds will
be from the SE at 11-14 kts, with gusts around 20 kts, especially
from 14-21Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 419 AM AST Tue Nov 11 2025

A broad surface high pressure extending from the north into the
Central Atlantic will maintain a moderate to locally fresh
easterly wind flow across the regional waters. A north-
northwesterly swell is forecast to arrive by Wednesday, increasing
seas and producing hazardous marine conditions across the offshore
Atlantic waters. Seas are expected to build to around 7 feet.
Small Craft Advisories may be required later today or tomorrow.
&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 419 AM AST Tue Nov 11 2025

A moderate risk of rip currents will persist through today into
tomorrow. A north-northwesterly swell arriving by Wednesday will
increase seas and result in hazardous surf conditions along the
northern beaches of Puerto Rico. Beachgoers should remain alert
and stay tuned for updates to the rip current risk forecast.&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
443 AM AST Wed Nov 12 2025


.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 439 AM AST Wed Nov 12 2025

* Variable conditions are expected to prevail from today through
Friday, with mostly stable weather and passing showers in the
afternoon for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
* From Saturday into Sunday, an increase in showers and fresher
temperatures is forecast as a frontal boundary approaches.

* Hazardous marine and coastal conditions with seas up to 7 feet
across the offshore Atlantic waters and a high risk of rip
currents along the north exposed beaches of Puerto Rico,
Culebra, and St. Croix from this evening throught Thursday.

* For the U.S. Virgin Islands, isolated passing showers are
forecast for the day, with a similar weather pattern for
tomorrow.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Friday)...
Issued at 439 AM AST Wed Nov 12 2025

The most recent satellite imagery show an area of enhanced moisture
covering the northeast Caribbean, with precipitable water values
around 1.5 inches. This brought a few showers during the overnight
hours across eastern Puerto Rico and the northern Virgin Islands.
Rainfall accumulations was minimal. Skies were mostly clear to
partly cloudy, and temperatures dropped into the mid and upper 70s
in coastal areas, and the 60s in the mountain.

Local conditions will be dominated by a ridge in the mid and upper
levels, that is maintaining moisture trapped closer to the surface.
East of the Lesser Antilles, an upper level trough continues to
induce small patches of moisture that will be carried by the trade
winds irregularly. Even when the atmosphere is not prime for strong
shower production, some brief interruptions of rainfall is expected
at times along eastern Puerto Rico and in the Virgin Islands.
Rainfall in the afternoon should also be brief, with a very low risk
of flooding, mostly along western Puerto Rico.

By Friday, the ridge weakens in response to a long wave polar trough
exiting the eastern coast of the United States. This will cause the
trade winds to weaken, at speeds of 4 to 8 kts. While moisture will
remain limited, conditions could allow for stronger convection to
form in the afternoon along the interior of Puerto Rico.
Nevertheless, the risk of flooding should remain limited.

&&

.Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 439 AM AST Wed Nov 12 2025

The islands will be dominated mainly by a pre-frontal trough at
the surface and a trough at the mid-to-upper levels. At the
surface, the surface trough will weaken the pressure gradient,
resulting in variable and light winds from Saturday into Sunday
along the islands. According to the global model guidance, the
frontal boundary will dissipate just north of the region as a
surface high pressure builds just across the western Atlantic,
extending into the Central Atlantic. Although the frontal boundary
will remain to our north, enough deep enough moisture will reach
the islands. The available moisture trapped in the first 300 MB
[1000-700 MB] with precipitable water values from 1.5 to 1.7
inches, which are normal values for this time, will allow the
development of afternoon convection. Isolated thunderstorms are
expected, with the heaviest activity forecasted due to some
instability caused by the presence of the mid-level trough, which
enhances colder temperatures at 500 MB, ranging between -6 and -7
degrees Celsius. Since winds will be variable, the focus of the
showers and the translation movement can contribute to some
isolated urban flooding, with the heaviest showers occurring
during the afternoon hours.

From Monday onwards, as the surface high pressure migrates further
into the Central Atlantic, veering winds from the east-southeast
will again change the weather pattern across the islands.
Therefore, residents can expect a more typical weather pattern,
with an increase in heat indices in some coastal areas and
afternoon convection primarily across eastern sections of Puerto
Rico, specifically in the vicinity of El Yunque, extending to some
metropolitan areas and northwestern Puerto Rico. Rainfall
accumulation is not forecast to be significant; however, some
isolated urban and minor flooding cannot be ruled out in low-
lying areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 439 AM AST Wed Nov 12 2025

Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail through the forecast
period. SCT SHRA will persist across the Atlantic and Caribbean
waters, occasionally reaching the USVI and PR terminals. However,
impacts to operations are expected to be minimal to none. After 17Z,
SHRA are expected to develop in the Cordillera Central, which could
cause mountain obscuration, and very briefly reducing VIS and
ceilings in the vicinity of TJPS. Winds will be from the ENE at 12-
16 kts, with stronger gusts.
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 439 AM AST Wed Nov 12 2025

A broad surface high pressure over the north-central Atlantic will
continue to promote moderate to locally fresh easterly winds across
the regional waters during the next few days, keeping choppy to
occasionally rough seas. Hazardous marine conditions are forecast due
to a north- northwesterly swell spreading across the local Atlantic
waters and passages from this evening through Thursday evening. As a
result, Small Craft Advisories will be in effect starting Wednesday
evening.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 439 AM AST Wed Nov 12 2025

For today, a low risk of rip currents will persist along all
coastal areas of Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, and the U.S.
Virgin Islands, increasing to moderate during nighttime hours. A
north-northwesterly swell is forecast to arrive across the
northern coastal areas from Thursday, enhancing breaking waves up
to 7 feet, resulting in a high risk of rip current. Beachgoers are
urged to stay tuned for further updates.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
338 AM AST Thu Nov 13 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 335 AM AST Thu Nov 13 2025

* Dangerous beach conditions along northern Puerto Rico, Culebra,
St. Thomas and St. Croix. Avoid approaching or swimming in these
beaches.

* Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
along western Puerto Rico. There is a low risk of urban and small
stream flooding.

* For the Virgin Islands, seasonably warm temperatures and passing
showers are expected. No significant threat are expected over
land areas.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 335 AM AST Thu Nov 13 2025

A variable weather pattern prevailed overnight, with frequent
passing showers along the local waters and some reaching the
northeast coast of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Shower
activity remained limited across the interior and western portions
of Puerto Rico. Minimum temperatures stayed in the mid-to-upper 70s
across the mountain areas, with slightly warmer readings across the
coastal zones in the upper 70s to low 80s, including the U.S. Virgin
Islands. Winds were from the east at 10 mph or less with land breeze
variations.

For today, a variable weather pattern is forecast, mainly influenced
by surface high pressure over the Central Atlantic, resulting in
easterly winds. This surface flow will keep the islands under a
moist pattern due to patches of moisture from an induced surface
trough just north of the area, with precipitable water values around
1.6 inches, near climatological normals. With sufficient low-level
moisture, local effects, and colder temperatures at 500 MB
decreasing from -5 to -6 °C, a convective pattern will develop,
especially across the western interior. Although widespread activity
is not expected, isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. A
drying trend is anticipated on Friday as precipitable water values
decrease to the 25th percentile, allowing for a calmer weather
pattern with isolated showers, particularly during the night hours.

Surface conditions are expected to change rapidly late Saturday as
an approaching frontal boundary sinks southward north of the
islands, while the pre-frontal trough weakens the pressure gradient.
This evolving pattern will result in light and variable winds, as
suggested by the 925 MB winds, which are forecast to weaken to near
5 knots. At upper levels, a decrease in 250 MB heights will enhance
divergence aloft, supporting upward motion, while the 850–700 MB
layer will show a spike in moisture values above the normal
climatological range. As a result, an increase in shower activity is
expected across the offshore Atlantic waters, extending into the
northern coastal areas by Saturday afternoon.

&&

.Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)...
Issued at 335 AM AST Thu Nov 13 2025

A polar trough will escort a cold front near the area on Sunday,
increasing moisture across the region. Ahead of the front, high
pressure centered over the eastern Atlantic will drive the trade
winds from the south at speeds of only 3 to 4 kts. So far, the
global models only indicate precipitable water values near normal
levels, and also quite a large dew point depression in the mid
levels. This means that a widespread rainfall event is not expected.
However, some showers will reach the islands at times. Also, the
heaviest activity is expected to develop along the interior of
Puerto Rico due to local effects.

As the front dissipated north of the region, a short wave trough in
the upper levels will move into the region. This will cause mid-
levels temperatures to cool down, increasing instability aloft.
Moisture levels will not be impressive though, but should be enough
to see a few thunderstorms developing each afternoon along the
interior and western Puerto Rico. The risk of flooding is low at
this time, although isolated urban and small stream flooding cannot
be ruled out.

By the end of the week, another trough digs from the northeast. A
surface reflection of this trough will change the winds from the
northeast, at speeds of 10 to 15 mph. The islands are not expected
to be in the most favorable area for deep convection to develop, but
the frequency of passing showers could increase for portions of
northeast Puerto Rico, as well as for the Virgin Islands.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 335 AM AST Thu Nov 13 2025

VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites during the period.
After 13/15Z, winds will increase again from the east at around 15
knots with sea breeze variations. Afternoon showers may lead to
lower ceilings and reduced visibility, resulting in brief MVFR
conditions at TJBQ and TJPS between 13/17Z and 13/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 335 AM AST Thu Nov 13 2025

A north-northwesterly swell will continue to arrive today,
deteriorating marine conditions. Conditions are expected to gradually
improve tomorrow. A broad surface high pressure over the north-central
Atlantic will continue to promote moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds across the regional waters during the next few days, keeping
choppy to occasionally rough seas.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 335 AM AST Thu Nov 13 2025

An approaching north-northwesterly swell will spread across the
local Atlantic Waters and Caribbean Passages today, deteriorating
the coastal conditions into tonight. Thus, life-threatening rip
currents are expected to form from Rincon to Fajardo and Culebra
late tonight or early Thursday morning, creating a High Risk of
rip currents. Meanwhile, the risk will moderate for the north-
facing beaches along St. Thomas, St. John, and the Adjacent
Islands. Conditions will improve gradually tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
411 AM AST Fri Nov 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 408 AM AST Fri Nov 14 2025

* High rip current risk remains today for northern Puerto Rico,
Culebra, St. Thomas and St. John today. Conditions will gradually
improve this weekend, but a moderate rip current risk remains.

* Showers will develop along western Puerto Rico this afternoon,
with a moderate change of experiencing urban and small stream
flooding. Avoid flood prone areas and roads.

* Across the Virgin Islands, passing showers are expected during the
day, but the rain should not be cause high impacts.


&&

.Short Term(Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 408 AM AST Fri Nov 14 2025

A variable weather pattern persisted across the local waters and
some eastern sections due to a perturbation at 700 mb, which
resulted in cloudiness and moisture moving across the islands.
Showers were more intense over the local waters, with light to
moderate rain affecting some eastern sections. According to Doppler
radar estimates, rainfall accumulations of nearly 1 inch were
observed over western Humacao, and less across the rest of the
areas. Minimum temperatures remained in the low 80s across the
coastal regions, while being fresher in the mountain areas.

For the rest of the morning and into the afternoon hours, the
islands will be dominated mainly by the perturbation moving across
the islands, which will continue to enhance cloudiness and produce
isolated to scattered showers. As the morning progresses, an area
with less moisture will filter in, as shown in the precipitation
water satellite-derived imagery. This drier area will allow the
islands to experience a decrease in cloudiness; however, it will
enhance diurnal heating, resulting in afternoon convection. Surface
winds will vary from the east to the southeast and will become
lighter to gentle due to the presence of a frontal boundary that is
sinking southward north of the islands. As a result, the focus of
the showers will be across the interior and northwestern sections of
Puerto Rico.

For early Saturday, the influence of the prefrontal trough is
expected to result in veering winds across the region, with winds
shifting from the northeast to the south throughout the day. At the
same time, the frontal band is expected to weaken, and patches of
moisture with precipitable water values between 1.5 and 1.7 inches,
which are near the climatological normals, will move across the
area. Given these conditions, the islands could experience a
variable weather pattern, with afternoon showers mainly occurring
across the interior. For Sunday, some instability is expected due to
the proximity of a mid- to upper-level trough, as shown by the 250
mb heights. This instability will result in colder temperatures at
500 mb, ranging from -6 to -8 degrees Celsius. Therefore,
thunderstorm activity cannot be ruled out with the strongest showers
across the interior and northeastern Puerto Rico, as well as nearby
offshore areas to the northeast of the island. The change in the
wind flow from Saturday into Sunday could lead to an increase in
heat index values between 100 and 105 degrees across portions of the
north-central and urban coastal areas of the island. If you are
exposed to the sun for long periods, remember to stay hydrated.

&&

.Long Term(Monday through Friday)...
Issued at 408 AM AST Fri Nov 14 2025

A surface high pressure centered over the eastern Atlantic will
drive the trade winds from the southeast Monday and Tuesday, and
then from the east on Wednesday. At the mid and upper levels, a
ridge will build over the western Caribbean Sea, bringing a
northwesterly dry flow over the region. At the low level, however,
the southeasterly flow will lift moisture from the Caribbean into
the islands. The global models suggest that this pattern will bring
some showers moving into the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico
at times, followed by afternoon convection in the afternoon across
western Puerto Rico. Since moisture is expected to be shallow in
nature, rain should only be locally strong, with a low chance of
experiencing urban and small stream flooding.

By the latter part of the week, surface high will migrate from the
southeastern portions of the United States into the western Atlantic
Ocean. The high will cause the winds to shift from the northeast,
while causing temperatures to cool down too. The air mass will be
drier too, so the weather will be generally fair, with only a few
showers reaching the area at times.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 408 AM AST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR conditions will persist across all TAF sites
during the period. From 14/17Z, brief MVFR conditions are expected
at TJBQ and TJPS due to SHRA and VCTS, resulting in lower CIGs and
reduced VIS. Winds will remain from the east at around 10 knots
through 14/15Z, then become light and shift to the E-NE by 15/06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 408 AM AST Fri Nov 14 2025

A northerly swell will gradually subside today, but still maintaining
conditions hazardous for small craft across the offshore Atlantic
waters. Moderate to locally fresh winds tonight will gradually weaken
today as a pre-frontal trough approaches the islands from the
north.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 408 AM AST Fri Nov 14 2025

A decaying long-period northwesterly swell will maintain
hazardous breaking waves and life-threatening rip currents along
the north- facing beaches in PR and St Thomas, St John early today.
Thus, the risk of rip currents will be high for today. Conditions
will continue to gradually improve by later today and tonight as
the wave energy dissipates, leaving a moderate risk of rip
currents for the weekend.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
425 AM AST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 402 AM AST Sat Nov 15 2025

* A pre-frontal trough will enhance light winds and moisture
across the islands, increasing the potential for afternoon
showers.

* An increase in showers and thunderstorms is expected tomorrow,
particularly across the interior and northern parts of Puerto
Rico, including the San Juan metropolitan area.

* For the U.S. Virgin Islands, a variable weather pattern will persist
today and tomorrow with periods of brief passing showers.

* There is a moderate risk of rip currents for the north-facing
coastal areas of the islands.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Monday)...
Issued at 402 AM AST Sat Nov 15 2025

Overnight, mainly calm weather conditions prevailed across Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. A few showers developed over the
waters but accumulations remained low. Minimum temperatures stayed
in the low 80s across urban and coastal areas, while the higher
terrain cooled into the upper 60s to mid-70s. Winds were generally
from the east, becoming variable at times, with speeds around 5 to
10 mph.

For the weekend, the latest model guidance indicates relative
humidity and precipitable water values near normal, along with a
weakening mid to upper level trough east of the area as a deep polar
trough over the western Atlantic shifts into the central Atlantic.
By today (Saturday), winds will become lighter or even variable,
allowing afternoon convection to develop and spread over a broader
portion of the islands. These weak steering winds will cause showers
and thunderstorms to move slowly, increasing their potential to
regenerate and produce widespread rainfall. As the deep-layer trough
moves closer to the region from Saturday into Sunday with its
greatest influence expected from Saturday evening through Sunday
evening it will cool the mid-levels to below-normal values,
enhancing instability and allowing deeper moisture to build through
the column. As a result, elevated flooding risk remains possible,
particularly for Puerto Rico from this afternoon onwards. By the end
of the weekend, a high-pressure system will position itself north of
the area, allowing winds to become more east-southeasterly.

On Monday, a low-pressure system will approach the region from the
southeast, allowing precipitable water values to remain near the
50th percentile, or near-normal levels for this time of year. We
encourage residents and visitors to continue monitoring the forecast
for potential impacts in their area.


&&

.Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)...
Issued at 402 AM AST Sat Nov 15 2025

During early Tuesday into early Wednesday, the islands will be
mainly influenced by a surface high pressure over the central
Atlantic, resulting in mostly east-southeasterly winds. Embedded
within this wind flow are patches of trapped tropical moisture
with precipitable water values between 1.4 and 1.6 inches.
Although this moisture will be present and concentrated near 850
MB, drier conditions are expected from 500 to 250 MB due to a
stable weather pattern. Global models suggest this setup will
bring some showers across the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern
Puerto Rico at times, followed by afternoon convection over
western Puerto Rico. Since the available moisture is expected to
remain shallow, rainfall should be only locally heavy, with a low
probability of urban or small-stream flooding.

A more stable and drier weather pattern is forecast from late
Thursday into Friday. A broad and strengthening surface high
pressure system exiting the eastern coast of the United States and
extending into the central Atlantic will establish a
northeasterly wind flow across the region. This shift in the wind
pattern will transport a drier and cooler air mass over the
islands, limiting shower development and improving overall weather
conditions. This shift will also support a cold-advection pattern
mainly across the local northern waters. According to the 925 MB
temperature fields, temperatures are expected to decrease across
the islands.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 402 AM AST Sat Nov 15 2025

Mainly VFR conditions prevailing across TAF sites during the
morning hours. After 15/16-17Z, intermittent periods of MVFR conds
are possible due to VCTS or TSRA across TJSJ, TJPS, and TJBQ
resulting in lower ceilings, brief higher winds, and reduced
visibilities. After 15/23Z, VFR conditions are expected to
prevail, but periods of VCSH cannot be ruled out at most TAF
sites. Expect variable winds mainly below 8 knots, becoming even
more calm tonight. &&

.MARINE...
Issued at 402 AM AST Sat Nov 15 2025

A frontal boundary and the associated pre-frontal trough located
north of the islands will continue to result in a light to gentle
easterly wind flow across the local islands. For today, surface
winds are expected to become more from the east-southeast later
today into Sunday as a weak surface high establishes north of the
region. Therefore, mariners can expect surface winds up to 10
knots with seas up to 5 feet and up to 4 feet along the coastal
waters in the Atlantic, and even lower across the Caribbean Sea.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 402 AM AST Sat Nov 15 2025

There is a moderate risk of rip currents across the northern, exposed
local beaches, and a low risk of rip currents across the southern
coastal areas. Although conditions are suitable for beachgoers,
visitors, and residents are urged to be aware of other coastal
hazards, including afternoon lightning in the western sections of
Puerto Rico.