Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Golfisnoteasy75]

One model to watch this week is the ICON, it has done pretty well with seeing the true nature of arctic air-masses compared to the global models in the past few years, 12z run had a 1051 MB arctic high dropping into the central plains

ICON seemed to do very well particularly last year. Seemed liked if I remember right other models were locking on to something and ICON went a different direction and ICON was the winner.

Icon is a good model. Each model has their strengths and weaknesses. Euro is still the best imo, but it used to be really really good before the few upgrades it underwent

[Ntxw]

12z GFS looks like a classic/textbook set up for a southern plains winter storm. Strong SW shortwave, TPV over Hudson Bay, broad neutral- PNA, phasing.

[Ntxw]

Also with the western trough set up now in the 7 day frame it's getting important to start locking that in. Though until the energy is actually present there, shifts of position and ejection makes big differences.

The all too familiar backwards "S" pattern. December 2013.

[wxman22]

The 12Z GFS and ICON both show a winterstorm for NW Texas. The 0z Euro also shows it.

[Stratton23]

Would loce to see that energy dig more SW, once models truely get a grasp of how cold this airmass is, with the decent agreement on a shortwave at 7 days, their could be some really fun runs ahead lol

[Ntxw]

This start to December isn’t likely to be the only big one to watch. +TNH and favorable tropics looks to load cold up in the source region. The next upward ridge could displace a lot more mid to late month once the tnh is settled.

[Stratton23]

And now Larry Cosgrove just came out and said no arctic blast late next week is reaching down here because of the SE ridge and that december looks mostly mild lol, good grief

[wxman22]

12Z Euro AI has the winterstorm for most of North and NW Texas all the way down into the Hill Country.

[Harp.1]

12Z Euro AI has the winterstorm all the way down into the Hill Country.

Can you post? Thanks

[Cpv17]

And now Larry Cosgrove just came out and said no arctic blast late next week is reaching down here because of the SE ridge and that december looks mostly mild lol, good grief

I’m not even sure the models have a good grip on the SE ridge yet.

[Ntxw]

And now Larry Cosgrove just came out and said no arctic blast late next week is reaching down here because of the SE ridge and that december looks mostly mild lol, good grief

There is a camp of folks who rely on Nina/-PDO/-PNA climo that SE ridge tends to show up with. This is a fair thought as a forecaster and looking at the broader global pattern.

The only reason I haven't bought into the typical Nina/-PNA climo is because we have not seen a dominant flat Aleutian ridge like a normal nina should, in fact quite opposite. I've heard chatter the Nina will terminate quickly this winter and these transition seasons tend to throw a wrench into the mix, I do agree with that.

[Cpv17]

Pretty discouraging trends today on the models.

[Stratton23]

Ironically the 18z GFS trended better if you want a winter storm in the deep south, at least with the trough, a surface low is forced to develop off of brownsville in response to a digging shortwave trough out in west texas, not cold enough on this run for winter weather, but definitely a good step in the right direction

[Sambucol2024]

Pretty discouraging trends today on the models.

Isn’t this the norm when it comes to cold weather with models before they lock in?

[Stratton23]

Yes, we still are roughly 10-11 days out from this, models always lose the cold air in this range, once you start getting within 5-6 days they should begin to see it again, Ill never get why they do this lol, their still are some positive trends to take away from today so far despite models “ losing the cold”

[rwfromkansas]

Cue a mocking Evan Andrews post.

[HockeyTx82]

Cue a mocking Evan Andrews post.

At least he's retired so we don't have to hear it on the TV.

[Stratton23]

GEFS looks better than the GFS

[Stratton23]

00z ICON is way colder compared to the 12z run, looks like a better chance for a winter storm on this run would it be able to go out more than 180 hours, trough axis digs out west

[Stratton23]

Euro is getting awfully close to showing a multiday overunning precipitation event while the cold air is in place ( though not cold enough for frozen precip this run over central and se texas) it has a far more suppressed SE ridge