Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Stratton23]

Looks like im about to look like a fool about this pattern change

[Ntxw]

Looks like im about to look like a fool about this pattern change

There may be improvement late January when the Pacific reshuffles, but that's so long away it's hard to say currently. Last year around this time there were strong signs from the Euro weeklies early and mid January would be cold and it did pan out. No such luck yet.

2011-2012 had a chilly start to December, but cold held over Alaska the rest of the winter. I don't think we go this route, especially if the Nina dies a lot faster. But so far, it's quite familiar.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw eric webb did say we should have some sort of westerly wind burst in the pacific in early january that should deal the killing blow in january, but i font know enough about that

[Harp.1]

I still have all of my videos from last January’s snow miracle here in south Louisiana. 13” at my house. Thank goodness, because there is NOTHING encouraging from anything I see.

[Stratton23]

12z Euro looks pretty decent lol, but probably just a tease

[txtwister78]

Mid 80's showing up next week into DFW. I know I called for torch a few wks ago for this timeframe but man even that would go beyond what I was thinking for that region.

No surprise further south but this ridge is going to cook.

[Stratton23]

Seems like NOAA/ CPC’s website is down, but their forecast is encouraging in terms of precipitation outlooks, leaning toward above normal, hopefully i am right about this, cold will come at some point in january, just need to get the storm track active, its been too dry

[Cpv17]

Seems like NOAA/ CPC’s website is down, but their forecast is encouraging in terms of precipitation outlooks, leaning toward above normal, hopefully i am right about this, cold will come at some point in january, just need to get the storm track active, its been too dry

Cold will come. It’s not gonna stay in the 70’s and 80’s every day for weeks on end. We’ll have some fronts come through over the next few weeks that will at least knock us down to near normal temps.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Got back from Minnesota the snowpack was pretty good early in the week and gradually diminished by Friday. Below zero felt great .

Looks like the well advertised torchmas week is on tap. The -NAO will allow systems to dig to the SW but these will largely be cutoff from the cold supply due to the persistent Aleutian ridge holding the frigid air in Alaska and NW Canada. And it is a very persistent signature, it's not going away anytime soon. I don't think anything will change until at least week 2 of January and models tends to rush things.

If we don't get an MJO propagation, the pattern will repeat. It will be building cold over Alaska/NW Canada and spilling into the GOA, and then east of us. We'll see if anything changes mid January but there is no real sign of it. 300+ hours out isn't believable if there isn't a true mechanism for it.

Back in late October and November there were signs of cold for early December because of the Aleutian trough, so 300+ hours out you can see kind of why. Aleutian ridge doesn't translate to cold down here 2 weeks down the road.

Well that’s depressing

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 I hope so, my optimism is just getting worn down lol, everything on social media is just doom and gloom lol, la nina cant be gone soon enough

[Ntxw]

Cpv17 I hope so, my optimism is just getting worn down lol, everything on social media is just doom and gloom lol, la nina cant be gone soon enough

I'm not sure we can fully attribute to it, but when the guidance showed P8 stall and then weaken and now re-emerging, I figured we were gonna be in trouble with warmth. Initially we felt some cold from things sliding east but the stall meant a stuck pattern and the S-C ridge flexed. P8 generally only works with a dominant subtropical jet, El Nino, not severe cold but can pull back the trough from the east. Doesn't really work in a Nina as well without STJ influence.

For us in a Nina I would rather see a P7 that weakens and remerges in P1-2 in the middle part of the country rather than the east coast, which loves P8.

[Ntxw]

Here are the examples of MJOs in December that works. You can go through P8 but you have to continue and the cold comes P1-P2+. Just trying to dissect what happened.

[Stratton23]

CFS 12z is a cruel tease in the first week of january and the 2 week lol

[Harp.1]

CFS 12z is a cruel tease in the first week of january and the 2 week lol

Can you post it? Thanks

[Stratton23]

NOAA’s forecast for rain chances is encouraging, 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks feature above normal rain chances , hopefully we can get an active STJ and batter this big central US ridge down

[Ntxw]

DFW airport overperformed today, 82F which beats the old daily record of 79F back in 2010.

[Stratton23]

Just now seeing the AI GFS is available on the platform im using which is weatherbell, pretty decent cool down in early january on this current run , im interested to see how ai modeling handles upper air patterns and all that fun stuff

[snownado]

DFW airport overperformed today, 82F which beats the old daily record of 79F back in 2010.

Beautiful day!

Got a brief return to *BLEH* tomorrow before a nice stretch of 70s/80s this upcoming week.

[Stratton23]

I spent an hour talking with Grok! And Grok says we will have cold weather in january, surely Grok knows all right?


Thats how down bad i am right now, talking to AI asking for hope in January lol

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Cpv17 I hope so, my optimism is just getting worn down lol, everything on social media is just doom and gloom lol, la nina cant be gone soon enough

I'm not sure we can fully attribute to it, but when the guidance showed P8 stall and then weaken and now re-emerging, I figured we were gonna be in trouble with warmth. Initially we felt some cold from things sliding east but the stall meant a stuck pattern and the S-C ridge flexed. P8 generally only works with a dominant subtropical jet, El Nino, not severe cold but can pull back the trough from the east. Doesn't really work in a Nina as well without STJ influence.

For us in a Nina I would rather see a P7 that weakens and remerges in P1-2 in the middle part of the country rather than the east coast, which loves P8.

Typically for me I check-out mentally and waive the white flag in mid January if things don't look good. Definitely need a pattern reshuffle of some sorts