2026 ENSO Updates

[cycloneye]

Ok folks, is early but decided to make the 2026 ENSO Updates thread as members will be interested to know if the forecast for El Niño will come and how strong it may be if it forms.

PDO data

2025 and past years ENSO Updates

ONI data

































 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1987866201880715454

[cycloneye]

CPC 11/10/25 weekly update has NIño 3.4 at -0.7C.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

From Kingarabian at the 2025 thread.

Looks like a strong WWB is setting up over the MC over the next 2 weeks. Should reinforce the WPAC warm pull and we should see a strong downwelling KW setup. Still a long way to go though and nothing is certain.

[Category5Kaiju]

Interesting discussions on there.

Was there ever a time in recorded history when a strong or, at least, significant El Niño came merely 3 years after another strong event? My assumption would be that a warm neutral or weak El Niño may be more likely, but I could easily be wrong.

[Teban54]

Interesting discussions on there.

Was there ever a time in recorded history when a strong or, at least, significant El Niño came merely 3 years after another strong event? My assumption would be that a warm neutral or weak El Niño may be more likely, but I could easily be wrong.

Looking at historical ONI values alone, and mostly looking at ONI above 1.0:

• 1963-1965 (2 years): ONI peaked at 1.4 in OND 1963, then 2.0 in SON and OND 1965.
• 1969-1972 (3 years): Both 1968-69 and 1969-70 were El Ninos with ONI peaking at 1.1 and 0.9 respectively. 3 years later, 1972 was a super Nino at 2.1 in OND and NDJ.
• 1991-1994 (3 years): ONI peaked at 1.7 in DJF 1992, then 1.1 in NDJ 1994.
• 1994-1997 (3 years): ONI peaked at 1.1 in NDJ 1994, then 2.4 in OND and NDJ 1997.

[cycloneye]

[jconsor]

Nice charts, cycloneye. Could you please post links for them? Thanks.

https://i.imgur.com/7wKC4zw.jpeg

https://i.imgur.com/7IPZ4zd.jpeg

[cycloneye]

Nice charts, cycloneye. Could you please post links for them? Thanks.

https://i.imgur.com/7wKC4zw.jpeg

https://i.imgur.com/7IPZ4zd.jpeg

Dont have the links as they were posted at the X chat by Eric Webb without them.

[WeatherBoy2000]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1988367081512022310



TC Activity in 1982 was about as you'd expect in the Northern Hemisphere during a super el nino, very active epac/wpac, and very inactive Atlantic. It's still way too far out to anticipate a strong/super El Niño, but things seem to be setting up well for a push towards +enso in 2026.

[cycloneye]

CPC on the november update has La Niña not lasting too long as Neutral conditions are favored to be present between January and March 2026. El niño is up to 40% by JAS.

 https://x.com/NWSCPC/status/1988970114096443779



https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

[Kingarabian]

30 day SOI finally resembles La Nina in the atmosphere.

[dexterlabio]

Based on those CDAS Niño indices, no wonder WPAC has been dead (Niño 4 and Niño 3 being very negative)

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/jnmet/status/1989347424071295468

[Kingarabian]

Waters east of Japan are now just slightly above average. NW of Hawaii those waters remain well above average. Need those to cool by January and maybe then we can finally see a +PDO.

[cycloneye]

Eric Webb says La Niña should be destroyed in 3 months.

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1991124388964622702

[Yellow Evan]

Fairly rare for a -ENSO event to decay this early, although not unheard of (see 1956, 1981, 1989, and 2001). Combined with the strong -IOD, opens the door for a classical evolving strong El Nino event that we haven't truly seen in a decade. PDO/PMM cooperation remains a potential obstacle, however.

[weeniepatrol]

Fairly rare for a -ENSO event to decay this early, although not unheard of (see 1956, 1981, 1989, and 2001). Combined with the strong -IOD, opens the door for a classical evolving strong El Nino event that we haven't truly seen in a decade. PDO/PMM cooperation remains a potential obstacle, however.

It’s also rare for a potential big boy El Niño so soon after an ONI >1.5 event (2023-4). However, the typical maturing la Niña self-termination processes are initiating. Warm pool is becoming robust in the WPAC - where kelvin waves originate. Models currently support a fairly long wave WWB over the kelvin wave generation area as the MJO propagates slowly through the pacific at fairly high amplitude. And as you said, the -IOD lends even more credence to this outcome.

Cannot lock anything in yet. It is still very early, and much depends on Spring variability. But I don’t think it’s controversial to state that the cards are becoming stacked in favor of some kind of warm event in 2026.

[Category5Kaiju]

I like this website that tracks ENSO years:

https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

At least since 1950, there were 3 cases in which an El Nino occurred three years after a strong or very strong El Nino occurred: 1968 (moderate El Nino) after 1965 (strong El Nino), 1994 (moderate El Nino) after 1991 (strong El Nino), and 2018 (weak El Nino) after 2015 (very strong El Nino). 1966 and 1967 were neutral years, as were 1992 and 1993, while 2016 and 2017 were weak La Nina years.

For the other strong or very strong El Nino events during these past 75 years (I count 5 such events), it oftentimes took at least 4 or 5 years before another El Nino happened.

What I get out of this is that (at least if we're looking at ENSO patterns since 1950), assuming we get an El Nino in 2026 in the first place, it would likely be at most a weak or moderate event. Of course, exceptions and historic patterns being bucked can happen, and this doesn't guarantee that a strong or stronger event cannot happen. However, if something like this were to occur, then it would certainly be a first in this particular context.

2024 is operationally a cool neutral year, and it's looking like 2025 will be as well (unless the current -ENSO regime is able to persist a bit longer). Unless we get some weird multi-year neutral limbo (like 1959-1962), I do support the idea that an El Nino is quite likely next year. However, if for whatever reason some intriguing fail mode occurs and El Nino doesn't happen, then I'd bet that we'll likely see a true El Nino in 2027.

[Dean_175]

It appears ENSO has a greater than even chance of switching over. I can't yet speculate on the intensity. Whether we get a strong classical event depends a lot on PMM interference, oceanic heat content in January/February and if there is a a strong MJO induced WWB event in early spring like in 2015 and 1997. Those years were both during positive PDO though.

[cycloneye]

Here is the weekly CPC update of 11/24/25 that has niño 3.4 down to -0.8C. The important one is the monthly when they update the percents of La Niña, of Neutral and El Niño in the next few months, and the december one will be on 12/11/25.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf