Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Ntxw]

Most of the guidance also has a +TNH pattern with TPV lobe over Canada (sub 500dm). That should be an efficient cold sourcing pattern with ridging over the top on the Pacific side. It's not inconceivable to believe we will get another cold shot mid month.

If we get folding high pressure into the western trough, plains is the bet.

[Iceresistance]

Most of the guidance also has a +TNH pattern with TPV lobe over Canada (sub 500dm). That should be an efficient cold sourcing pattern with ridging over the top on the Pacific side. It's not inconceivable to believe we will get another cold shot mid month.

If we get folding high pressure into the western trough, plains is the bet.

The Euro AI has moisture at sub 20s for me, so imagine the snowfall ratios

[HockeyTx82]

Most of the guidance also has a +TNH pattern with TPV lobe over Canada (sub 500dm). That should be an efficient cold sourcing pattern with ridging over the top on the Pacific side. It's not inconceivable to believe we will get another cold shot mid month.

If we get folding high pressure into the western trough, plains is the bet.

The Euro AI has moisture at sub 20s for me, so imagine the snowfall ratios

How does the whole column look because that could be a major ice storm if it's warm nose up above.

[Ntxw]

Most of the guidance also has a +TNH pattern with TPV lobe over Canada (sub 500dm). That should be an efficient cold sourcing pattern with ridging over the top on the Pacific side. It's not inconceivable to believe we will get another cold shot mid month.

If we get folding high pressure into the western trough, plains is the bet.

The Euro AI has moisture at sub 20s for me, so imagine the snowfall ratios

How does the whole column look because that could be a major ice storm if it's warm nose up above.

Way too soon. If I had to say on maps it would be something like early Dec 2013 storm.

[Iceresistance]

Good lord CMC

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9gfB.png

[Stratton23]

Crazy days ahead! Newest euro weeklie run just came out, - EPO stays in place the entire month of december , cant remember the last time ive seen a - EPO stay in place that long

[Iceresistance]

Euro just jumped towards a cold blast, could be a one-off or caved

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9gYI.gif

[wxman22]

12Z Euro

[Iceresistance]

That's the craziest -EPO signature I've seen on the GFS


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9g1s.png

[Golfisnoteasy75]

If there is going to be a winterstorm, models will work their selves out as the days go on. Overrunning are one of my favorite events

[Iceresistance]

Goodness gracious
 https://twitter.com/weathercast3/status/1991938482131046702

[Sambucol2024]

Goodness gracious
https://twitter.com/weathercast3/status/1991938482131046702?s=46

IF that verifies, I’m wondering would that rival February 2021.

[Stratton23]

Not likely, this is 2 months earlier compared to the February 2021 event, those kind of temperatures are going to be hard to ever beat again, that being said this still has the potential to be a major cold snap with some really cold temperatures and possibly some precipitation involved , lots to watch for sure though

[wxman22]

The 0z Euro shows a major ice storm for NW Texas and points north The GFS also shows it too.

[Ntxw]

12z GFS already looks more potent (cold and system) to start December than last night's run.

If you're concerned about snow cover, everything looks well covered from Canada to central plains prior to the cold coming down.

[Ntxw]

This to me is a displacement of cold flushed from the source region straight down into the plains.

[wxman22]

The 12Z GFS, arctic air straight down into the plains.

[Ntxw]

The 12Z GFS, arctic air straight down into the plains.

https://i.ibb.co/1Ds9pyQ/gfs-T2ma-us-41.png

Considering it's a 10+ day forecast (imagine that), that it's been caving to the Euro AIFS is telling. Very cold start to December relative to normal for our region.

[Stratton23]

ICON has a big 1051 MB high moving out of western canada at the end of its run, bitter cold air entering the northern US

[Iceresistance]

AI Euro seems to have lost the idea of an Arctic blast, but it could be mid-range shenanigans