WPAC: 33W - Tropical Depression

[Hayabusa]

92W INVEST 251122 1800 6.0N 134.0E WPAC 15 0

The future storm is now finally an invest

[Hayabusa]

Models agree on a TD-TS before landfall and then significantly intensifying while moving slowly over the South China Sea

[Hayabusa]

12z deepmind, note on the possible 2nd TC the ensemble is showing coming early December, Euro AI also agrees with the formation on the 2nd TC too.

[Hayabusa]

Medium

ABPW10 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/231500Z-240600ZNOV2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.7N
132.1E, APPROXIMATELY 171 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) AS WELL AS A 230928Z F17 SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE
PASS DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION AROUND A RELATIVELY BROAD CIRCULATION
WITH AREAS OF FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ASSESSED AS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-29C). GLOBAL
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION 92W WILL SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS IT TRANSITS OVER THE
PHILIPPINES WITH MUCH MORE PROMINENT DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED MEDIUM AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1)//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

12z deepmind

[Hayabusa]

JMA EDA 18Z gave it a CI 1.0, might upgrade to TD now or even a TC warning TD.

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 231800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 231800.
WARNING VALID 241800.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 09.4N 128.6E SEA EAST OF MINDANAO MOVING WNW 10 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[Hayabusa]

TD a
Issued at 2025/11/24 01:15 UTC
Analysis at 11/24 00 UTC
Grade TD
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N9°30′ (9.5°)
E128°10′ (128.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Forecast for 11/24 12 UTC
Grade TD
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°10′ (10.2°)
E125°50′ (125.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Radius of probability circle 100 km (55 NM)
Forecast for 11/25 00 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°20′ (11.3°)
E123°35′ (123.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 130 km (70 NM)
Forecast for 11/26 00 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°25′ (11.4°)
E118°05′ (118.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Forecast for 11/27 00 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°50′ (11.8°)
E114°20′ (114.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Forecast for 11/28 00 UTC
Grade STS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°55′ (10.9°)
E112°25′ (112.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW Slow
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 330 km (180 NM)
Forecast for 11/29 00 UTC
Grade STS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°10′ (10.2°)
E111°00′ (111.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW Slow
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 440 km (240 NM)

[Hayabusa]

TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 240600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.9N 126.8E TO 11.1N 121.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 240600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.9N 126.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 132.1E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 126.7E, APPROXIMATELY 128 NM NORTHEAST OF
DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS A 240126Z
METOP C 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION AROUND A
CIRCULATION WITH A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LLCC AND AREAS OF FORMATIVE
BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE CIRCULATION. A 240129Z ASCAT
PASS REVEALS A WELL CONSOLIDATED CIRCULATION WITH 20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER AS WELL AS 25 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED 140 NM NORTH OF THE
PERCEIVED CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ASSESSED AS FAVORABLE
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION 92W WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TRANSITS OVER THE PHILIPPINES WITH INTENSIFICATION
IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
250600Z.
//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

JTWC upgrades to TD 33W.

WP, 33, 2025112418, , BEST, 0, 098N, 1237E, 25, 1000, XX, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1004, 185, 60, 0, 0, W, 0, X, 290, 14, THIRTYTHR, S

[Hayabusa]