Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Brent]

I guess we have to wait and see what happens in the near to long term future but one thing I can be for certain is the dense fog. On the way home my gosh we just got in from Six Flags and when I hit 2449 going west off of 35 to head back to Ponder I could hardly see the road in some instances.

Oh yeah the fog was about the worst I've ever heard of up here. Some of the rural areas didn't even clear out all day. See today was supposed to be sunny and warmer and well it didn't even get close

And yet another post at 145am lol from Larry Cosgrove about a "memorable" Christmas week. This is weird to me because he usually doesn't hype

[Golfisnoteasy75]

I guess we have to wait and see what happens in the near to long term future but one thing I can be for certain is the dense fog. On the way home my gosh we just got in from Six Flags and when I hit 2449 going west off of 35 to head back to Ponder I could hardly see the road in some instances.

Oh yeah the fog was about the worst I've ever heard of up here. Some of the rural areas didn't even clear out all day. See today was supposed to be sunny and warmer and well it didn't even get close

And yet another post at 145am lol from Larry Cosgrove about a "memorable" Christmas week. This is weird to me because he usually doesn't hype

He has been forecasting weather for a long time. JB hypes alot because he knows more people, on average, likes cold and snow. He has to get subscribers since he works for wxbell. He did it when he was at accuweather. LC really don't have a reason to hype. They all know the ebbs and flows of the pattern, but still is hard to predict anything way far out with any accuracy

[Iceresistance]

lol the CFS has a very cold christmas

The new CFS (current 0z) has a -83*F anomaly in Canada, can't say I've seen that before

[Stratton23]

hahah lol thays crazy, But i do think this pattern really has the potential to unload a big arctic outbreak during the week of christmas, you just dont get a pattern like this often where canada is consistently seeded with cold air over and over again, if we see that ridge pop off in Alaska, then its really game on!

[txtwister78]

Ensembles continue to look warm in the medium range.

Maybe a brush of cold air next week but even that won't last long with warmer air quickly building back in.

Right now the pattern is ripping along too quickly to really drive cold south. May just be a matter of time as long as cold keeps recycling but need to see things slow down in order to get a more amplified map to open the floodgates otherwise pacific air will dominate

[Stratton23]

I do agree with Txtwister78 that the flow right now is too amplified for any sustained cold and favors some pacific air, although nothing close to a torch. But man look at that ridge bridge from Alaska- Arctic circle/ beaufort sea on the GFS, I dont think Santa will be wearing flip flops when he visits the US lol

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Ensembles continue to look warm in the medium range.

Maybe a brush of cold air next week but even that won't last long with warmer air quickly building back in.

Right now the pattern is ripping along too quickly to really drive cold south. May just be a matter of time as long as cold keeps recycling but need to see things slow down in order to get a more amplified map to open the floodgates otherwise pacific air will dominate

Maybe the -wpo is hurting us in reality. Apparently the ao/nao are positive, which isn't good. If we are in mjo phase 8, it would seem like those would be trending negative. Shows you that mjo is just a small part of it. I hope we do get a pattern that supports better opportunities at cold and snow

[Iceresistance]

Euro has this with others, yet the models torch. I don't understand some things. The MJO has been very difficult to forecast on the models lately

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bENSn.png

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Euro has this with others, yet the models torch. I don't understand some things. The MJO has been very difficult to forecast on the models lately
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bENSn.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bENSn.png

When orangeblood and other heavy hitters get online, at that time we can get excited. Maybe lol

[wxman22]

It hasn't been warm up here at all. Lows expected to get into the mid 20's tonight. Its all relative to where you live in the state of course.

[Cpv17]

I don’t really care what phase the MJO is in, till we get help from the AO, the cold will stay bottled up N, IMO.

[Stratton23]

Give it time lol, it will come, Euro extended, GEFS show a trend toward neutral/ negative with the AO the week of christmas, that cold air is going to get dislodged eventually

[Cpv17]

Give it time lol, it will come, Euro extended, GEFS show a trend toward neutral/ negative with the AO the week of christmas, that cold air is going to get dislodged eventually

It’s early, I’m not concerned about it.

[Stratton23]

Exactly, as much as i love the cold, im certainly not going all in on this pattern happening, but their is enough their to at least watch how everything involves, I will say though models habe been absolutely atrocious this year with showing maasive warmups in the long range, the persistent - WPO isnt going to allow pacific air to just flood the country, so that is one good thing

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Exactly, as much as i love the cold, im certainly not going all in on this pattern happening, but their is enough their to at least watch how everything involves, I will say though models habe been absolutely atrocious this year with showing maasive warmups in the long range, the persistent - WPO isnt going to allow pacific air to just flood the country, so that is one good thing

A -epo would be better for us than a -wpo. A shift or retrograde of the trough would be nice to see.

[Stratton23]

Agreed, we got a long ways to go, so we will just have to see how this plays out though, i would love a repeat of christmas 2022 arctic blast lol

[Brent]

Not really worried about it either maybe when we cold in January or February itll be an actual winter weather pattern for us instead of this dry and boring stuff

I'm not closing the door on a cold Christmas I'm just not holding my breath either

I will say though the NWS forecast up here this weekend is still the coldest air we've seen

[Stratton23]

06z GFS potentially looks like its coming in colder the week of christmas, monster ridge spiking over Alaska

Edit: Dumps the entire arctic into texas lol

[TomballEd]

Fronts pass with seasonably cold air but I don't see Arctic air pouring into Texas.

All of Canada is in the deep freeze, that will eventually head this way but not in time for Christmas.

[Ralph's Weather]

Snuck in another freeze this morning in Lindale. Thankful for no torch while we wait for our Arctic blast to show up.