2025 TCR's

[Hurricane2022]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/CP012025_Iona.pdf

Iona is out – now a C4 hurricane.

[Teban54]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/CP012025_Iona.pdf

Iona is out – now a C4 hurricane.

I recall that TCRs for CPAC storms, as well as the CPAC portions of crossover storms, were usually left to CPHC staff.

This sometimes resulted in delays up to 3 years: Madeline 2016's report was updated only in March 2019 to include the CPHC's sections, while Ema 2019's report was only released in January 2022 and authored by Birchard from CPHC. Dora 2023's report still has a footnote saying that it will be updated once CPHC and JTWC complete their analyses, which haven't been done two years after the storm.

But Iona's and Keli's reports were both written by NHC forecasters with no such footnotes. So is the NHC taking over CPHC's responsibilities for TCRs now? Or was it a change associated with the new practice of "abbreviated reports" that started this year?

[ljmac75]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/CP012025_Iona.pdf

Iona is out – now a C4 hurricane.

I recall that TCRs for CPAC storms, as well as the CPAC portions of crossover storms, were usually left to CPHC staff.

This sometimes resulted in delays up to 3 years: Madeline 2016's report was updated only in March 2019 to include the CPHC's sections, while Ema 2019's report was only released in January 2022 and authored by Birchard from CPHC. Dora 2023's report still has a footnote saying that it will be updated once CPHC and JTWC complete their analyses, which haven't been done two years after the storm.

But Iona's and Keli's reports were both written by NHC forecasters with no such footnotes. So is the NHC taking over CPHC's responsibilities for TCRs now? Or was it a change associated with the new practice of "abbreviated reports" that started this year?

Abbreviated reports have been around since 2023. Side note: we're at 4/13 reports for the Atlantic, 10/18 for the EPAC, and both of the storms that formed in the CPAC have reports now. 16/33, that's a good amount for it not even being the end of the year yet.

[StormWeather]

Tropical Storm Lorenzo from the Atlantic is up:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL122025_Lorenzo.pdf

[StormWeather]

Hurricane Kiko from the Eastern Pacific is up with no change in the winds, remaining 125 kts.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP112025_Kiko.pdf

[StormWeather]

The report for Hurricane Henriette is out now.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP082 ... riette.pdf

[StormWeather]

Hurricane Octave’s TCR is out, with a peak of 80 kts.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP152025_Octave.pdf

[ljmac75]

Karen https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL112025_Karen.pdf

[CrazyC83]

Karen https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL112025_Karen.pdf

I'd have moved genesis up a bit more based on the description, and given the RMW size and lack of frontal features, I'd have reclassified it a a fully tropical storm personally.

[Sciencerocks]

Karen https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL112025_Karen.pdf

I'd have moved genesis up a bit more based on the description, and given the RMW size and lack of frontal features, I'd have reclassified it a a fully tropical storm personally.

I agree. I would have also based on the eye feature peaked it around 55 knts as a pure tropical cyclone.

[Hurricane2022]

I'm still thinking about Humberto's future TCR. Curious to see what the NHC will say about him. CrazyC83 any thoughts?

[StormWeather]

Tropical Storm Sonia’s TCR is out now

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP182025_Sonia.pdf

[ljmac75]

Humberto, 918 140 https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL082025_Humberto.pdf

[MarioProtVI]

Humberto, 918 140 https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL082025_Humberto.pdf

Not shocked they lowered the pressure because of the unusually low MSLP measures by recon post-EWRC (and when it was already degraded quite a lot), but not raising the winds as a result is confusing. It’s not even mentioned in the TCR. Kinda makes me wonder that they may just keep Melissa at 160 kt then if they weren’t gonna up Humberto at least 5-10 kt.

[cheezyWXguy]

Humberto, 918 140 https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL082025_Humberto.pdf

Not shocked they lowered the pressure because of the unusually low MSLP measures by recon post-EWRC (and when it was already degraded quite a lot), but not raising the winds as a result is confusing. It’s not even mentioned in the TCR. Kinda makes me wonder that they may just keep Melissa at 160 kt then if they weren’t gonna up Humberto at least 5-10 kt.

They could, but I think there’s a better chance Melissa gets a more in-depth reevaluation. Main factor being Humberto was nowhere near land when its peak was reached, which obviously wasn’t the case for Melissa.

[Category5Kaiju]

Fun fact: Humberto has officially matched its predecessor, the infamous Hugo, in both wind speed and minimum pressure.

[CrazyC83]

Going back through the data on Humberto, it's certainly tough when you have a storm peaking before Recon arrives. Everything was pretty consistent around T7.0 at its peak though, so 140 kt is probably a good estimate then. Additionally, when Recon did arrive, it seemed to run in line with the satellite estimates at the time.

Regarding the pressure, the big difference may have partially been because of the ERC that was ongoing and completed soon after. If the 14 mb difference was used all the way through, the peak would have been about 910 mb, which is very unlikely. All things considered, 918 mb is probably a decent estimate, although it might have been a bit higher (say more like 920 to 922 mb). There's no way to prove though.

[aspen]

Humberto, 918 140 https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL082025_Humberto.pdf

918 is a good pressure estimate, but keeping the winds the same with such a big pressure change from operational is a little odd. 145 kt would’ve been perfect.