Texas Winter 2025-2026

[starsfan65]

:cheesy: HockeyTx82 yup winter is over, no chance we ever get cold at all!

It is not over

[Stratton23]

starsfan65 Oh i know haha, we were just joking, you’ll probably see all over social media when models stop showing the cold in the medium range, all the winter is cancelled posts come out, its pretty funny, happens every year lol

[starsfan65]

starsfan65 Oh i know haha, we were just joking, you’ll probably see all over social media when models stop showing the cold in the medium range, all the winter is cancelled posts come out, its pretty funny, happens every year lol

True it is pretty funny Lol

[Stratton23]

New Euro weekly is much colder for the entirety of december, this pattern isn’t going anywhere once it locks in

[vbhoutex]

Does anyone see signs that the PV is literally going to be spilling into the lower 48 regularly and give "one of the coldest and longest winters in a long time"? I saw something like this and at first glance it seemed legit, but I didn't dig deeply into it. Opinions(fact based) and yes I do know we can't predict the whole winter.

[Stratton23]

vbhoutex i did see a couple of people talk about this, I think its possible, its actually near record weak right now for november, and it looks like its going to stay weak through december at the very least

[Cpv17]

I think the 6z Euro AIFS just drank the entire bottle of whiskey cuz good lord almighty

[Stratton23]

CMC is very cold! GFS some wintry precipitation in central and north texas! end of CMC runs features TPV centering over the central US/ canadian border!

[Ntxw]

CMC is very cold! GFS some wintry precipitation in central and north texas! end of CMC runs features TPV centering over the central US/ canadian border!

With the Pacific jet diving south, storms for us.

[Sambucol2024]

CMC is very cold! GFS some wintry precipitation in central and north texas! end of CMC runs features TPV centering over the central US/ canadian border!

General idea of temps for SETX that show in that run, please?

[Stratton23]

Sambucol2024 highs in the upper 30’s to low 40’s, lows in the upper 20’s

[Stratton23]

Ntxw interesting that the AIFS has been consistent with a massive cold air outbreak into texas with possibly a winter storm setup, will be interesting to see if it remains this consistent and we start seeing this potential on other models

[Ntxw]

Ntxw interesting that the AIFS has been consistent with a massive cold air outbreak into texas with possibly a winter storm setup, will be interesting to see if it remains this consistent and we start seeing this potential on other models

Yeah, Im in wait and see but I am a fan of that model lately on how it has performed. The other ops have it on and off and they all have a big mass of cold built up over Canada. Logic says the pattern will become ripe to deliver. It's a good feeling we all have zoned in on when this might happen and the models gradually coming to the idea is a positive sign. This is another classic case of analogs and pattern recognition will lead the way.

[Ntxw]

OP Euro has a strong system Thanksgiving weekend.

[Stratton23]

12z Ensembles across the board are insane! Its been a long time since ive seen ensembles look that good, big big cold air outbreak coming with potentially an active southern jet….

[Cpv17]

12z Ensembles across the board are insane! Its been a long time since ive seen ensembles look that good, big big cold air outbreak coming with potentially an active southern jet….

Yep, very good model consensus today, definitely increases the confidence.

[Stratton23]

18z Euro AIFS is relentless

[Ntxw]

18z Euro AIFS is relentless

+TNH.

[wxman22]

Hmm I wonder if the Euro AI is locking into a winterstorm after Thanksgiving? Its still showing it in the 18z run fwiw. LOL

[Iceresistance]

All the Ensembles are pointing towards two cold blasts, the 2nd one to start December has me intrigued
Only posting GEFS here so I don't clog up chat with a single post


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