Texas Fall 2025

[Gotwood]

New Euro weeklies just came out and it looks even better on this run

Looks like the same 500mb pattern that induced the gulf blizzard back in January. Not saying there will be one, but tends to deliver.

https://i.imgur.com/SLk2oTV.png

https://i.imgur.com/Y5inKJQ.png

As long as N tx gets in on the action this time lol.

[Ntxw]

Also given the bias of climo and longer run surface maps for these lengths on weeklies, this is very impressive. It was also last January cold blast that it had this widespread below normal for the US. (Maybe Feb one too but I don't recall the long range weeklies for that one.) Evidence continues to mount for big blast of cold next month.

[rwfromkansas]

Also given the bias of climo and longer run surface maps for these lengths on weeklies, this is very impressive. It was also last January cold blast that it had this widespread below normal for the US. (Maybe Feb one too but I don't recall the long range weeklies for that one.) Evidence continues to mount for big blast of cold next month.

https://i.imgur.com/XcvnhEk.png

What site has that?

[Stratton23]

As NTXW mentioned above, the 500 mb height configuration being shown by the euro weeklies and now the ensembles ( which are trending faster with the - EPO progression showing up just before thanksgiving, but the 500 mb height pattern being strongly advertised could favor a state wide winter storm if not multiple chances for them as we progress down the road, obviously far from a guarantee at all, but i love what im seeing, im going with a bold prediction that DFW breaks its snow drought this season and the deep south sees yet another historic winter storm

[Ntxw]

Also given the bias of climo and longer run surface maps for these lengths on weeklies, this is very impressive. It was also last January cold blast that it had this widespread below normal for the US. (Maybe Feb one too but I don't recall the long range weeklies for that one.) Evidence continues to mount for big blast of cold next month.

https://i.imgur.com/XcvnhEk.png

What site has that?

Public Euro site, below.

ECMWF Charts

[TropicalTundra]

As NTXW mentioned above, the 500 mb height configuration being shown by the euro weeklies and now the ensembles ( which are trending faster with the - EPO progression showing up just before thanksgiving, but the 500 mb height pattern being strongly advertised could favor a state wide winter storm if not multiple chances for them as we progress down the road, obviously far from a guarantee at all, but i love what im seeing, im going with a bold prediction that DFW breaks its snow drought this season and the deep south sees yet another historic winter storm

I don’t know the last time DFW got a good snow day, but here in Temple we haven’t had 1”+ of snow on the ground since Feb 15th 2021. Last winter we did get some lake effect, but barely any accumulated on the grass and melted in a few hours.

Hearing people being optimistic about this upcoming season is relieving though

[Ntxw]

GEFS long range is starting to have that 'look' with cold air building in W and C Canada dagger of -anoms, thanks to Alaskan ridge.

[Quixotic]

Having 1983 as a December analog is nuts.

[Brent]

Having 1983 as a December analog is nuts.

Yeah that was pretty eye opening to me too

All kinds of potential coming up it seems like

I know one thing east of here this current front was downright historic in many areas too. It makes you wonder when it shifts more favorable for us. Even extreme southern Florida is threatening record lows

At the very least it does look like a wetter stormier pattern before Thanksgiving. That'll be a good start if it happens

[Stratton23]

GEFS continues to get colder in our source region, it now also drops the EPO below -3 and stays negative for a long period, has WPO going below -2 as well, wouldn’t be surprised as we get closer to this pattern change to see some big time barney colors show up

[Ntxw]

GEFS continues to get colder in our source region, it now also drops the EPO below -3 and stays negative for a long period, has WPO going below -2 as well, wouldn’t be surprised as we get closer to this pattern change to see some big time barney colors show up

Very impressive this early! This past weekend's cold snap broke a lot of records in the south, was it a telling sign? I have to agree with your post yesterday there is a better than normal chance at a southern winter storm just around and after TG into December.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw i think it definitely could be a sign, heck even florida set new records for low temps in november with this front, but this time around we have a much more impressive blocking pattern to work with , this new euro weekly run looks really good if you want a winter storm in texas, trough hangs back west somewhat

[Wthrfan]

When is everyone going to migrate to the Texas Winter 25-26 thread? I know we are still roughly five weeks away from the winter solstice, but seems like we are heading that way sooner rather than later!

[South Texas Storms]

When is everyone going to migrate to the Texas Winter 25-26 thread? I know we are still roughly five weeks away from the winter solstice, but seems like we are heading that way sooner rather than later!

December 1. The winter thread is open for meteorological winter...December 1-February 28.

[TomballEd]

I'm not as excited about this weekend/next week for rainfall just based on a quick post work perusal of the various globals.

[Cpv17]

I'm not as excited about this weekend/next week for rainfall just based on a quick post work perusal of the various globals.

The CPC is pretty excited about it.

[Brent]

Lol

[mmmmsnouts]

Just saying this long before we get there, it’s all fun and games with winter weather until the grid can’t handle it. Don’t be rooting for full on chaos.

[Brent]

Just saying this long before we get there, it’s all fun and games with winter weather until the grid can’t handle it. Don’t be rooting for full on chaos.

Yeah to be completely honest for a minute February 2021 wasn't really fun after the first few hours

I'm not a huge fan of Arctic air anyway because since then up here every single snow event has underperformed because of it. Also the two best snowstorms since I've been here were closer to 30 degrees than zero

I mean people hyped February as some historic blizzard we'd never recover from and because it was 10 degrees it only amounted to a grand total of 2 inches like I was happy about last winter here almost solely due to the January storm but the whole thing left a bit of a bad taste just because it was so ridiculous the way everyone acted about it

[HockeyTx82]

Lol

https://i.ibb.co/yFDBtM0r/FB-IMG-1762903821302.jpg

So what date is that from or is that a forecast for later?

No context......