Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Texas Snowman]

Since it’s officially fall, winter called and said it’s got the next game on the calendar.

The Texas Winter 2025-2026 thread is now in the on-deck circle.

May it be unusually cold and snowy from the Red River to the Rio Grande!

[Stratton23]

Probably an up and down winter, with periods of - EPO blocking and texas gets really cold, and obviously you’re warm spells, QBO is east waited this season, so a - PNA looks to be a big player this winter, also could try to see a + TNH develop in the winter months, lots of ways this winter could play out

[Ralph's Weather]

I expect near normal winter temps interspersed with significant Arctic blasts. Overall dry but with wet spells when the PNA trends more neutral. Hopefully we can get a couple -EPO/=PNA pairings through the winter. 

[Stratton23]

QBO looks to be going easterly for the winter, that favors more high latitude blocking ( - EPO) for our upcoming winter but also an increased chance of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event occuring as its also a - QBO which favors a weakened polar vortex, think we may have a chance at seeing a colder than normal winter down here

[Wthrfan]

First lows in the 30s tonight for OKC. Here’s to hoping those of us who like a little winter weather will be happy in the coming months.

[Stratton23]

MJO rotation looks to be going into 8/1 and 2 in early december, with a - QBO and now the euro weeklies indicating a weaker than normal polar vortex, i wouldn’t be surprised to see winter get off to a fast start this season

[Stratton23]

Larry Cosgrove just released his winter outlook, and its a very interesting one

[vbhoutex]

Larry Cosgrove just released his winter outlook, and its a very interesting one

Larry is one of the best!! It is definitely interesting. I need to take a deeper look at it to be sure of the details.

[vbhoutex]

First lows in the 30s tonight for OKC. Here’s to hoping those of us who like a little winter weather will be happy in the coming months.

Here in Houston we had a 43f low 2 days ago. I don't mind, in fact like a little bit of Winter weather, so this is a good start, but we don't need too much of it here int the "tropics"!

[Iceresistance]

First lows in the 30s tonight for OKC. Here’s to hoping those of us who like a little winter weather will be happy in the coming months.

I fell to 32 two nights ago, that was my first freeze of winter

[Wthrfan]

Larry Cosgrove just released his winter outlook, and its a very interesting one

Just read through it. If he is right, mild through December, a cold January for most of Texas and Oklahoma and a cold February for Oklahoma extending into North Texas and continued colder than normal weather through March extending further south just about all the way to the Gulf.

Potential snowfall predictions for the season:

OKC-13"
Dallas-6"
Houston-3"

[Stratton23]

Euro seasonal run which came out on NOV 1 looks very cold for december as a whole based on its 500 mb height configuration , even has a cold January and February as well, interesting

[Stratton23]

New Euro weeklies are in, that pattern screams severe cold outbreak, alaskan block extends into the arctic circle, - NAO block combines with the - EPO ridge to create a cross polar flow connection down into the US, mean trough axis centered over the central plains , EPO and WPO both plummet on the Euro weeklies

[Sambucol2024]

New Euro weeklies are in, that pattern screams severe cold outbreak, alaskan block extends into the arctic circle, - NAO block combines with the - EPO ridge to create a cross polar flow connection down into the US, mean trough axis centered over the central plains , EPO and WPO both plummet on the Euro weeklies

What's the timeframe on this, and how does it affect the Houston area, if it does? Thanks

[Stratton23]

Sambucol2024 time frame is around thanksgiving- pretty much nearly all of december, this doesn’t look to be a short lived cold stretch, as for texas, its likely going to get much colder ( though not entirely sure exactly how cold yet) as for anything beyond just the cold, that i cant say, i just know its definitely going to get significantly colder around here in the coming weeks

[Sambucol2024]

Sambucol2024 time frame is around thanksgiving- pretty much nearly all of december, this doesn’t look to be a short lived cold stretch, as for texas, its likely going to get much colder ( though not entirely sure exactly how cold yet) as for anything beyond just the cold, that i cant say, i just know its definitely going to get significantly colder around here in the coming weeks

I've noticed some in weather are talking more about this. What they are saying is it's looking likely a change is indeed coming with a SSW event, causing the PV to drop down.

[Stratton23]

18z GFS is how i believe this pattern will unfold, we get the strong - EPO extension into the arctic circle, we get a SE ridge east of florida, trough hangs back and dives into the central plains, pretty cold run into texas, though nothing crazy, also hints at an active southern storm track, im pretty interested to see how this pattern plays out

[Stratton23]

Ensembles nearly go off the chart tanking the WPO, cant remember the last time i saw that

[Ntxw]

Expecting a fast start to winter once we flip in the last days of November. The ducks are lining up. Ensembles, weeklies, even on and off OPs, MJO, strat, you name it they are calling for it. I'm expecting 1985, 2013, 2022 type December.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw that would be great! Hope we can get an active sub tropical jet strwam to work with as well