Texas Winter 2025-2026

[wxman22]

This record probably won't hold,but as of today, this is the warmest November in OKC history. Three of the top 9 warmest Decembers were 2021 (1st),2023 (6th) and 2024 (9th). Here's to hoping we don't see a repeat this year. The next week looks pretty decent with near normal temps after the brief cold. I'll take that as a win!

Agree, at least there’s no blowtorch showing up anytime soon.

[Iceresistance]

Phase 8 of all of December?
 https://x.com/scweather_wx/status/1994396957113270603

[Ntxw]

Phase 8 of all of December?
 https://x.com/scweather_wx/status/1994396957113270603

We'll have to see, not really looking for brutal cold, just want a couple of legit snow threats. 60s are now above normal, need consistent cold days 50s or lower.

[Stratton23]

want the MJO going into phase 8 but not into the null circle, that would kill the signal, hope we get a few chances for snow this winter! Or at the least 30’s and 40’s for highs would be amazing

[Iceresistance]

Well well well, color me shocked. We actually got an SSW Event ongoing

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9oTj.png

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Well well well, color me shocked. We actually got an SSW Event ongoing
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9oTj.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9oTj.png

I hope it translates to colder here maybe in a few weeks if it sets up correct

[Cpv17]

Well well well, color me shocked. We actually got an SSW Event ongoing
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9oTj.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9oTj.png

I hope it translates to colder here maybe in a few weeks if it sets up correct

Second half of December, hopefully.

[wxman22]

Some of the mesoscale models are showing freezing rain here. Norman is watching it.

[Brent]

I still don't see the big warmup here either yeah back to average but nothing like it was this record setting hot fall certainly

I feel like it's only a matter of time til a much more significant front. The fact this front even still has a shot at frozen precip here is pretty crazy

Although where is the southeast ridge. That would help us

[wxman22]

Looking at mesoscale models it looks like highs will be in the 30's tomorrow & possibly Monday also.

[wxman22]

The next shortwave after Mondays system, will be here Thursday/Friday. One interesting thing to note is that models do show a weak SE ridge developing ahead of this system. But the air temps being cold enough for frozen precip looks questionable. The 12Z CMC has some nice eye candy of what could happen if temps are cold, but not holding my breath on this yet lol.Just posting for fun.

[wxman22]

The front just moved through here.

[gpsnowman]

The front just moved through here.

Still waiting patiently here. Sun has come out and it's getting warm and humid. Maybe by 4 o'clock or so. I'm getting my kicks by watching the Ohio State-Michigan snow game.

[TomballEd]

Rain and in the 40s is midwinter weather for SETX.

[jasons2k]

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1254
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
452 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 292151Z - 300351Z

Summary...Thunderstorms near Houston TX are expected to grow upscale and potentially backbuild/train with time. Hourly amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 5" could lead to widely scattered instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Satellite and radar imagery indicate the formation of showers and thunderstorms near and east of a baroclinic zone oriented northwest-southeast across Southeast TX within a region of 850 hPa confluence near I-10. ML/MU CAPE to the west and southwest is 1000-2000 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is near 40 kts, which has led to right movers near IAH itself. The atmosphere is saturated, considering precipitable water values (1.25-1.5" per GPS data) within a region of 5630 meter 1000-500 hPa thickness values. Hourly rain amounts of are up to 0.5-1" in the past hour near Stagecoach TX, as of the time of this discussion's writing.

The 18z HREF moreso than the 12z REFS indicates the continued building of thunderstorms in this area, with some further increase in convective coverage, which may show backbuilding, training character with time. Instability could erode/retreat westward with time depending upon the degree of convective coverage, essentially stalling the front west of Houston. Cell mergers are also possible as less organized convection moves more northeast while more organized convection moves more to the east. Given the parameters, hourly amounts to 2.5" with local amounts to 5" are possible over the next several hours, with the magnitude most in line with the 12z ARW and 20z HRRR guidance. There is a chance late in the MPD period of convection trying to form across northeast TX presently near and ahead of an advancing cold front approaching the southeast TX convective area, which could lead to more cell mergers at or beyond 04z. Since the 12z ARW and 18z HREF are closer to the convective evolution thus far, used their guidance for the defined MPD area. Widely scattered instances of flash flooding are considered possible, particularly in the Houston metropolitan area.

Roth

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

[DW5522]

Front is passing through northern Grayson county right now. In the deer stand and the wind just hit me like a truck.

[Stratton23]

18z GFS is a bit interesting lol

[Brent]

18z GFS is a bit interesting lol

Definitely doesn't look very warm like I keep hearing I dunno

I still would like to see more of a southeast ridge though. Too progressive. Like Monday's storm is moving too fast to be that good here

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I’m still not seeing any ‘warm’ weather for December. Nothing brutally cold either. Looks seasonal with a couple days a tad above and several below per models and weeklies.

[Stratton23]

Brent ive noticed so far this fall, the models have been too aggressive with warm ups in the long range, and they end up correcting colder, last week they all had the SE ridge baking the SE ridge, only for models to end up trending colder lol, hopefully thats a common theme this winter, the less extended warmups, the better, but as you said we do want a little bit of SE ridging to provide some resistance, but not too much lol