Texas Winter 2025-2026

[wxman22]

OUN (Norman) has put a slight chance of freezing rain in the forecast Monday night with a low of 25 for now.

[Cpv17]

https://x.com/meteomark/status/1993456962919616862?s=46

This is what I was talking about a few days ago when I mentioned another SSW in late December.

[Brent]

Mike Morgan going with below freezing temps from Saturday night through Tuesday morning that would be insane after how warm it's been

Oh and AccuWeather long range is very cold and stormy in December for whatever that is worth (you can laugh because its an app and I was at first too but I've been watching it for a couple months now and this is the first time it's shown a clear signal for something consistently interesting). Yeah I do think the pattern relaxes for a bit after this but probably not for long

And it's still running pretty warm early next week considering the forecasts

[Stratton23]

Modes are starting to hint at more of a + TNH pattern taking shape after our early december front, seeing some rather interesting changes in guidance, not straight up zonal flow like what was being suggested a few days ago

[Brent]

Modes are starting to hint at more of a + TNH pattern taking shape after our early december front, seeing some rather interesting changes in guidance, not straight up zonal flow like what was being suggested a few days ago

Heck I was told by someone well known here last week there would be no cold air anytime soon so yeah... The predictions are going well

It's amazing how fast things can change in this hobby. I wouldn't even worry about the long range GFS showing a torch or whatever

[Cpv17]

People on the EC are gonna love this mornings GFS lol

[HockeyTx82]

People on the EC are gonna love this mornings GFS lol

What are you seeing.

Your post could mean two things. Either it rips their hearts out or it gives them everything they've asked for.

[wxman22]

The 12z ICON brought back the snow. Looks similar to last nights CMC run.

[Brent]

The 12z ICON brought back the snow. Looks similar to last nights CMC run.

https://i.ibb.co/bRzhNbB9/IMG-0548.png

https://i.ibb.co/zWDk2szr/IMG-0549.png

Yeah I dunno I find it funny some people are just totally ruling out the second wave now and therefore it's automatically less cold

Again last week someone who is pretty well respected here said no cold air anytime soon lol

Someone else is saying Mike Morgan is totally off his rocker calling for 2 days below freezing

[Ntxw]

Noted yesterday the positive tilt nature of the trough coming out now in the medium range. Lets see if moisture can start showing up more with some cold air in place. The northeast would love a raging snow storm crawling up from Texas to NYC-BOS over the prior RNA.

[Ntxw]

The 12z ICON brought back the snow. Looks similar to last nights CMC run.

https://i.ibb.co/bRzhNbB9/IMG-0548.png

https://i.ibb.co/zWDk2szr/IMG-0549.png

Yeah I dunno I find it funny some people are just totally ruling out the second wave now and therefore it's automatically less cold

Again last week someone who is pretty well respected here said no cold air anytime soon lol

Someone else is saying Mike Morgan is totally off his rocker calling for 2 days below freezing

The trend actually benefits us a little more, both in terms of just cold enough duration and ejection, just a tad dry, usually is with positive tilt. No raging blizzard from Amarillo to Chicago but doesn't pump up 75F along I-35 either. Just got to find moisture before it goes up the east coast.

[wxman22]

It will be interesting to see what mesoscale models show. Global models can sometimes miss the moisture with these positive tilted troughs due to their lower resolution.

[Iceresistance]

We went from having some winter precipitation to maybe being lucky to have any, I really hate the mid-range shenanigans.

[Stratton23]

AIFS really loads our source region in canada over the next 2 weeks, I suspect models will trend colder , particularly after the first week of december, + TNH pattern, the cold will build

[Iceresistance]

AIFS really loads our source region in canada over the next 2 weeks, I suspect models will trend colder , particularly after the first week of december, + TNH pattern, the cold will build

I was thinking the first part of December would be cold, middle part will be milder, then the Christmas side gets colder again

[Stratton23]

Iceresistance you probably are right, but i suspect the models and even ensembles are going to be incorrect about zonal flow when we have a + TNH developing , Euro is showing these changes as well, I think we get a brief warmup for 5-6 days, but. i do see evidence of a return to a colder pattern somewhere in the US, im not sold on a long duration warm up across the US

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Snow cover is building with the storms this week. Thats a good signal moving forward.

[txtwister78]

Nothing earth shattering yet folks. Models were advertising a colder solution a week or so ago for this upcoming time period after Thanksgiving (including the AIFS) and yet we're looking at 40's and 50's now for highs Monday followed by a warming trend by the end of next the so I'd caution getting too caught up over medium range signals with the same models (including ensembles) that have struggled with the pattern.

With a positive AO signal however any cold we get down here will likely be transient in nature anyway. Yes, there are obviously other factors that can bring some cold but overall until the AO cooperates in concert with the other players it's going to be more rollercoaster if that as opposed to any sustained cold in my opinion.

Enjoy your Thanksgiving!

[wxman22]

I wonder if we’ll see our first teens of the season next week, Norman is now going for a low of 23 Monday night.

[Wthrfan]

Nothing earth shattering yet folks. Models were advertising a colder solution a week or so ago for this upcoming time period after Thanksgiving (including the AIFS) and yet we're looking at 40's and 50's now for highs Monday followed by a warming trend by the end of next the so I'd caution getting too caught up over medium range signals with the same models (including ensembles) that have struggled with the pattern.

With a positive AO signal however any cold we get down here will likely be transient in nature anyway. Yes, there are obviously other factors that can bring some cold but overall until the AO cooperates in concert with the other players it's going to be more rollercoaster if that as opposed to any sustained cold in my opinion.

Enjoy your Thanksgiving!

Welp, looks like Larry Cosgrove was right again unfortunately. Hopefully we’ll get some winter action come late December into January.