Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Stratton23]

I just have a suspicion we will see model guidance trend toward a big ice storm over a large part of the state , trough digging out west, plenty of lift, cold air pressing south, SE ridge providing some resistance to create a battle zone, thats just what i think is going to happen, i could be wrong though for sure

[wxman22]

18Z GFS

[Ralph's Weather]

Pretty classic winter storm threat shaping up for next week. Lots of details to iron out over the next week.

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Pretty classic winter storm threat shaping up for next week. Lots of details to iron out over the next week.

Looks good for some. Hoping that it shifts further south and east if it can happen

[Stratton23]

Plenty of time for shifts to occur, one thing to note, since models tend to underestimate the speed and density ( how cold) of arctic air, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some SW or south trends with the trough, a more colder airmass would tend to suppress the storm track more south

[wxman22]

Interesting that most of the 18z GEFS ensemble members now show a winterstorm in the state.

[Gotwood]

I noticed the weather channel app has freezing rain for my area Dec 1st into the 2nd. Will be interesting to watch.

[wxman22]

[Cpv17]

https://i.ibb.co/C372pCkZ/610wtemp-new.gif

Crazy how the CPC still has SE TX above normal for the next two weeks.

[wxman22]

0Z ICON shows an ice storm for north Texas.

[Ntxw]

0Z ICON shows an ice storm for north Texas.

https://i.ibb.co/0Rx0pRpr/Screenshot-2025-11-24-at-21-41-29-Models-ICON-Pivotal-Weather.png
https://i.ibb.co/k2Q2jnqj/Screenshot-2025-11-24-at-21-41-37-Models-ICON-Pivotal-Weather.png

Parent ULL is coming out of NM by the end of the run. Not sure it will work out this way but the many potential solutions..

[wxman22]

0z CMC 0z GFS

The models may be finally converging on a storm...

[Cpv17]

0z GFS 0z CMC

The models may be finally converging on a storm...

https://i.ibb.co/4GFWRwH/gfs-msflp-pcpn-frzn-scus-30.png

https://i.ibb.co/kgHjHzrk/gems-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-27.png

And this is why you moved up there lol

[Gotwood]

0z CMC 0z GFS

The models may be finally converging on a storm...


https://i.ibb.co/dwkxDLgT/gsem-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-28.png
https://i.ibb.co/N6qFPmsZ/gedm-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-29.png
https://i.ibb.co/4GFWRwH/gfs-msflp-pcpn-frzn-scus-30.png

Not a fan of ice but at this point I’ll take anything winter weather related.

[Golfisnoteasy75]

0z CMC 0z GFS

The models may be finally converging on a storm...


https://i.ibb.co/dwkxDLgT/gsem-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-28.png
https://i.ibb.co/N6qFPmsZ/gedm-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-29.png
https://i.ibb.co/4GFWRwH/gfs-msflp-pcpn-frzn-scus-30.png

Not a fan of ice but at this point I’ll take anything winter weather related.

I would also. All about timing cold and moisture, which are tougher in our area.

[Golfisnoteasy75]

0Z ICON shows an ice storm for north Texas.

https://i.ibb.co/0Rx0pRpr/Screenshot-2025-11-24-at-21-41-29-Models-ICON-Pivotal-Weather.png
https://i.ibb.co/k2Q2jnqj/Screenshot-2025-11-24-at-21-41-37-Models-ICON-Pivotal-Weather.png

Parent ULL is coming out of NM by the end of the run. Not sure it will work out this way but the many potential solutions..

Quick question. Since this SSW event looks reflective, will the big cold hit much later, if at all here? Just curious

[Stratton23]

Not that it means much, but thats some big cold building in canada at the end of the GFS run with the TPV gettinf ready to unload, interesting to see the WPO stays negative for all of december, we may not see long warm ups this month, but i could be wrong

[Ntxw]

0Z ICON shows an ice storm for north Texas.

https://i.ibb.co/0Rx0pRpr/Screenshot-2025-11-24-at-21-41-29-Models-ICON-Pivotal-Weather.png
https://i.ibb.co/k2Q2jnqj/Screenshot-2025-11-24-at-21-41-37-Models-ICON-Pivotal-Weather.png

Parent ULL is coming out of NM by the end of the run. Not sure it will work out this way but the many potential solutions..

Quick question. Since this SSW event looks reflective, will the big cold hit much later, if at all here? Just curious

This is the first time I've heard that term, what is reflective? I don't expect a -AO type month as the analog set never suggested such. Everything is mostly Pacific driven this season more than likely. What the weakened vortex is doing, so far has been reactive to the Pacific.

[Cpv17]

Parent ULL is coming out of NM by the end of the run. Not sure it will work out this way but the many potential solutions..

Quick question. Since this SSW event looks reflective, will the big cold hit much later, if at all here? Just curious

This is the first time I've heard that term, what is reflective? I don't expect a -AO type month as the analog set never suggested such. Everything is mostly Pacific driven this season more than likely. What the weakened vortex is doing, so far has been reactive to the Pacific.

I’ve also heard that term “reflective” for the first time today. A bunch of people on X were calling it that.

[Stratton23]

Lol the GDPS parallel model ( basically the CMC 2.0) has 2 winter storms, with a 2nd system digging way down into mexico behind our parent system