Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Lagreeneyes03]

Seems so strange to me that with such a heat wave coming, nary a rain/severe threat, but I guess since there's no big temp gradient; cold/hot line not much to see.

6Z Euro suggests a weak boundary is in Oklahoma at 6 days, not as obvious on GFS. Moisture is there but almost summer time high heights would be a big negative for storms.

Wild to think about a cap in December. But then again, 10 years ago was tragic.

[Stratton23]

Baby steps on ensembles but things are starting to trend in the right direction, north pacific blocking is trending closer to Alaska, ensembles starting to finally shift the west coast trough east somewhat, - AO and - NAO are becoming established on ensembles, PNA weakens to more weak negative- neutral, ive been preaching a pattern change around or just before new years on here for the past several days, looks like my idea will be put to the test, hopefully im right

[rwfromkansas]

Interesting video on 1977 and 1978 winters: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8lMcWD3EHqM&t=2s

I do hope we start to see some change. Some hopeful signs, it just seems to move slowly once a pattern is stuck.

[wxman22]

FYI Starting today the AI GFS is now freely available to the public. It has a nice front on New Years. I’m sure it will change in the next run lol
Link Below


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1812&fh=18

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Baby steps on ensembles but things are starting to trend in the right direction, north pacific blocking is trending closer to Alaska, ensembles starting to finally shift the west coast trough east somewhat, - AO and - NAO are becoming established on ensembles, PNA weakens to more weak negative- neutral, ive been preaching a pattern change around or just before new years on here for the past several days, looks like my idea will be put to the test, hopefully im right

Definitely looks warm around Christmas. Been looking that way for a while now. Aleutian ridge is what's hurting us currently. A shift either west or east would do wonders for our area imo.

[gpsnowman]

This sucks. Happy shorts Saturday. Happy shorts Christmas week.

[Brent]

Seems so strange to me that with such a heat wave coming, nary a rain/severe threat, but I guess since there's no big temp gradient; cold/hot line not much to see.

6Z Euro suggests a weak boundary is in Oklahoma at 6 days, not as obvious on GFS. Moisture is there but almost summer time high heights would be a big negative for storms.

Wild to think about a cap in December. But then again, 10 years ago was tragic.

December 2021 is the one I remember too. Killer tornadoes in Arkansas and Kentucky and not a drop of rain here. It literally blew up an hour past us

That's also the last year we had a really warm Christmas

And of course the pattern flipped in January and it snowed for 48 hours we can only hope

[Stratton23]

CMC looks interesting in west texas around the 29th with a shortwave trough moving in and a flattened se ridge

[Quixotic]

Interesting video on 1977 and 1978 winters: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8lMcWD3EHqM&t=2s

I do hope we start to see some change. Some hopeful signs, it just seems to move slowly once a pattern is stuck.

Thanks for that. I was old enough to remember those winters but too young to remember the pattern. I recall a National Geographic story about the two winters and it mentioned that the North Pacific ridge and Aleutian low was the cause so I’ve always assumed it. Much like 2013-14 and 14-15. My dad got stuck in Buffalo for weeks but I’m not sure which winter it was. My bet is 76-77. He couldn’t even leave the hotel. That video confirms my thinking. As a 7-8 year old, 77-78 in particular stood out. It seemed like it snowed every day for two months. DFW listed 17” but I’m quite sure other areas were much higher. My BIL built a two story igloo in the front yard.

[Stratton23]

CMC/ Euro hinting at a more chilly/ maybe stormier pattern?

[Stratton23]

Like what im seeing from some ensemble guidance, though its a long ways from perfection, we will see

[WacoWx]

Ty for the positive updates, Stratton. You’re all I’ve got atm!

[Stratton23]

Im trying! I must say though im not a pro met, but ive taken a couple of weather classes at a&m, and i have also done a lot of self learning/ teaching while following guys like larry cosgrove, i do believe we are trending toward a colder pattern in january, things are shifting around that we want to see shift, we just have to give it some time, but im all in on this pattern change, if im wrong, im wrong and i wont have any issue with that, i probably wouldnt be posting this consistently on here if i didnt believe changes are coming

[Brent]

Hopefully the CPC is wrong still well above normal through mid January

Though yes I do see a trend towards more normal temperatures around New Years

I do admire the optimism in here though

[Stratton23]

Brent yeah hahah i try to keep the optimism alive despite social media trying to cancel winter lol

[wxman22]

Yep I agree its starting to look like temps may return to seasonal after next weeks heatwave Along with some rain. Starting to see some model agreement.

[Brent]

Definitely more talk about January now. Maybe we're headed the right way.

I think it's gonna be a very slow process but yeah. Try to enjoy the Christmas torch haha

[rwfromkansas]

Definitely more talk about January now. Maybe we're headed the right way.

I think it's gonna be a very slow process but yeah. Try to enjoy the Christmas torch haha

Since we have to take the dogs out ourselves at my wife’s family in Abilene due to no fence, I don’t mind the warmth frankly if it’s not snowing. I do hope it stays below 80 lol.

[Cpv17]

60’s and 70’s are very comfortable for me. Frankly, I have no problem with this “torch”. Plus, it’s not gonna stay like that for weeks on end. It’s gonna get cold again in a couple weeks.

[Ntxw]

Got back from Minnesota the snowpack was pretty good early in the week and gradually diminished by Friday. Below zero felt great .

Looks like the well advertised torchmas week is on tap. The -NAO will allow systems to dig to the SW but these will largely be cutoff from the cold supply due to the persistent Aleutian ridge holding the frigid air in Alaska and NW Canada. And it is a very persistent signature, it's not going away anytime soon. I don't think anything will change until at least week 2 of January and models tends to rush things.

If we don't get an MJO propagation, the pattern will repeat. It will be building cold over Alaska/NW Canada and spilling into the GOA, and then east of us. We'll see if anything changes mid January but there is no real sign of it. 300+ hours out isn't believable if there isn't a true mechanism for it.

Back in late October and November there were signs of cold for early December because of the Aleutian trough, so 300+ hours out you can see kind of why. Aleutian ridge doesn't translate to cold down here 2 weeks down the road.