Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Golfisnoteasy75]

If im not mistaken, when Europe turns cold, that usually means the US turns cold sometime after that, there seems to be at some correlation between the two

Very very long range GEFS shows the lower heights NW of Hawaii shifts to north of Hawaii and intruding the Aleutian Isles chain. That may be an early signal. I'd watch the MJO, it needs to move, if we see it start hauling into 1-2+ then we know the Pacific will change.

https://i.imgur.com/4pk3j0H.png

https://i.imgur.com/YoFhDF4.png

I spoke to my friend from Albany NY the other day. He teaches meteorology. He thinks if the mjo gets out of the phase 6, which is the warmest phase, the Pacific will align enough to match colder phases of mjo. He thinks by mid January but he said wasn't sold on it yet

[Ntxw]

Seems as if the extended forecast pattern has everyone in a state of confusion. Even Larry Cosgrove in his latest blog post seems a little puzzled about what January will hold.

Haha I just opened Facebook and the first post is about all the cold air coming in January

The second post is the TV met went to Utah to ski and he can't believe there's no snow at all....

Yeah I dunno guys maybe you should ask AI about winter again

I don't think there should be cold hype yet. In fact, the mild, unfavorable pattern is likely to continue...with breaks in it. I mean yeah it's not going to stay torch but a cold front that brings us 40s/50s for highs and light freezes isn't out of the ordinary for January. We're just looking for something to change and talk about but at best it will be mid-January, maybe.

If I know Larry Cosgrove from reading his views over the years, he always predicts a January thaw. Except there isn't anything to thaw from this time early. In fact the real thaw is this week!

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Seems as if the extended forecast pattern has everyone in a state of confusion. Even Larry Cosgrove in his latest blog post seems a little puzzled about what January will hold.

Haha I just opened Facebook and the first post is about all the cold air coming in January

The second post is the TV met went to Utah to ski and he can't believe there's no snow at all....

Yeah I dunno guys maybe you should ask AI about winter again

I don't think there should be cold hype yet. In fact, the mild, unfavorable pattern is likely to continue...with breaks in it. I mean yeah it's not going to stay torch but a cold front that brings us 40s/50s for highs and light freezes isn't out of the ordinary for January. We're just looking for something to change and talk about but at best it will be mid-January, maybe.

If I know Larry Cosgrove from reading his views over the years, he always predicts a January thaw. Except there isn't anything to thaw from this time early. In fact the real thaw is this week!

I think LC may have one of his biggest busts on a winter outlook ever! He went with above average for December, which don't look to verify. It will warm around Christmas but not enough to offset the cold that's already happened. He still believes mid January to mid March is when the real cold comes. I hope he is correct, but I have my doubts. Some winters are tougher than others to score

[snownado]

Haha I just opened Facebook and the first post is about all the cold air coming in January

The second post is the TV met went to Utah to ski and he can't believe there's no snow at all....

Yeah I dunno guys maybe you should ask AI about winter again

I don't think there should be cold hype yet. In fact, the mild, unfavorable pattern is likely to continue...with breaks in it. I mean yeah it's not going to stay torch but a cold front that brings us 40s/50s for highs and light freezes isn't out of the ordinary for January. We're just looking for something to change and talk about but at best it will be mid-January, maybe.

If I know Larry Cosgrove from reading his views over the years, he always predicts a January thaw. Except there isn't anything to thaw from this time early. In fact the real thaw is this week!

I think LC may have one of his biggest busts on a winter outlook ever! He went with above average for December, which don't look to verify. It will warm around Christmas but not enough to offset the cold that's already happened. He still believes mid January to mid March is when the real cold comes. I hope he is correct, but I have my doubts. Some winters are tougher than others to score

Just FYI, despite the cool days, DFW's departure for the month thus far (on the eve of our extended "heat wave") is *ONLY* -0.3*F...

[Stratton23]

00z ICON has a pretty decent shot of colder air around the 29th fwiw

[Quixotic]

And then, depression set in.

Depression?

It’s what I say when winter wx looks bleak. Quote from the movie Stripes after he lost his job, car, girlfriend and apartment in the space of an hour.

[Stratton23]

Euro 00z is pumping up an enormous - EPO ridge that also extends into the bearing sea , alot of cold air building in canada as a deep trough wants to dig to the south

[Ntxw]

Models are starting to show some MJO movement into more active phases. Things will look better past the new year.

[Brent]

There's definitely some snowy EPS members showing up here in January

I think it'll be a very slow process but I do feel like our time will come as long as we build some snow pack out west. That's the major problem right now outside of the whole Alaska mess(which I'm sure it's all related why they are behind)

Next week's cold is again transient due to that. In fact I've already seen a forecast of near 70 again for New Years

[wxman22]

Yep the Euro is starting to look more encouraging. Let’s see if the trends continue.

There is also growing support for a moderate cold front moving in next weekend around the 28th

[CaptinCrunch]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
548 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above-average and near-record warm temperatures return today
and continue through the rest of the week, including Christmas
Eve and Christmas Day.

- Cooler temperatures return Saturday night into Sunday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1208 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Yesterday`s cooler weather will be distant memory as we begin a
warming trend today, continuing through the rest of the week.
Thanks to an area of low pressure deepening across the Central
Plains, winds will be out of the south throughout the day. At
times, the winds will be breezy with gusts between 20 to 25 mph.

Plenty of moisture will be in place through the morning, leading
to cloudy skies. As we progress into the afternoon, drier air will
filter in from the west and mostly sunny skies will prevail. This
afternoon, temperatures will climb into the 70s areawide. The
warmer temperatures can also be expected tonight with lows in the
upper 50s to mid 60s across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1208 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Mid and upper level ridging will continue building on Tuesday,
delivering even warmer temperatures to the region. With the depth
of the warm air extending across the entire vertical profile of
the atmosphere, surface temperatures will remain well above
average through this entire week.

What will this warmth mean for your Christmas Eve or Christmas
day festivities? You`ll be able to enjoy spending time outdoors!
Kids will be riding their new bicycles and scooters in t-shirts
and shorts without having to worry about them being cold! How
warm will it actually be? Christmas Day will be slightly warmer
than Christmas Eve with temperatures west of I-35 in the lower to
mid 80s. Along and east of I-35, expect highs to be in the mid to
upper 70s. Compared to record temperatures (record is 82F), the
odds lean toward below-record highs at both DFW and Waco. Latest
trends indicate the odds of a record-hot Christmas day are below
30%.

The warm temperatures will only get warmer as we head into Friday
as it`s is shaping up to be the warmest day of the week. Highs
across much of North and Central Texas will be in the lower to mid
80s. The record at DFW is 83 degrees while Waco`s record is 84
degrees. Forecast high temperatures are a degree or two shy of
tying the record, however, the presence of a psudo-dryline in the
vicinity of the I-35 corridor in North Texas may lead to warmer
temperatures than currently forecast. We`ll continue to monitor
the position of the dry airmass as locations on the dry side of
the front will more readily warm up in comparison to the moist
side.

[wxman57]

That EC front Sunday night doesn't even bring freezing temps to the D-FW area. Meanwhile, it was a quite pleasant cycling weekend here in Houston. High was 81 Saturday and 83 yesterday. I believe 83 for the 21st is a record high. Previous record was 82 in 2010. I'm not seeing anything in the long-range 500mb pattern to suggest the Alaska ridge and west coast trof are going anywhere in the next two weeks. No sign of a pattern change.

[Stratton23]

Looks like good model agreement on a strong cold front just before new years eve, CMC looks chilly, GFS near average- slightly below normal, AI GFS is much colder than both, love to see it, this weather is beyond miserable, ill take any sort of front if it means good riddance to this terrible warmth

[TeamPlayersBlue]

As always, i think Ntx is on top of it. My $.02, with this particular nina pattern, we need MJO help. Otherwise, we fry. Just like now. 71 degrees here from Denver. I think it's been below freezing once in the last 2 1/2 weeks. Enough depression, lets look forward.

So, many are thinking we slip into a nino pattern soon. I did some light research on years where we transitioned from nina to a warmer ONI for the rest of winter. The years i came across were:
22-23
16-17
71-72
64-65

This is very rudimentary, but I'll start here. Not including QBO and solar. I have some time off, thinking of going on my deck to tan while I search NCAR sites. I shall report back later today.

[txtwister78]

Seems as if the extended forecast pattern has everyone in a state of confusion. Even Larry Cosgrove in his latest blog post seems a little puzzled about what January will hold.

Haha I just opened Facebook and the first post is about all the cold air coming in January

The second post is the TV met went to Utah to ski and he can't believe there's no snow at all....

Yeah I dunno guys maybe you should ask AI about winter again

I don't think there should be cold hype yet. In fact, the mild, unfavorable pattern is likely to continue...with breaks in it. I mean yeah it's not going to stay torch but a cold front that brings us 40s/50s for highs and light freezes isn't out of the ordinary for January. We're just looking for something to change and talk about but at best it will be mid-January, maybe.

If I know Larry Cosgrove from reading his views over the years, he always predicts a January thaw. Except there isn't anything to thaw from this time early. In fact the real thaw is this week!

Pretty much this. Great summary here. In fact if we were just going off the signal from the Euro weeklies we might even extend that timeline even further beyond mid January before we looked for any real change in this status quo "winter" but as we know from previous experience the weeklies aren't necessarily the "gold standard" in long range accurate prediction based forecast either.

I will say however the longer we go into January before we see any "real arctic cold" you begin to start tossing aside some of these colder analogs and start giving more credence to the warmer outcomes for winter as a whole.

[Stratton23]

Ive been around for some pretty bad winters down here, and this start is certainly not going in the right direction, i think we dont even make it to 100 pages on this thread for winter, and i dont think ive seen a forum for winter on here thats gone less than 100

[Stratton23]

on a more serious note, maybe even if we dont get super cold, we could still have other opportunities for some fun if we can get a couple of cold core lows to dig down into the state, not impossible even in warmer winters,

[wxman22]

With this weeks blowtorch I’ll be happy to just get back to seasonal with the front coming this weekend lol.

[TomballEd]

on a more serious note, maybe even if we dont get super cold, we could still have other opportunities for some fun if we can get a couple of cold core lows to dig down into the state, not impossible even in warmer winters,

What happened when cool days, maybe near 50F the day before in full sun is followed by snow because of very low dewpoints and an upper level low passing.

[Ntxw]

on a more serious note, maybe even if we dont get super cold, we could still have other opportunities for some fun if we can get a couple of cold core lows to dig down into the state, not impossible even in warmer winters,

What happened when cool days, maybe near 50F the day before in full sun is followed by snow because of very low dewpoints and an upper level low passing.

We have not had success with this in a long time. Warming climo isn't helping the borderline ULL events, DFW success in those are now more likely in Oklahoma comparatively. It will take something extremely anomalous. H5 temps have been on the rise slowly.