2025 NATL hurricane season is here

[Teban54]

There were now as many Cat 5s this year in the Atlantic (Erin, Humberto, Melissa) as there were Cat 4/5s in WPAC as per JTWC (Ragasa, Neoguri, Halong), and more than Cat 4s in EPAC (Erick, Kiko).

[jconsor]

Very impressively backloaded hurricane season this year.  Here are some stats:

https://x.com/yconsor/status/1983980828268097557

[Category5Kaiju]

So, I know this WAAYYY out in time and is subject to change.....but for anybody who's curious, here's perhaps the earliest look at what 2026 is predicted to look like during its peak season (per CANSIPS).



The Atlantic as a whole looks to be much warmer than usual, especially the Canary Current. Now, I include this image as several other Storm2k members have briefly alluded to thinking about what next year could hold, but I personally think that this has relevance to the conversation of the 2025 season (and, for that matter, 2023 and 2024 as well). And that is, based on this CANSIPS prediction alone, the general theme of a very warm Atlantic seems to continue next year. And, this would mean that unfortunately, we're probably going to have to watch out for instances of RI and the potential threat of a storm or more that attain high-end Category 4 strength (or maybe even Category 5 strength...again.)

Of course, ENSO state and steering patterns are going to be a whole other story to talk about in the coming months, but based on temeprature profiles alone, unless the CANSIPS's forecast busts, it's likely that 2025 won't be the end of our recent active and destructive pattern of activity in the Atlantic.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/CIRA_CSU/status/1984016736098849123

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/WxNB_/status/1983999283071479902

[cycloneye]

We can say no more storms will form before the 30th.

[johngaltfla]

With the gulf water temps dropping below 75 now off Tampa (73.9), odds are the GoM season is over.

[jconsor]

In the tropics, yes. But there is a decent chance of development in the subtropics NE of the Lesser Antilles in 8-10 days.

We can say no more storms will form before the 30th.

https://i.imgur.com/K7PENNt.png

[DunedinDave]

Some may call it a good thing…others will call it disappointing…but the bottom line was the 2025 season was a dud. On to 2026.

[Category5Kaiju]

Some may call it a good thing…others will call it disappointing…but the bottom line was the 2025 season was a dud. On to 2026.

If we're talking specifically about US impacts...then yes, it was a dud. Which, of course, is great considering what happened in 2024 (let alone recent years like the early 2020s with major, destructive Gulf landfalls). A much needed break, as you may say.

However, if we're talking about activity-wise as a whole, 2025 was anything but a dud. Above-normal ACE of 132, as well as THREE Category 5 hurricanes! This is the second most Category 5 hurricanes in a single season after 2005's record-breaking 4! And, of course, we ended the season with Melissa, one of the most powerful Atlantic hurricanes of all time that has a non-zero chance of tying or even breaking Allen's windspeed record, as well as becoming the most intense landfalling storm since Labor Day in 1935, much to the unfortunate devastation of Jamaica and eastern Cuba.

I personally think 2025 was one of the most interesting seasons to track in recent times, and aside from Melissa, it was indeed nice to see many recurving, strong fish storms. But then again....it also will be remembered because of Melissa.

[FireRat]

Some may call it a good thing…others will call it disappointing…but the bottom line was the 2025 season was a dud. On to 2026.

If we're talking specifically about US impacts...then yes, it was a dud. Which, of course, is great considering what happened in 2024 (let alone recent years like the early 2020s with major, destructive Gulf landfalls). A much needed break, as you may say.

However, if we're talking about activity-wise as a whole, 2025 was anything but a dud. Above-normal ACE of 132, as well as THREE Category 5 hurricanes! This is the second most Category 5 hurricanes in a single season after 2005's record-breaking 4! And, of course, we ended the season with Melissa, one of the most powerful Atlantic hurricanes of all time that has a non-zero chance of tying or even breaking Allen's windspeed record, as well as becoming the most intense landfalling storm since Labor Day in 1935, much to the unfortunate devastation of Jamaica and eastern Cuba.

I personally think 2025 was one of the most interesting seasons to track in recent times, and aside from Melissa, it was indeed nice to see many recurving, strong fish storms. But then again....it also will be remembered because of Melissa.

100% Agreed. 2025 was a Monster season, with 3 Cat 5s and one of the worst landfalls of all time.

[tolakram]

Some may call it a good thing…others will call it disappointing…but the bottom line was the 2025 season was a dud. On to 2026.

Based on what metric or metrics?

[KirbyDude25]

Some may call it a good thing…others will call it disappointing…but the bottom line was the 2025 season was a dud. On to 2026.

Based on what metric or metrics?

I would assume that it's because there was only one US landfall (not counting Barry due to what was said about its impact on the Texas floods in its TCR). Never mind that this was only the second season in recorded history with more than 2 Category 5s, including one of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded in the basin that made (operationally record-tying) landfall at or near peak intensity and held near-perfect satellite presentation for days on end. Sure, land impacts outside of Melissa and (to a lesser degree) Chantal were not very high, but that should be what we want in a hurricane season. Even just going off the numbers, 13/5/4 with 132 ACE is near or above the climatological average of the past three decades in all metrics except for hurricanes. Personally, I wouldn't call this season a dud at all.