Texas Winter 2025-2026

[HockeyTx82]

Speaking of cold weather, where's our usual cold loving meteorologist wxman57?

Also trying to remember the last time I've seen a few of the other folks post that have been on here for a long time.

Hope everyone's doing okay.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I only post when it starts getting cold. I’m coming out of my hibernation slumber. Heat is for the birds!

[gpsnowman]

Excellent. Thundersleet Dreams is back. Just need Porta, 57, orangeblood, and others back for winter.

[Ralph's Weather]

I am getting into winter mode myself. Looks like an interesting start for sure and hopefully an interesting winter as a whole.

[Golfisnoteasy75]

I am getting into winter mode myself. Looks like an interesting start for sure and hopefully an interesting winter as a whole.

Im hopeful the SSW event materializes to perhaps give us a better chance at cold stormy weather.

[Stratton23]

GEPS is much colder, even some deep purple- barney colors starting to show up on the run, that gets my attention when an ensemble starts to show that on a mean average

[Stratton23]

CMC may have the best handle on this upper air pattern involving the SPV, already at the end of its run it has our 2nd trough digging oit west with a 1050MB high dropping. out of western canada, arctic cold looming in western and north central US

[wxman22]

The Euro AI is still being pretty consistent showing a winter storm around December 1st. We’ll see…

[Cpv17]

I think we’re just gonna have to be patient with these models. They more than likely don’t have a good handle on the potential of the cold at the moment.

[Stratton23]

Yup, ensembles are still the way to go in this range, i have to say im becoming more impressed or my eyebrow is becoming raised as the GEFS/ GEPS have some pretty impressive cold centered over the western and central US for an ensemble mean, i also love seeing the trend in ensembles for some energy undercutting the EPO ridge and hanging out back west albeit weak, SE ridge tries to fight on models, but clearly the ensembles have that dam bursting cold air overwhelming the deep south look

[TomballEd]

The Euro AI is still being pretty consistent showing a winter storm around December 1st. We’ll see…

It lost the Houston ice storm. There was a run with 3 to 4 tenths with subfreezing surface temps but SW winds at 850 mb. Maybe it comes back. I know long range physics models struggle with shallow cold air but I'd think AI trained off of prior events would do better.

I drove from Kamay (near SPS) to Ft Worth in snow. I had no issues for whatever reason but I saw people spinning out on the highway.

I was also in Kamay in February 2003, freezing drizzle and wind is no fun. So I accept less winter weather.

[Stratton23]

12z ensembles…. man you dont see a pattern that favorable for a dam bursting event , cold air is just loaded, SE ridge tries to fight, but its going to get crushed, also a stronger signal for perhaps a winter storm or two in texas, all in all things are looking a lot more interesting today

[Cpv17]

You got Jonah now saying there won’t be an SSW, but others are saying there will be lol whatever, I think it’s gonna get cold either way.

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 it might not even matter, the PV is severely weakened and thats enough for sustainable widespread cold, and it looks like its going to stay that way through december and early january, Euro weeklies keep - EPO in place for the entirety of december, I cant remember the last time we have had a more favorable setup than what we are currently seeing

[HockeyTx82]

Cpv17 it might not even matter, the PV is severely weakened and thats enough for sustainable widespread cold, and it looks like its going to stay that way through december and early january, Euro weeklies keep - EPO in place for the entirety of december, I cant remember the last time we have had a more favorable setup than what we are currently seeing

Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=30TkClWvT5k

[Iceresistance]

You got Jonah now saying there won’t be an SSW, but others are saying there will be lol whatever, I think it’s gonna get cold either way.

I'm sure there is going to be one, this is looking good for an SSW to be around the end of November

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9uvA.png

[Stratton23]

GFS trended toward the CMC, nothing crazy, but arctic air is building and heading south after thanksgiving, as usual the GFS tries to have the SE ridge pit up a fight to hold the cold air back, but i think we are going to be seeing some fun model runs in the days ahead

[wxman22]

I think we’re just gonna have to be patient with these models. They more than likely don’t have a good handle on the potential of the cold at the moment.

Yep, the models do this every year...

[wxman22]

[Cpv17]

GFS trended toward the CMC, nothing crazy, but arctic air is building and heading south after thanksgiving, as usual the GFS tries to have the SE ridge pit up a fight to hold the cold air back, but i think we are going to be seeing some fun model runs in the days ahead

That’s some decent snow cover on the 18z GFS over the plains and Rockies.