Texas Fall 2025

[Brent]

The Euro has snow here the day after Thanksgiving

Also the OKC temperature chart is a steady drop after today til the weekend

A lot of conflicting info on social media about whether it’s gonna get cold or not. Not too confident about it yet.

Thanksgiving is showing somewhat colder here but it's still not anything we haven't seen already so yeah I dunno yet.... I think it's more December for anything impressive

I did see a met in Wichita start to bring up that Thanksgiving may have to be discussed further but he still didn't expect it to be that anything that crazy

[Ntxw]

The Euro has snow here the day after Thanksgiving

Also the OKC temperature chart is a steady drop after today til the weekend

A lot of conflicting info on social media about whether it’s gonna get cold or not. Not too confident about it yet.

Frustrating looking social media . This is why I always try to do my own thing. Much of November was toast, not surprisingly. The main idea has been the Aleutian trough would attack the SPV, which it has done so and will see one of the weakest stratosphere starts to winter. The same Aleutian troughs have featured Aleutian lows that is about to kick off the wet pattern. None of this includes cold yet, next week once the Aleutian trough weakness goes equatorward (Pacific jet equatorward) we will see -EPO and -WPO connect, that is when Canada begins seeing very cold air build up. Pieces of it will come around or after Thanksgiving, not brutal but freezes type cold. Early December the pattern becomes favorable to dislodge more of that built up cold air.

If we see a +TNH set up in December that cold will linger and the month overall will see several cold blasts.

[Ntxw]

Wanted to note that it is also not something random or unforeseen. It is to be expected that the SPV would've weakened following a strong signal of Aleutian trough attacking it. Nearly almost every significant cold blast for us you can backpedal and look at Aleutian troughs setting it up weeks before. This was true in Feb 21, and Dec 22.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Wanted to note that it is also not something random or unforeseen. It is to be expected that the SPV would've weakened following a strong signal of Aleutian trough attacking it. Nearly almost every significant cold blast for us you can backpedal and look at Aleutian troughs setting it up weeks before. This was true in Feb 21, and Dec 22.

https://i.imgur.com/mh2tUq6.png

I dont remember the lead up to '21 blast much, but the Dec '22 i remember it quite well. I've never seen the community so locked into a massive polar front like that so far in advance. The ensembles were locked in more than 10 days out. It was incredible. I'm sure you can see it in our threads.
I left Freer, TX for Denver, CO the night it crossed into Texas. Bumped into it in Amarillo. One of the most memorable drives I've ever had. We had some crazy temp drops in in Denver. Hit -25 on the front at the airport. -13 for me west in the foothills.

[rwfromkansas]

Does anybody know if there are studies that show why models often lose the cold in the mid-range like they appear to be doing slightly today? It doesn't make sense, but they often lose it and gain it back closer.

[Ntxw]

Wanted to note that it is also not something random or unforeseen. It is to be expected that the SPV would've weakened following a strong signal of Aleutian trough attacking it. Nearly almost every significant cold blast for us you can backpedal and look at Aleutian troughs setting it up weeks before. This was true in Feb 21, and Dec 22.

https://i.imgur.com/mh2tUq6.png

I dont remember the lead up to '21 blast much, but the Dec '22 i remember it quite well. I've never seen the community so locked into a massive polar front like that so far in advance. The ensembles were locked in more than 10 days out. It was incredible. I'm sure you can see it in our threads.
I left Freer, TX for Denver, CO the night it crossed into Texas. Bumped into it in Amarillo. One of the most memorable drives I've ever had. We had some crazy temp drops in in Denver. Hit -25 on the front at the airport. -13 for me west in the foothills.

Around Christmas (2020) to the beginning of January 2021 very strong Okhotsk->Aleutian trough pattern dominated that led to the major SSW around Jan 5th that set stage for the Feb blast.

[snownado]

DFW already tied today's record high of 87*F as of 2pm.

Might even make another run at 90*F.

[Ntxw]

DFW already tied today's record high of 87*F as of 2pm.

Might even make another run at 90*F.

DFW had never made it officially to 90F in November (the only month ever on the records to not have a 90+ at the time) until 2017...will we do it again for the second time?

[snownado]

DFW already tied today's record high of 87*F as of 2pm.

Might even make another run at 90*F.

DFW had never made it officially to 90F in November (the only month ever on the records to not have a 90+ at the time) until 2017...will we do it again for the second time?

It's still 87*F as of 3pm, in part to dews in the mid 60s, so probably not today.

[HockeyTx82]

So we are planning a family gathering at Six Flags next Monday. Are we looking at a good shot of heavy rain or just some fall like weather?

[rwfromkansas]

The nice thing about this late in the season is that the temp peaks about 3 and then falls. So it's already dropped 2 degrees at my house from the peak of 88.

[Ntxw]

So we are planning a family gathering at Six Flags next Monday. Are we looking at a good shot of heavy rain or just some fall like weather?

Could be some heavy rain and 60s, kind of cool-ish relative to what it is now.

[Quixotic]

Wanted to note that it is also not something random or unforeseen. It is to be expected that the SPV would've weakened following a strong signal of Aleutian trough attacking it. Nearly almost every significant cold blast for us you can backpedal and look at Aleutian troughs setting it up weeks before. This was true in Feb 21, and Dec 22.

https://i.imgur.com/mh2tUq6.png

I dont remember the lead up to '21 blast much, but the Dec '22 i remember it quite well. I've never seen the community so locked into a massive polar front like that so far in advance. The ensembles were locked in more than 10 days out. It was incredible. I'm sure you can see it in our threads.
I left Freer, TX for Denver, CO the night it crossed into Texas. Bumped into it in Amarillo. One of the most memorable drives I've ever had. We had some crazy temp drops in in Denver. Hit -25 on the front at the airport. -13 for me west in the foothills.

Around Christmas (2020) to the beginning of January 2021 very strong Okhotsk->Aleutian trough pattern dominated that led to the major SSW around Jan 5th that set stage for the Feb blast.

https://i.imgur.com/e6Tq7qx.gif

09-10 and 13-14 saw both the Aleutian low and the -EPO/wpo. Those were brilliant and didn’t really start cooking until December. I mean, 09-10 was a moderate nino but I pay much less attention to enso than I did back then. It’s where the forcing ends up that matters. -EPO with an Aleutian low is good no matter the state of enso. The difference between the two years is the state of the AO/NAO. 13-14 it was positive so cold blasts would scoot off quickly but the delivery was consistent. The first blast was the exception as it was trapped by the SE ridge. That was the cobblestone ice event. 09-10 it was just locked in from December to March. Here’s hoping either event is what we get this winter.

[Brent]

It definitely looks active coming up at least up here regardless of the cold air

But you do see a gradual stepping down for sure showing up

OKC met just posted it's the hottest November on record so far

[Ntxw]

The Euro AI was (so far) one of the best models for next week. It consistently held the rainfall and stormy pattern while the other models were back and forth. It was also adamant about a trough passing by on Thanksgiving while the GFS was back and forth between heat and cool, looks like they are falling towards the Euro AIFS.

That said, it is now consistently showing a winter storm threat in our region nearing the opening days of December.

Thanksgiving itself looks like it will be on the cooler (relative to normal) side in the north. There's a frontal passage either the day before or day of.

[Brent]

The Euro AI was (so far) one of the best models for next week. It consistently held the rainfall and stormy pattern while the other models were back and forth. It was also adamant about a trough passing by on Thanksgiving while the GFS was back and forth between heat and cool, looks like they are falling towards the Euro AIFS.

That said, it is now consistently showing a winter storm threat in our region nearing the opening days of December.

It's very cold too has us probably single digits

20s down to the coast

December 3rd

[Ntxw]

GFS and CMC both are featuring a strong cold front on Thanksgiving, GFS even has winter mischief in some places. 10 days out!

[rwfromkansas]

I never quite know whether to post here or the winter one since it's starting to get active there, but will mostly do here since it's not Dec. 1.

Anyway, Gary Lezak from KC with the Lezak Recurring Cycle idea has an interesting video suggesting calling the SSW events more "stratospheric lowering" since he argues that changes really come from below. Not sure how accurate he is on this since I really know very little about these events except that they are rare and probably get hyped up too much.

But there is a comment on his article from somebody saying that there is still little Arctic air in Siberia (seems decently so to me) and the MJO is stuck in 7. He said research indicates SSWs often happen a few weeks after progressing through 7, so if that's true, hopefully it will move through.

[Ntxw]

I never quite know whether to post here or the winter one since it's starting to get active there, but will mostly do here since it's not Dec. 1.

Anyway, Gary Lezak from KC with the Lezak Recurring Cycle idea has an interesting video suggesting calling the SSW events more "stratospheric lowering" since he argues that changes really come from below. Not sure how accurate he is on this since I really know very little about these events except that they are rare and probably get hyped up too much.

But there is a comment on his article from somebody saying that there is still little Arctic air in Siberia and the MJO is stuck in 7. He said research indicates SSWs often happen a few weeks after progressing through 7, so if that's true, hopefully it will move through.

This is a bottom (troposphere)-up event. The Aleutian low pattern in the Pacific is what disturbed the perfect symmetry of the stratosphere PV. Think of it as a giant JENGA tower the polar PV, the bottom part got moved around and caused the upper parts to buckle. The SPV is more than just warming=cold. Sustained cold often requires a weakened SPV.

Not only that, now the Pacific jet is going equatorward, so all those Aleutian storms is diving south to US allowing cold to follow the path of least resistance with the jet, south.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Wondering how severe the threat will get for storms when we get closer in to these 2 fronts, the thanksgiving-ish one and the Dec 1/2 one. With those temperature gradients, I'm a little worried about a December 2015-ish event.