Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Warmer signal continues via CPC and the ensembles beyond this wk. Colder air will shift east for now next two weeks

The rollercoaster pattern mentioned a few days ago should come to an end for a bit with more seasonal weather low to mid 70's for highs more likely down across this area of our state.

I do find it interesting it's going to warm up considering mjo is meandering in phase 8 and the SSW. Maybe the +EAMT is causing it?

[Ntxw]

I hope nobody finds it annoying that most of my comments here are about the cold long range and really nothing else like rainfall, storms etc, I know looking at cold beyond 10 days in modeling can be a headache lol, but im biased in the cold weather department, thats really the kind of weather that excites me the most in regards to talking about potential ,even outside of winter, so i do apologize when i go off about what i see in the models regarding cold because i definitely may not be right and may jump the gun too early and the cold never verifies, at least this time i hope im not wrong

No need to apologize my friend. Most of us are amateurs and while it is nice getting it right, there is no reward for it, the weather does what it does. If a model is showing something you have every ability to share it! Even if it's 486 hours out . Discussion is key here. There are many official sources if you want more accurate forecasts from, if that's what you're needing. Post away!

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Warmer signal continues via CPC and the ensembles beyond this wk. Colder air will shift east for now next two weeks

The rollercoaster pattern mentioned a few days ago should come to an end for a bit with more seasonal weather low to mid 70's for highs more likely down across this area of our state.

I do find it interesting it's going to warm up considering mjo is meandering in phase 8 and the SSW. Maybe the +EAMT is causing it? We may not get any cold from the SSW that happened earlier, which they are hard to figure out

[rwfromkansas]

I hope nobody finds it annoying that most of my comments here are about the cold long range and really nothing else like rainfall, storms etc, I know looking at cold beyond 10 days in modeling can be a headache lol, but im biased in the cold weather department, thats really the kind of weather that excites me the most in regards to talking about potential ,even outside of winter, so i do apologize when i go off about what i see in the models regarding cold because i definitely may not be right and may jump the gun too early and the cold never verifies, at least this time i hope im not wrong

No need to apologize my friend. Most of us are amateurs and while it is nice getting it right, there is no reward for it, the weather does what it does. If a model is showing something you have every ability to share it! Even if it's 486 hours out . Discussion is key here. There are many official sources if you want more accurate forecasts from, if that's what you're needing. Post away!

I overhyped a little bit even when trying not to do so on my personal Facebook, so a little egg on my face now that it warms up. Lol. At least my KS relatives are seeing some snow and cold, so they are considering it verified.

[cstrunk]

I hope nobody finds it annoying that most of my comments here are about the cold long range and really nothing else like rainfall, storms etc, I know looking at cold beyond 10 days in modeling can be a headache lol, but im biased in the cold weather department, thats really the kind of weather that excites me the most in regards to talking about potential ,even outside of winter, so i do apologize when i go off about what i see in the models regarding cold because i definitely may not be right and may jump the gun too early and the cold never verifies, at least this time i hope im not wrong

No issues here.

There's not much to talk about as far as rain/storms for the next 10 days or so it seems. Some rain for SE Texas probably. Some models do hint at some potential for severe weather towards mid-December. Too far out for me to care about right now.

[txtwister78]

Warmer signal continues via CPC and the ensembles beyond this wk. Colder air will shift east for now next two weeks

The rollercoaster pattern mentioned a few days ago should come to an end for a bit with more seasonal weather low to mid 70's for highs more likely down across this area of our state.

I do find it interesting it's going to warm up considering mjo is meandering in phase 8 and the SSW. Maybe the +EAMT is causing it? We may not get any cold from the SSW that happened earlier, which they are hard to figure out

Some folks may read or hear Sudden Stratospheric Warming and automatically assume that means cold is coming for their region or "MJO phase 8" and assume the pattern will result in wall to wall cold.

Just like not every El Nino or La Nina is the same it's similar in context with these other variables in context to other players at a given time that present themselves

With SSW events these often take time to reveal outcomes or depending on they evolve over time do they overwhelm a pattern, do they stay bottled up or do they impact only one area of the country when you factor in teleconnection states etc.

In other words to your point more complicated than just saying catch words in my opinion without greater study. Granted the mere fact that some of these signals are in place however does signal the prospect of cold but it's certainly not the end all be all in my humble opinion for a given region in the south especially.

[Cpv17]

SSWE’s aren’t always going to impact the entire country. It seems like the one we just had in late November is mainly going to impact the Great Lakes and NE.

[Stratton23]

Yeah the pattern im seeing ( after the 16th) looks to be more MJO driven, blocking and or teleconnections, that being said you can still get really cold even without a SSWE , with models showing a trough north of Hawaii, I suspect we should see a correction towards a more central- eastern us based trough in the long range. I don’t buy models dumping the trough out west for two reasons. 1. The models have really over done SE Ridging, last week models were showing our “ cold snap” on monday being more out in the western US with a stout SE ridge, and look how that played out, models were embarrassingly bad with SE ridging. 2. A trough NW of hawaii typically favors downstream troughing over the central and eastern US. We probably will see some crazy runs in the days ahead as models likely will correct toward my thinking above.

[Brent]

Honestly I think a lot of people on social media just like to hype the SSW and MJO to get likes and people's hopes up. Same reason they talk about 2 weeks out. It may never verify or help us but they gotta get people interested

Such is winter around here. Nothing ever guarantees us snow is again my whole other thing... Even here with better climo. I don't need to bring up the snow holes I've seen since 21 again do i

Yeah 4 winters here only 2 of them have been good so far. Heck OKC has been worse off than us since 21

And in both cases it was one big storm in January or February pretty much. Everything else has been meh considering the hype we always get(and again last year just came out of nowhere with no hype)

[Quixotic]

I hope nobody finds it annoying that most of my comments here are about the cold long range and really nothing else like rainfall, storms etc, I know looking at cold beyond 10 days in modeling can be a headache lol, but im biased in the cold weather department, thats really the kind of weather that excites me the most in regards to talking about potential ,even outside of winter, so i do apologize when i go off about what i see in the models regarding cold because i definitely may not be right and may jump the gun too early and the cold never verifies, at least this time i hope im not wrong

Nah. It’s precisely what i am here for. If I’m posting, winter wx is on the table.

[Quixotic]

SSWE’s aren’t always going to impact the entire country. It seems like the one we just had in late November is mainly going to impact the Great Lakes and NE.

Might not even go to this side of the globe. SSWs are overrated IMO.

[HockeyTx82]

I hope nobody finds it annoying that most of my comments here are about the cold long range and really nothing else like rainfall, storms etc, I know looking at cold beyond 10 days in modeling can be a headache lol, but im biased in the cold weather department, thats really the kind of weather that excites me the most in regards to talking about potential ,even outside of winter, so i do apologize when i go off about what i see in the models regarding cold because i definitely may not be right and may jump the gun too early and the cold never verifies, at least this time i hope im not wrong

Nah. It’s precisely what i am here for. If I’m posting, winter wx is on the table.

Well you are posting so.......

[Brent]

Funny enough there's a winter weather advisory in OKC for up to 2 inches of snow tomorrow already

Just goes to show how unpredictable our weather can be

But no I don't mind us discussing the long range(I think we're all fully aware it doesn't always verify) but it's people on social media that do it to get thousands of likes and comments and then they wonder why nobody trusts the meteorologists when it doesn't happen

[mmmmsnouts]

Odd temperature gradient in NTX today with the cloud cover. The further east you went the colder it got.

[Brent]

Lol now a winter weather advisory here for up to an inch of snow in the morning. Go figure. Yesterday it wasnt even in OKC!

Sometimes you just have to sit back and not worry about what the models show. At least it's not gonna be 100 degrees

[Quixotic]

I hope nobody finds it annoying that most of my comments here are about the cold long range and really nothing else like rainfall, storms etc, I know looking at cold beyond 10 days in modeling can be a headache lol, but im biased in the cold weather department, thats really the kind of weather that excites me the most in regards to talking about potential ,even outside of winter, so i do apologize when i go off about what i see in the models regarding cold because i definitely may not be right and may jump the gun too early and the cold never verifies, at least this time i hope im not wrong

Nah. It’s precisely what i am here for. If I’m posting, winter wx is on the table.

Well you are posting so.......

Ha! Let’s just say I’m here earlier than usual for a reason.

[Brent]

Nah. It’s precisely what i am here for. If I’m posting, winter wx is on the table.

Well you are posting so.......

Ha! Let’s just say I’m here earlier than usual for a reason.

Yeah that's one thing I'm noticing. A lot of people seem unusually hyped about this winter

I'll believe it when I see it but then again this is our second winter threat in 4 days here even if we are going to warm up for awhile

[TropicalTundra]

mPING’s reporting Sleet in or around the Lubbock area? Any confirmation?

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Well you are posting so.......

Ha! Let’s just say I’m here earlier than usual for a reason.

Yeah that's one thing I'm noticing. A lot of people seem unusually hyped about this winter

I'll believe it when I see it but then again this is our second winter threat in 4 days here even if we are going to warm up for awhile

The pdo has risen from its low levels a few months ago. Hoping it can allow the pacific jet to not be as strong this winter.

[Ntxw]

Models are slowly showing in the medium range TPV dipping into the upper midwest and Great Lakes, which wasn't showing up prior for next week. They just aren't performing well, guessing because Canada is so frigid it doesn't take much.

The biggest change has been to raise heights over the NAO/AO domain which a few days ago were showing positive, now they are solidly forecasted negative.