Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Stratton23]

yeah the 2nd blast has me intrigued because thats when a lobe of the TPV swings down and getting close to the central canadian/ US border, lots of cold , would like to see the southern jet a bit more active though

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Hello guys. Its been a while. Things look interesting so far for maybe real cold later. If the ssw comes to fruition, which typically takes a few weeks to reflect on the models and progression of the mjo.

[Stratton23]

AIFS just went even more insane on the 00z run , GFS/ Euro not seeing it, this is going to be a big test for the AIFS to see if its truely on to something

[TomballEd]

AIFS just went even more insane on the 00z run , GFS/ Euro not seeing it, this is going to be a big test for the AIFS to see if its truely on to something

Ice Storm. GFS has temps in the 70s locally while Euro AI has an ice storm in Houston. Worse to the NW where surface temps drop below freezing sooner. Be interesting to see whether the AI is correct,

[Stratton23]

TomballEd thats quite the difference lol, id have to lean AIFS just because we got a pretty weak PV now and the teleconnections support a massive dump of arctic air into the lower 48

[Stratton23]

12z GEPS is much colder, I font see how we dont get some sort of winter storm across the state with energy hanging back and cold air meeting up with the trough

[Sambucol2024]

12z GEPS is much colder, I font see how we dont get some sort of winter storm across the state with energy hanging back and cold air meeting up with the trough

IF a winter storm were to happen, would it include down to the upper Texas coast?

[Ntxw]

We are now looking at a coming wind reversal at 10hpa which by definition is a true major SSW. Very early to have one...2-3 weeks lag suggests late December and early January may extend the upcoming potential cold pattern.



PDO is also on the rise, what a weird series of events this early...a Nino want to be atmosphere transition in a Nina.

[Stratton23]

Sambucol2024 depends on a lot of things, timing of cold air, is it cold enough? And is their any energy hanging back out west like west texas or new mexico, typically thats what we want to see if we want winter weather down here, and this afternoons ensemble runs are starting to get a little more noisy now

[Cpv17]

We are now looking at a coming wind reversal at 10hpa which by definition is a true SSW. Very early to have one...2-3 weeks lag suggests late December and early January may extend the upcoming potential cold pattern.

https://i.imgur.com/HKTVNBE.png

PDO is also on the rise, what a weird series of events this early...a Nino want to be atmosphere transition in a Nina.

I’ve been seeing a few people on social media post about another SSW happening mid to late December.

[Sambucol2024]

In my humble opinion, it seems the models are staying cold and getting colder. Perhaps a trend? Either way, it looks like the cold is coming.

[Ntxw]

We are now looking at a coming wind reversal at 10hpa which by definition is a true SSW. Very early to have one...2-3 weeks lag suggests late December and early January may extend the upcoming potential cold pattern.

https://i.imgur.com/HKTVNBE.png

PDO is also on the rise, what a weird series of events this early...a Nino want to be atmosphere transition in a Nina.

I’ve been seeing a few people on social media post about another SSW happening mid to late December.

The reversal occurs soon. Then the vortex is just going to be weak, extension of what's already happening. It will be hard to get zonal flow in December and January more than likely.

[Ntxw]

[Stratton23]

Quite an uptick in ensemble members suggesting an active STJ across texas as the cold air dives south

[Cpv17]

Looks like the SE ridge is backing off now compared to yesterday just based off the latest CPC forecast.

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 no surprise, with this kind of a pattern, waves of cold air buildint up in canada, that SE ridge is going to get crushed, though would like it to remain somewhat as it provides resistance and a more favorable setup for overrunning events here in texas

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 no surprise, with this kind of a pattern, waves of cold air buildint up in canada, that SE ridge is going to get crushed, though would like it to remain somewhat as it provides resistance and a more favorable setup for overrunning events here in texas

Yeah, it’s definitely looking better for folks on the EC today compared to yesterday.

[Brandon8181]

Lots of click bait starting to come up on social media. Nonetheless, it looks like atleast a pattern change is coming. Maybe we can get out of these silly 80's.

[HockeyTx82]

So it's all going east now? What the heck.....

It's too early in the year for this kind of nonsense.

I hope everyone has had their health check up lately, sounds like we're going to need to be in good shape for this winter of model swings.

[Stratton23]

No its not all going east, thanksgiving day front might be more east based, but we are still getting chilly in texas , the 2nd front in early december is a true siberian/ arctic front, the core of that cold looks to be focused over the western and central us, we are definitely going to get the arctic express train into texas