Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Ntxw]

In a broader sense, I am starting to mistrust the guidance on dumping cold in the west. It happened not long ago with the earlier cold, and now long range keeps dwindling (west) and moving it eastward once in the medium range. This week's cold air for Turkey day did the same thing.

Some things to start thinking about for next week when we look at big troughs going west.

[Cpv17]

In a broader sense, I am starting to mistrust the guidance on dumping cold in the west. It happened not long ago with the earlier cold, and now long range keeps dwindling (west) and moving it eastward once in the medium range. This week's cold air for Turkey day did the same thing.

Some things to start thinking about for next week when we look at big troughs going west.

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1993 ... 82993?s=46

Yep.

[Stratton23]

Just wait, i bet somehow this cold air is going to miss us, i can smell the disappointment coming from a mile away

[Ntxw]

Just wait, i bet somehow this cold air is going to miss us, i can smell the disappointment coming from a mile away

I don't think this will happen (opinion) but the idea of a strong SE ridge hasn't panned out either. Keeps getting it wrong in the long range.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw hopefully not, but if they models keep trending the ridge out west stronger, that would shove most of the cold east of us, hopefully not though

[wxman22]

We’re in the limbo period that always seems to happen when we get into the medium range. Excited to see what the models show today LOL. Right now I feel 50/50 on whether a storm will happen or not. This setup reminds me of the January snowstorm earlier this year. Things could still end up being a dry cold though with no storm.

[wxman22]

12z ICON looks like the overnight Euro. System does not dig as much and is weaker.

[Ntxw]

12z ICON looks like the overnight Euro. System does not dig as much and is weaker.

After some days of trending cutoff low in the baja, the trend now is more positive tilt. This is actually nicer for the northeastern part of the state, trend wise, and bad for the western part.

[rwfromkansas]

I hate when the eastern folks get smug. They have all the fun lol

We want at least a little SE ridge, but looks like that may be a nope. Not a good trend for winter if it stays.

[Stratton23]

GFS tries to bring a piece of the TPV down into NA behind our arctic front in early december

[Iceresistance]

Did the GFS get to the mid-range shenanigans by just outright killing the SE Ridge?


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9UcN.gif

[Iceresistance]

I like the CMC

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9Ucg.gif

Okay wow, I didn't expect that much snow

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9UcP.png

EDIT: I forgot it was 0z CMC, not 12z, oops!

[wxman22]

The Euro shows some snow here with the cold core. At least the Euro came in more aggressive with the vorticity, we can work with this lol.

[Stratton23]

12z CMC has some frozen precipitation in northern parts of se texas as a coastal low gets cranking

[Stratton23]

Also their are massive conflicting signals heading into december as the MJO goes into phase 8 and we have a really strong + TNH signal, its not reflected in ensembles or operational runs yet as they all have a zonal flow after this early december arctic front, but i suspect we should see models trend colder as we get into early december and beyond , at least thats what i see, but again in just a weather nerd and no certified MET and could definitely be wrong,

[txtwister78]

As usual CMC showing its cold bias. You can toss that one into the fantasy land bucket

A little something for everyone however with this upcoming pattern. A taste of winter for a few days Sunday into early next wk followed by a warming trend end of the wk beyond.

[Iceresistance]

Also their are massive conflicting signals heading into december as the MJO goes into phase 8 and we have a really strong + TNH signal, its not reflected in ensembles or operational runs yet as they all have a zonal flow after this early december arctic front, but i suspect we should see models trend colder as we get into early december and beyond , at least thats what i see, but again in just a weather nerd and no certified MET and could definitely be wrong,

We're in the mid-range shenanigans for the upcoming storm system, which is messing up all the models

[Kludge]

Did the GFS get to the mid-range shenanigans by just outright killing the SE Ridge?

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9UcN.gif
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9UcN.gif

LOL yeah the GFS said 'I lied to you yesterday but today I'm telling the truth'

[TomballEd]

I'm smelling a whiff in the major population centers. Smaller population centers like SPS, AMA and LUB get enough winter weather that a little freezing rain or even snow isn't newsworthy.

That said, Canadian might cancel school in the DFW area if it verifies. I don't think it verifies.

CFS shows the big Alaskan ridge returning Christmas week. I think that is the better bet for winter weather reaching 100W and points east.

[Stratton23]

AIFS has a coastal low cranking up off brownsville with temps in the mid- upper 30’s, wouldn’t be surprised to see or hear reports of some sleet mixed in, AIFS/CMC have the right idea on temperatures